tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2644128867889684672011-11-27T19:14:23.945-05:00A place for me to post the results of some simple simulations of the 2008 presidential election based on political prediction market data.Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.comBlogger691100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-63290775235194438772008-11-05T01:06:00.004-05:002008-11-05T01:08:19.669-05:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Nov. 5. This is the last time I will post these numbers, and they're basically only interesting insofar as they give some insight into the potential magnitude of Obama's win. Thanks to everyone who's read over the past weeks!<br /><br />Matt<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 285+ 0.9998 | 285+ 0.0000<br /> 290+ 0.9996 | 290+ 0.0000<br /> 295+ 0.9992 | 295+ 0.0000<br /> 300+ 0.9986 | 300+ 0.0000<br /> 305+ 0.9980 | 305+ 0.0000<br /> 310+ 0.9950 | 310+ 0.0000<br /> 315+ 0.9929 | 315+ 0.0000<br /> 320+ 0.9911 | 320+ 0.0000<br /> 325+ 0.9881 | 325+ 0.0000<br /> 330+ 0.9846 | 330+ 0.0000<br /> 335+ 0.9764 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.9649 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.9448 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.9095 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.8417 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.7820 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.4779 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.2972 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1981 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0606 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0248 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0121 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0077 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0044 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0025 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0010 | 410+ 0.0000<br /> 415+ 0.0004 | 415+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-6329077523519443877?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-40577072824780165592008-11-04T23:34:00.002-05:002008-11-04T23:35:38.192-05:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes as of 11:34 pm. McCain has conceded, and at this point it's quite clear that the only question is how significant a margin it'll be.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 280+ 0.9998 | 280+ 0.0000<br /> 285+ 0.9996 | 285+ 0.0000<br /> 290+ 0.9994 | 290+ 0.0000<br /> 295+ 0.9988 | 295+ 0.0000<br /> 300+ 0.9980 | 300+ 0.0000<br /> 305+ 0.9972 | 305+ 0.0000<br /> 310+ 0.9949 | 310+ 0.0000<br /> 315+ 0.9929 | 315+ 0.0000<br /> 320+ 0.9904 | 320+ 0.0000<br /> 325+ 0.9859 | 325+ 0.0000<br /> 330+ 0.9798 | 330+ 0.0000<br /> 335+ 0.9699 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.9522 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.9244 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.8675 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.7954 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.7198 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.5170 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.3886 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.2975 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1313 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0809 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0577 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0415 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0280 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0190 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0093 | 410+ 0.0000<br /> 415+ 0.0041 | 415+ 0.0000<br /> 420+ 0.0016 | 420+ 0.0000<br /> 425+ 0.0005 | 425+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-4057707282478016559?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-77779991870642485762008-11-04T23:01:00.002-05:002008-11-04T23:02:15.779-05:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes at 11 pm. CNN has called VA and the election for Obama, and that seems not unreasonable at this point. It remains to be seen how many electoral votes he'll get.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 260+ 0.9998 | 260+ 0.0020<br /> 265+ 0.9996 | 265+ 0.0012<br /> 266+ 0.9995 | 266+ 0.0010<br /> 267+ 0.9995 | 267+ 0.0009<br /> 268+ 0.9994 | 268+ 0.0008<br /> 269+ 0.9993 | 269+ 0.0008<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9992 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0007<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9992 | 271+ 0.0006<br /> 272+ 0.9991 | 272+ 0.0005<br /> 273+ 0.9990 | 273+ 0.0005<br /> 274+ 0.9988 | 274+ 0.0004<br /> 275+ 0.9987 | 275+ 0.0004<br /> 280+ 0.9979 | 280+ 0.0002<br /> 285+ 0.9964 | 285+ 0.0001<br /> 290+ 0.9946 | 290+ 0.0001<br /> 295+ 0.9902 | 295+ 0.0000<br /> 300+ 0.9865 | 300+ 0.0000<br /> 305+ 0.9822 | 305+ 0.0000<br /> 310+ 0.9724 | 310+ 0.0000<br /> 315+ 0.9663 | 315+ 0.0000<br /> 320+ 0.9585 | 320+ 0.0000<br /> 325+ 0.9458 | 325+ 0.0000<br /> 330+ 0.9317 | 330+ 0.0000<br /> 335+ 0.9127 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.8790 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.8407 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.7451 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.6679 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.5856 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.3939 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.3095 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.2351 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1154 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0741 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0491 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0309 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0208 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0146 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0067 | 410+ 0.0000<br /> 415+ 0.0035 | 415+ 0.0000<br /> 420+ 0.0014 | 420+ 0.0000<br /> 425+ 0.0005 | 425+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-7777999187064248576?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-25380468063471896432008-11-04T22:24:00.002-05:002008-11-04T22:25:08.857-05:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes as of 10:24 pm. Very likely Obama will make it over 350 electoral votes, still about a 1 in 4 chance of getting 375+.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 260+ 0.9998 | 260+ 0.0020<br /> 265+ 0.9996 | 265+ 0.0012<br /> 266+ 0.9995 | 266+ 0.0011<br /> 267+ 0.9994 | 267+ 0.0010<br /> 268+ 0.9993 | 268+ 0.0009<br /> 269+ 0.9993 | 269+ 0.0008<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9992 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0007<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9991 | 271+ 0.0007<br /> 272+ 0.9990 | 272+ 0.0006<br /> 273+ 0.9989 | 273+ 0.0005<br /> 274+ 0.9988 | 274+ 0.0004<br /> 275+ 0.9986 | 275+ 0.0004<br /> 280+ 0.9978 | 280+ 0.0002<br /> 285+ 0.9962 | 285+ 0.0001<br /> 290+ 0.9942 | 290+ 0.0001<br /> 295+ 0.9907 | 295+ 0.0000<br /> 300+ 0.9863 | 300+ 0.0000<br /> 305+ 0.9817 | 305+ 0.0000<br /> 310+ 0.9729 | 310+ 0.0000<br /> 315+ 0.9659 | 315+ 0.0000<br /> 320+ 0.9577 | 320+ 0.0000<br /> 325+ 0.9455 | 325+ 0.0000<br /> 330+ 0.9308 | 330+ 0.0000<br /> 335+ 0.9112 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.8762 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.8329 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.7582 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.6668 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.5802 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.4157 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.3158 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.2325 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1207 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0783 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0502 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0340 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0226 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0151 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0078 | 410+ 0.0000<br /> 415+ 0.0039 | 415+ 0.0000<br /> 420+ 0.0016 | 420+ 0.0000<br /> 425+ 0.0006 | 425+ 0.0000<br /> 430+ 0.0002 | 430+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-2538046806347189643?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-26624454478407535932008-11-04T21:49:00.001-05:002008-11-04T21:49:40.476-05:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes as of 9:49 pm.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 255+ 0.9997 | 255+ 0.0047<br /> 260+ 0.9995 | 260+ 0.0031<br /> 265+ 0.9992 | 265+ 0.0019<br /> 266+ 0.9991 | 266+ 0.0018<br /> 267+ 0.9991 | 267+ 0.0016<br /> 268+ 0.9989 | 268+ 0.0014<br /> 269+ 0.9988 | 269+ 0.0013<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9987 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0012<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9986 | 271+ 0.0011<br /> 272+ 0.9984 | 272+ 0.0009<br /> 273+ 0.9982 | 273+ 0.0009<br /> 274+ 0.9981 | 274+ 0.0008<br /> 275+ 0.9979 | 275+ 0.0007<br /> 280+ 0.9967 | 280+ 0.0004<br /> 285+ 0.9950 | 285+ 0.0002<br /> 290+ 0.9925 | 290+ 0.0001<br /> 295+ 0.9892 | 295+ 0.0001<br /> 300+ 0.9845 | 300+ 0.0000<br /> 305+ 0.9789 | 305+ 0.0000<br /> 310+ 0.9700 | 310+ 0.0000<br /> 315+ 0.9612 | 315+ 0.0000<br /> 320+ 0.9500 | 320+ 0.0000<br /> 325+ 0.9342 | 325+ 0.0000<br /> 330+ 0.9137 | 330+ 0.0000<br /> 335+ 0.8884 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.8509 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.8004 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.7370 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.6472 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.5547 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.4156 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.3150 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.2214 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1227 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0734 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0477 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0334 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0229 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0150 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0082 | 410+ 0.0000<br /> 415+ 0.0042 | 415+ 0.0000<br /> 420+ 0.0015 | 420+ 0.0000<br /> 425+ 0.0006 | 425+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-2662445447840753593?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-13526280620395376002008-11-04T21:15:00.000-05:002008-11-04T21:16:41.485-05:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes as of 9:16<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 255+ 0.9997 | 255+ 0.0051<br /> 260+ 0.9994 | 260+ 0.0034<br /> 265+ 0.9991 | 265+ 0.0022<br /> 266+ 0.9990 | 266+ 0.0020<br /> 267+ 0.9989 | 267+ 0.0018<br /> 268+ 0.9987 | 268+ 0.0017<br /> 269+ 0.9986 | 269+ 0.0015<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9985 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0014<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9983 | 271+ 0.0013<br /> 272+ 0.9982 | 272+ 0.0011<br /> 273+ 0.9980 | 273+ 0.0010<br /> 274+ 0.9978 | 274+ 0.0009<br /> 275+ 0.9976 | 275+ 0.0008<br /> 280+ 0.9964 | 280+ 0.0005<br /> 285+ 0.9945 | 285+ 0.0003<br /> 290+ 0.9920 | 290+ 0.0002<br /> 295+ 0.9886 | 295+ 0.0001<br /> 300+ 0.9839 | 300+ 0.0001<br /> 305+ 0.9782 | 305+ 0.0000<br /> 310+ 0.9697 | 310+ 0.0000<br /> 315+ 0.9604 | 315+ 0.0000<br /> 320+ 0.9483 | 320+ 0.0000<br /> 325+ 0.9317 | 325+ 0.0000<br /> 330+ 0.9107 | 330+ 0.0000<br /> 335+ 0.8834 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.8457 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.7949 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.7326 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.6501 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.5639 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.4456 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.3494 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.2599 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1679 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.1098 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0761 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0544 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0382 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0263 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0155 | 410+ 0.0000<br /> 415+ 0.0087 | 415+ 0.0000<br /> 420+ 0.0038 | 420+ 0.0000<br /> 425+ 0.0015 | 425+ 0.0000<br /> 430+ 0.0005 | 430+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-1352628062039537600?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-19550296442779560302008-11-04T20:39:00.002-05:002008-11-04T20:41:37.884-05:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes at 8:39 pm. Still looks terrible for McCain. At this point, the question is probably how much of an Obama landslide are we looking at. Fortunately, I have some numbers about that too. Like a 26.67% chance of 375+ electoral votes, for example.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 255+ 0.9997 | 255+ 0.0049<br /> 260+ 0.9994 | 260+ 0.0033<br /> 265+ 0.9991 | 265+ 0.0022<br /> 266+ 0.9990 | 266+ 0.0020<br /> 267+ 0.9989 | 267+ 0.0018<br /> 268+ 0.9988 | 268+ 0.0016<br /> 269+ 0.9986 | 269+ 0.0015<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9985 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0014<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9984 | 271+ 0.0012<br /> 272+ 0.9982 | 272+ 0.0011<br /> 273+ 0.9980 | 273+ 0.0010<br /> 274+ 0.9978 | 274+ 0.0009<br /> 275+ 0.9977 | 275+ 0.0008<br /> 280+ 0.9964 | 280+ 0.0005<br /> 285+ 0.9946 | 285+ 0.0003<br /> 290+ 0.9922 | 290+ 0.0002<br /> 295+ 0.9888 | 295+ 0.0001<br /> 300+ 0.9842 | 300+ 0.0001<br /> 305+ 0.9786 | 305+ 0.0000<br /> 310+ 0.9705 | 310+ 0.0000<br /> 315+ 0.9610 | 315+ 0.0000<br /> 320+ 0.9489 | 320+ 0.0000<br /> 325+ 0.9323 | 325+ 0.0000<br /> 330+ 0.9114 | 330+ 0.0000<br /> 335+ 0.8847 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.8478 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.7993 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.7379 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.6593 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.5739 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.4636 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.3607 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.2667 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1669 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.1007 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0632 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0408 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0279 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0190 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0119 | 410+ 0.0000<br /> 415+ 0.0069 | 415+ 0.0000<br /> 420+ 0.0032 | 420+ 0.0000<br /> 425+ 0.0013 | 425+ 0.0000<br /> 430+ 0.0005 | 430+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-1955029644277956030?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-1299596156361399672008-11-04T20:18:00.001-05:002008-11-04T20:18:50.634-05:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes at 8:18 pm. Obama gets a 99.91% chance of winning. Wow.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 260+ 0.9997 | 260+ 0.0022<br /> 265+ 0.9994 | 265+ 0.0014<br /> 266+ 0.9994 | 266+ 0.0012<br /> 267+ 0.9993 | 267+ 0.0011<br /> 268+ 0.9992 | 268+ 0.0010<br /> 269+ 0.9992 | 269+ 0.0009<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9991 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0008<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9990 | 271+ 0.0008<br /> 272+ 0.9989 | 272+ 0.0007<br /> 273+ 0.9988 | 273+ 0.0006<br /> 274+ 0.9986 | 274+ 0.0006<br /> 275+ 0.9985 | 275+ 0.0005<br /> 280+ 0.9976 | 280+ 0.0003<br /> 285+ 0.9963 | 285+ 0.0002<br /> 290+ 0.9945 | 290+ 0.0001<br /> 295+ 0.9918 | 295+ 0.0001<br /> 300+ 0.9882 | 300+ 0.0000<br /> 305+ 0.9836 | 305+ 0.0000<br /> 310+ 0.9769 | 310+ 0.0000<br /> 315+ 0.9694 | 315+ 0.0000<br /> 320+ 0.9600 | 320+ 0.0000<br /> 325+ 0.9468 | 325+ 0.0000<br /> 330+ 0.9312 | 330+ 0.0000<br /> 335+ 0.9110 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.8822 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.8432 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.7915 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.7220 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.6439 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.5349 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.4318 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.3341 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.2169 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.1444 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0973 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0603 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0393 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0261 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0164 | 410+ 0.0000<br /> 415+ 0.0101 | 415+ 0.0000<br /> 420+ 0.0056 | 420+ 0.0000<br /> 425+ 0.0028 | 425+ 0.0000<br /> 430+ 0.0014 | 430+ 0.0000<br /> 435+ 0.0005 | 435+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-129959615636139967?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-6036119021691305602008-11-04T19:52:00.002-05:002008-11-04T19:54:37.259-05:00I'll be continuing to post new numbers every so often (1-2 times an hour, probably) until I<br /><br />1. Get bored, because it's clearly over.<br />2. Go to sleep, because I'm "tired."<br /><br />These numbers may include some very random noise having to do with wide bid-ask spreads.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-603611902169130560?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-47029423723898809112008-11-04T19:51:00.000-05:002008-11-04T19:52:11.784-05:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes at 7:51 pm.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 250+ 0.9990 | 250+ 0.0182<br /> 255+ 0.9984 | 255+ 0.0134<br /> 260+ 0.9976 | 260+ 0.0097<br /> 265+ 0.9964 | 265+ 0.0069<br /> 266+ 0.9961 | 266+ 0.0064<br /> 267+ 0.9958 | 267+ 0.0060<br /> 268+ 0.9955 | 268+ 0.0056<br /> 269+ 0.9951 | 269+ 0.0052<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9948 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0049<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9944 | 271+ 0.0045<br /> 272+ 0.9940 | 272+ 0.0042<br /> 273+ 0.9936 | 273+ 0.0039<br /> 274+ 0.9931 | 274+ 0.0036<br /> 275+ 0.9926 | 275+ 0.0033<br /> 280+ 0.9897 | 280+ 0.0022<br /> 285+ 0.9857 | 285+ 0.0015<br /> 290+ 0.9806 | 290+ 0.0009<br /> 295+ 0.9737 | 295+ 0.0006<br /> 300+ 0.9648 | 300+ 0.0004<br /> 305+ 0.9530 | 305+ 0.0002<br /> 310+ 0.9370 | 310+ 0.0001<br /> 315+ 0.9171 | 315+ 0.0001<br /> 320+ 0.8911 | 320+ 0.0000<br /> 325+ 0.8580 | 325+ 0.0000<br /> 330+ 0.8164 | 330+ 0.0000<br /> 335+ 0.7680 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.7086 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.6412 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.5661 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.4848 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.4054 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.3174 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.2442 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1808 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1205 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0809 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0534 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0342 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0220 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0140 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0086 | 410+ 0.0000<br /> 415+ 0.0052 | 415+ 0.0000<br /> 420+ 0.0029 | 420+ 0.0000<br /> 425+ 0.0015 | 425+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-4702942372389880911?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-52399762029737076222008-11-04T19:14:00.003-05:002008-11-04T19:15:44.170-05:00EDIT: Virginia's now above 90% for Obama on Intrade.<br /><br />Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes at 7:14 pm. The worst numbers for McCain so far.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 260+ 0.9988 | 260+ 0.0056<br /> 265+ 0.9981 | 265+ 0.0038<br /> 266+ 0.9980 | 266+ 0.0035<br /> 267+ 0.9978 | 267+ 0.0033<br /> 268+ 0.9976 | 268+ 0.0030<br /> 269+ 0.9974 | 269+ 0.0028<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9972 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0026<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9970 | 271+ 0.0024<br /> 272+ 0.9967 | 272+ 0.0022<br /> 273+ 0.9965 | 273+ 0.0020<br /> 274+ 0.9962 | 274+ 0.0019<br /> 275+ 0.9958 | 275+ 0.0017<br /> 280+ 0.9940 | 280+ 0.0011<br /> 285+ 0.9916 | 285+ 0.0007<br /> 290+ 0.9882 | 290+ 0.0004<br /> 295+ 0.9838 | 295+ 0.0003<br /> 300+ 0.9781 | 300+ 0.0001<br /> 305+ 0.9706 | 305+ 0.0001<br /> 310+ 0.9602 | 310+ 0.0000<br /> 315+ 0.9472 | 315+ 0.0000<br /> 320+ 0.9300 | 320+ 0.0000<br /> 325+ 0.9074 | 325+ 0.0000<br /> 330+ 0.8782 | 330+ 0.0000<br /> 335+ 0.8426 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.7979 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.7430 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.6793 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.6069 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.5295 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.4393 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.3565 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.2793 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1976 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.1384 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0948 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0609 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0391 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0250 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0159 | 410+ 0.0000<br /> 415+ 0.0101 | 415+ 0.0000<br /> 420+ 0.0061 | 420+ 0.0000<br /> 425+ 0.0034 | 425+ 0.0000<br /> 430+ 0.0018 | 430+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-5239976202973707622?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-12472289724828694092008-11-04T15:47:00.000-05:002008-11-04T15:48:16.759-05:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes as of 3:47 pm, Tue. Nov. 4.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 260+ 0.9985 | 260+ 0.0065<br /> 265+ 0.9977 | 265+ 0.0045<br /> 266+ 0.9976 | 266+ 0.0042<br /> 267+ 0.9974 | 267+ 0.0039<br /> 268+ 0.9971 | 268+ 0.0036<br /> 269+ 0.9969 | 269+ 0.0033<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9967 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0031<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9964 | 271+ 0.0029<br /> 272+ 0.9961 | 272+ 0.0026<br /> 273+ 0.9958 | 273+ 0.0024<br /> 274+ 0.9955 | 274+ 0.0023<br /> 275+ 0.9951 | 275+ 0.0021<br /> 280+ 0.9930 | 280+ 0.0014<br /> 285+ 0.9900 | 285+ 0.0009<br /> 290+ 0.9857 | 290+ 0.0006<br /> 295+ 0.9794 | 295+ 0.0004<br /> 300+ 0.9709 | 300+ 0.0002<br /> 305+ 0.9589 | 305+ 0.0001<br /> 310+ 0.9422 | 310+ 0.0001<br /> 315+ 0.9200 | 315+ 0.0000<br /> 320+ 0.8913 | 320+ 0.0000<br /> 325+ 0.8548 | 325+ 0.0000<br /> 330+ 0.8080 | 330+ 0.0000<br /> 335+ 0.7552 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.6914 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.6192 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.5415 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.4600 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.3793 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.2964 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.2270 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1669 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1144 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0782 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0519 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0333 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0213 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0133 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0082 | 410+ 0.0000<br /> 415+ 0.0050 | 415+ 0.0000<br /> 420+ 0.0028 | 420+ 0.0000<br /> 425+ 0.0015 | 425+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-1247228972482869409?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-86573652227027828202008-11-04T08:50:00.001-05:002008-11-04T08:50:52.632-05:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Tue. Nov. 4, as voting begins.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 255+ 0.9988 | 255+ 0.0110<br /> 260+ 0.9982 | 260+ 0.0077<br /> 265+ 0.9973 | 265+ 0.0053<br /> 266+ 0.9971 | 266+ 0.0050<br /> 267+ 0.9968 | 267+ 0.0046<br /> 268+ 0.9966 | 268+ 0.0043<br /> 269+ 0.9963 | 269+ 0.0040<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9960 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0037<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9957 | 271+ 0.0034<br /> 272+ 0.9954 | 272+ 0.0032<br /> 273+ 0.9950 | 273+ 0.0029<br /> 274+ 0.9947 | 274+ 0.0027<br /> 275+ 0.9942 | 275+ 0.0025<br /> 280+ 0.9918 | 280+ 0.0017<br /> 285+ 0.9882 | 285+ 0.0011<br /> 290+ 0.9832 | 290+ 0.0007<br /> 295+ 0.9760 | 295+ 0.0005<br /> 300+ 0.9664 | 300+ 0.0003<br /> 305+ 0.9531 | 305+ 0.0002<br /> 310+ 0.9348 | 310+ 0.0001<br /> 315+ 0.9110 | 315+ 0.0001<br /> 320+ 0.8803 | 320+ 0.0000<br /> 325+ 0.8420 | 325+ 0.0000<br /> 330+ 0.7937 | 330+ 0.0000<br /> 335+ 0.7390 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.6741 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.6012 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.5235 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.4427 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.3632 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.2836 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.2168 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1591 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1098 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0755 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0500 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0322 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0206 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0129 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0079 | 410+ 0.0000<br /> 415+ 0.0048 | 415+ 0.0000<br /> 420+ 0.0027 | 420+ 0.0000<br /> 425+ 0.0015 | 425+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-8657365222702782820?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-18200220819018107672008-11-03T19:20:00.002-05:002008-11-03T19:24:39.111-05:00To be honest, I didn't expect the gap between my state-by-state simulations and the national contracts to continue to this extent for this long.<br /><br />Prior to this point, it was completely plausible that the national contract was taking into account the possibility of some external event that would convince many people across the nation to vote for McCain, causing the state-by-state results to move together in a way that my simulations don't model. At this point, that seems pretty unlikely.<br /><br />So why the continuing discrepancy? Well, it's possible that people trading state-by-state contracts just have different opinions/information/motivation than the (more numerous) people trading the national contracts. But that suggests the possibility of an arbitrage opportunity (albeit not a risk-free opportunity). Let's assume for argument's sake that the national numbers and the state-by-state numbers are in fact consistent. <br /><br />In that case, the only explanation I can think of is that the market truly believes that there's about a 9% chance that there's something that could turn the election McCain's way that they haven't taken into account when pricing the state-by-state contracts. That something could be a massive Bradley effect or some set of legal challenges, for example. (An assassination of Obama wouldn't account for it, since there's not much spread between the Obama-wins-president and Democrat-wins-president contracts.)<br /><br />But my guess is that it's just that some people want to bet on McCain because they want him to win rather than because they think it's a good investment, and that those people are betting on the national contract because they care more about McCain winning overall than they care about the outcome in any particular state.<br /><br />What are your thoughts?<br /><br />By the way, I'll be posting with significantly higher than average frequency tomorrow. It should be interesting to see if any "insider traders" who know something about early returns wind up moving the state-by-state prices. Stay tuned!<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-1820022081901810767?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-89652329784801036272008-11-03T19:03:00.003-05:002008-11-03T19:20:32.496-05:00Below are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Mon. Nov. 3, on the eve of the election. McCain's chances of winning have dropped to 0.39%, according to the Intrade state-by-state numbers. The McCain-to-win front-page contract gives him a 9.8% chance to win.<br /><br />As always, each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 255+ 0.9987 | 255+ 0.0117<br /> 260+ 0.9980 | 260+ 0.0082<br /> 265+ 0.9971 | 265+ 0.0057<br /> 266+ 0.9969 | 266+ 0.0053<br /> 267+ 0.9966 | 267+ 0.0049<br /> 268+ 0.9963 | 268+ 0.0046<br /> 269+ 0.9961 | 269+ 0.0042<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9958 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0039<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9954 | 271+ 0.0037<br /> 272+ 0.9951 | 272+ 0.0034<br /> 273+ 0.9947 | 273+ 0.0031<br /> 274+ 0.9943 | 274+ 0.0029<br /> 275+ 0.9939 | 275+ 0.0027<br /> 280+ 0.9912 | 280+ 0.0018<br /> 285+ 0.9874 | 285+ 0.0012<br /> 290+ 0.9821 | 290+ 0.0008<br /> 295+ 0.9746 | 295+ 0.0005<br /> 300+ 0.9644 | 300+ 0.0003<br /> 305+ 0.9504 | 305+ 0.0002<br /> 310+ 0.9313 | 310+ 0.0001<br /> 315+ 0.9067 | 315+ 0.0001<br /> 320+ 0.8751 | 320+ 0.0000<br /> 325+ 0.8357 | 325+ 0.0000<br /> 330+ 0.7867 | 330+ 0.0000<br /> 335+ 0.7311 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.6658 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.5928 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.5159 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.4356 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.3569 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.2792 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.2130 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1561 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1079 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0740 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0489 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0315 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0202 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0126 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0078 | 410+ 0.0000<br /> 415+ 0.0047 | 415+ 0.0000<br /> 420+ 0.0027 | 420+ 0.0000<br /> 425+ 0.0014 | 425+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-8965232978480103627?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-69704434475976729272008-11-03T08:40:00.002-05:002008-11-03T08:43:37.371-05:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Mon. Nov. 3, the last day before the election. Apparently traders on Intrade have become significantly more confident in Obama's chances since yesterday -- his national Obama-to-win contract is above 90% for the first time I can think of, and my state-by-state simulations give McCain about a 0.5% chance to win.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 260+ 0.9972 | 260+ 0.0114<br /> 265+ 0.9959 | 265+ 0.0080<br /> 266+ 0.9955 | 266+ 0.0074<br /> 267+ 0.9952 | 267+ 0.0069<br /> 268+ 0.9948 | 268+ 0.0064<br /> 269+ 0.9944 | 269+ 0.0060<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9940 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0056<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9936 | 271+ 0.0052<br /> 272+ 0.9931 | 272+ 0.0048<br /> 273+ 0.9926 | 273+ 0.0045<br /> 274+ 0.9920 | 274+ 0.0041<br /> 275+ 0.9914 | 275+ 0.0039<br /> 280+ 0.9878 | 280+ 0.0026<br /> 285+ 0.9828 | 285+ 0.0018<br /> 290+ 0.9758 | 290+ 0.0012<br /> 295+ 0.9661 | 295+ 0.0008<br /> 300+ 0.9532 | 300+ 0.0005<br /> 305+ 0.9361 | 305+ 0.0003<br /> 310+ 0.9133 | 310+ 0.0002<br /> 315+ 0.8848 | 315+ 0.0001<br /> 320+ 0.8491 | 320+ 0.0001<br /> 325+ 0.8057 | 325+ 0.0000<br /> 330+ 0.7533 | 330+ 0.0000<br /> 335+ 0.6946 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.6277 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.5544 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.4787 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.4013 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.3264 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.2537 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1925 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1401 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0964 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0655 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0429 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0274 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0173 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0107 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0065 | 410+ 0.0000<br /> 415+ 0.0039 | 415+ 0.0000<br /> 420+ 0.0022 | 420+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-6970443447597672927?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-36176992518298718522008-11-02T12:17:00.001-05:002008-11-02T12:18:34.049-05:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Nov. 2. Obama's national numbers picked up a bit from yesterday, to 88%.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at <br />269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 269+ 0.9894 | 269+ 0.0113<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9887 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0106<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9880 | 271+ 0.0099<br /> 272+ 0.9871 | 272+ 0.0093<br /> 273+ 0.9863 | 273+ 0.0087<br /> 274+ 0.9854 | 274+ 0.0081<br /> 275+ 0.9844 | 275+ 0.0076<br /> 280+ 0.9788 | 280+ 0.0054<br /> 285+ 0.9711 | 285+ 0.0038<br /> 290+ 0.9609 | 290+ 0.0026<br /> 295+ 0.9473 | 295+ 0.0018<br /> 300+ 0.9299 | 300+ 0.0012<br /> 305+ 0.9074 | 305+ 0.0008<br /> 310+ 0.8787 | 310+ 0.0005<br /> 315+ 0.8435 | 315+ 0.0003<br /> 320+ 0.8012 | 320+ 0.0002<br /> 325+ 0.7513 | 325+ 0.0001<br /> 330+ 0.6934 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.6305 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.5614 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.4885 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.4150 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3429 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.2743 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.2107 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1578 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1132 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0776 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0523 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0341 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0217 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0137 | 400+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-3617699251829871852?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-90829018553203469812008-11-01T13:16:00.001-04:002008-11-01T13:16:30.470-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sat. Nov. 1. Not much change from the range we've been seeing recently.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 265+ 0.9881 | 265+ 0.0210<br /> 266+ 0.9873 | 266+ 0.0197<br /> 267+ 0.9865 | 267+ 0.0186<br /> 268+ 0.9856 | 268+ 0.0174<br /> 269+ 0.9846 | 269+ 0.0163<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9837 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0154<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9826 | 271+ 0.0144<br /> 272+ 0.9814 | 272+ 0.0135<br /> 273+ 0.9803 | 273+ 0.0127<br /> 274+ 0.9790 | 274+ 0.0119<br /> 275+ 0.9776 | 275+ 0.0112<br /> 280+ 0.9697 | 280+ 0.0080<br /> 285+ 0.9590 | 285+ 0.0057<br /> 290+ 0.9450 | 290+ 0.0040<br /> 295+ 0.9267 | 295+ 0.0028<br /> 300+ 0.9035 | 300+ 0.0019<br /> 305+ 0.8744 | 305+ 0.0013<br /> 310+ 0.8385 | 310+ 0.0008<br /> 315+ 0.7959 | 315+ 0.0005<br /> 320+ 0.7460 | 320+ 0.0003<br /> 325+ 0.6894 | 325+ 0.0002<br /> 330+ 0.6264 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.5597 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.4897 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.4183 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.3491 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.2834 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.2231 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.1690 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1247 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.0884 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0599 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0398 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0256 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0161 | 395+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-9082901855320346981?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-86588260013732520092008-10-31T18:33:00.001-04:002008-10-31T18:33:37.652-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the evening of Fri. Oct. 31.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 268+ 0.9894 | 268+ 0.0129<br /> 269+ 0.9887 | 269+ 0.0121<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9879 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0113<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9871 | 271+ 0.0106<br /> 272+ 0.9863 | 272+ 0.0099<br /> 273+ 0.9854 | 273+ 0.0093<br /> 274+ 0.9844 | 274+ 0.0087<br /> 275+ 0.9834 | 275+ 0.0082<br /> 280+ 0.9774 | 280+ 0.0058<br /> 285+ 0.9693 | 285+ 0.0041<br /> 290+ 0.9585 | 290+ 0.0028<br /> 295+ 0.9443 | 295+ 0.0019<br /> 300+ 0.9260 | 300+ 0.0013<br /> 305+ 0.9025 | 305+ 0.0009<br /> 310+ 0.8727 | 310+ 0.0006<br /> 315+ 0.8365 | 315+ 0.0003<br /> 320+ 0.7929 | 320+ 0.0002<br /> 325+ 0.7418 | 325+ 0.0001<br /> 330+ 0.6831 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.6193 | 335+ 0.0000<br /> 340+ 0.5498 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.4767 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.4037 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3322 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.2648 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.2025 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1507 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1075 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0730 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0486 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0314 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0198 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0123 | 400+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-8658826001373252009?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-40123443184388433532008-10-31T08:57:00.002-04:002008-10-31T09:00:35.598-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Fri. Oct. 31. McCain's chances of winning are down to 1.16%. [Insert trick-or-treat joke here.] The national Obama-to-win contract is sitting at 85%. Just a few days to go!<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at <br />269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 267+ 0.9898 | 267+ 0.0141<br /> 268+ 0.9891 | 268+ 0.0132<br /> 269+ 0.9884 | 269+ 0.0124<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9876 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0116<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9868 | 271+ 0.0109<br /> 272+ 0.9859 | 272+ 0.0102<br /> 273+ 0.9850 | 273+ 0.0096<br /> 274+ 0.9840 | 274+ 0.0090<br /> 275+ 0.9829 | 275+ 0.0084<br /> 280+ 0.9768 | 280+ 0.0060<br /> 285+ 0.9685 | 285+ 0.0042<br /> 290+ 0.9575 | 290+ 0.0029<br /> 295+ 0.9432 | 295+ 0.0020<br /> 300+ 0.9247 | 300+ 0.0014<br /> 305+ 0.9012 | 305+ 0.0009<br /> 310+ 0.8716 | 310+ 0.0006<br /> 315+ 0.8357 | 315+ 0.0004<br /> 320+ 0.7927 | 320+ 0.0002<br /> 325+ 0.7425 | 325+ 0.0001<br /> 330+ 0.6849 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.6220 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.5538 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.4820 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.4098 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3393 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.2724 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.2103 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1580 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1142 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0785 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0529 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0345 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0219 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0137 | 400+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-4012344318438843353?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-11520179875693428512008-10-30T08:37:00.002-04:002008-10-30T08:39:27.108-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Oct. 30, a mere 5 days from election day (for those not counting the minutes). Although his national contract is down to 84.5%, Obama's state-by-state numbers look as good as ever after a momentary (and small) post-infomercial blip last night.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 266+ 0.9894 | 266+ 0.0165<br /> 267+ 0.9887 | 267+ 0.0155<br /> 268+ 0.9880 | 268+ 0.0146<br /> 269+ 0.9872 | 269+ 0.0136<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9864 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0128<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9854 | 271+ 0.0120<br /> 272+ 0.9845 | 272+ 0.0113<br /> 273+ 0.9835 | 273+ 0.0106<br /> 274+ 0.9824 | 274+ 0.0099<br /> 275+ 0.9813 | 275+ 0.0093<br /> 280+ 0.9746 | 280+ 0.0066<br /> 285+ 0.9656 | 285+ 0.0047<br /> 290+ 0.9537 | 290+ 0.0033<br /> 295+ 0.9382 | 295+ 0.0023<br /> 300+ 0.9184 | 300+ 0.0015<br /> 305+ 0.8932 | 305+ 0.0010<br /> 310+ 0.8618 | 310+ 0.0007<br /> 315+ 0.8239 | 315+ 0.0004<br /> 320+ 0.7788 | 320+ 0.0003<br /> 325+ 0.7267 | 325+ 0.0002<br /> 330+ 0.6674 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.6035 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.5346 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.4631 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.3917 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3227 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.2580 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.1985 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1492 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1078 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0747 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0508 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0336 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0217 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0138 | 400+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-1152017987569342851?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-27973150506886007212008-10-29T21:42:00.002-04:002008-10-29T21:44:02.319-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Oct. 29, following Obama's paid 30-minute national infomercial. This is the lowest he's been at in days, although 98% still isn't bad. He's down a couple of points in the national contract as well.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at <br />269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 260+ 0.9891 | 260+ 0.0329<br /> 265+ 0.9852 | 265+ 0.0249<br /> 266+ 0.9843 | 266+ 0.0236<br /> 267+ 0.9833 | 267+ 0.0223<br /> 268+ 0.9823 | 268+ 0.0210<br /> 269+ 0.9813 | 269+ 0.0198<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9802 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0187<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9790 | 271+ 0.0177<br /> 272+ 0.9777 | 272+ 0.0167<br /> 273+ 0.9764 | 273+ 0.0157<br /> 274+ 0.9751 | 274+ 0.0148<br /> 275+ 0.9736 | 275+ 0.0140<br /> 280+ 0.9653 | 280+ 0.0103<br /> 285+ 0.9546 | 285+ 0.0074<br /> 290+ 0.9411 | 290+ 0.0053<br /> 295+ 0.9239 | 295+ 0.0037<br /> 300+ 0.9026 | 300+ 0.0026<br /> 305+ 0.8761 | 305+ 0.0017<br /> 310+ 0.8438 | 310+ 0.0011<br /> 315+ 0.8054 | 315+ 0.0007<br /> 320+ 0.7603 | 320+ 0.0005<br /> 325+ 0.7086 | 325+ 0.0003<br /> 330+ 0.6504 | 330+ 0.0002<br /> 335+ 0.5878 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.5208 | 340+ 0.0001<br /> 345+ 0.4513 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.3820 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3152 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.2525 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.1951 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1470 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1068 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0745 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0510 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0339 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0219 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0140 | 400+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-2797315050688600721?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-44748364860736317682008-10-29T09:16:00.000-04:002008-10-29T09:17:01.342-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Oct. 29. Obama's national contract is currently sitting at an 87.8% chance for him to win.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at <br />269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 265+ 0.9877 | 265+ 0.0210<br /> 266+ 0.9869 | 266+ 0.0198<br /> 267+ 0.9861 | 267+ 0.0187<br /> 268+ 0.9852 | 268+ 0.0177<br /> 269+ 0.9843 | 269+ 0.0166<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9834 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0157<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9823 | 271+ 0.0148<br /> 272+ 0.9813 | 272+ 0.0139<br /> 273+ 0.9802 | 273+ 0.0131<br /> 274+ 0.9790 | 274+ 0.0123<br /> 275+ 0.9777 | 275+ 0.0116<br /> 280+ 0.9706 | 280+ 0.0085<br /> 285+ 0.9613 | 285+ 0.0061<br /> 290+ 0.9496 | 290+ 0.0043<br /> 295+ 0.9347 | 295+ 0.0030<br /> 300+ 0.9161 | 300+ 0.0020<br /> 305+ 0.8930 | 305+ 0.0014<br /> 310+ 0.8645 | 310+ 0.0009<br /> 315+ 0.8304 | 315+ 0.0006<br /> 320+ 0.7897 | 320+ 0.0004<br /> 325+ 0.7425 | 325+ 0.0002<br /> 330+ 0.6883 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.6289 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.5641 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.4954 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.4257 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3566 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.2905 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.2286 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1754 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1299 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0924 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0644 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0437 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0289 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0188 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0120 | 405+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-4474836486073631768?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-70091031026845965012008-10-28T19:49:00.000-04:002008-10-28T19:50:26.711-04:00Sorry for the delay, here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Oct. 28.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 265+ 0.9888 | 265+ 0.0192<br /> 266+ 0.9881 | 266+ 0.0181<br /> 267+ 0.9874 | 267+ 0.0171<br /> 268+ 0.9866 | 268+ 0.0161<br /> 269+ 0.9857 | 269+ 0.0151<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9849 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0143<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9839 | 271+ 0.0134<br /> 272+ 0.9829 | 272+ 0.0126<br /> 273+ 0.9819 | 273+ 0.0119<br /> 274+ 0.9808 | 274+ 0.0112<br /> 275+ 0.9797 | 275+ 0.0105<br /> 280+ 0.9730 | 280+ 0.0076<br /> 285+ 0.9645 | 285+ 0.0054<br /> 290+ 0.9536 | 290+ 0.0038<br /> 295+ 0.9398 | 295+ 0.0026<br /> 300+ 0.9224 | 300+ 0.0018<br /> 305+ 0.9005 | 305+ 0.0012<br /> 310+ 0.8734 | 310+ 0.0008<br /> 315+ 0.8406 | 315+ 0.0005<br /> 320+ 0.8013 | 320+ 0.0003<br /> 325+ 0.7553 | 325+ 0.0002<br /> 330+ 0.7020 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.6432 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.5787 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.5097 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.4391 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3687 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.3007 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.2365 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1808 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1331 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0936 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0641 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0425 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0273 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0173 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0107 | 405+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-7009103102684596501?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-71928197190382975792008-10-27T14:14:00.003-04:002008-10-27T14:16:14.093-04:00My laptop is being repaired, and since I forgot to transfer the scripts I use to generate the numbers I post here I'm afraid there won't be any new posts until tomorrow evening, probably around 6-7pm Eastern.<br /><br />Many apologies.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-7192819719038297579?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-25496934737804956082008-10-26T09:44:00.000-04:002008-10-26T09:45:41.608-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Oct. 26. The national contracts give Obama an 87% chance to win.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 265+ 0.9884 | 265+ 0.0198<br /> 266+ 0.9877 | 266+ 0.0187<br /> 267+ 0.9869 | 267+ 0.0176<br /> 268+ 0.9861 | 268+ 0.0166<br /> 269+ 0.9852 | 269+ 0.0157<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9843 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0148<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9834 | 271+ 0.0139<br /> 272+ 0.9824 | 272+ 0.0131<br /> 273+ 0.9813 | 273+ 0.0123<br /> 274+ 0.9802 | 274+ 0.0116<br /> 275+ 0.9790 | 275+ 0.0109<br /> 280+ 0.9722 | 280+ 0.0079<br /> 285+ 0.9635 | 285+ 0.0057<br /> 290+ 0.9524 | 290+ 0.0040<br /> 295+ 0.9382 | 295+ 0.0028<br /> 300+ 0.9204 | 300+ 0.0019<br /> 305+ 0.8983 | 305+ 0.0013<br /> 310+ 0.8709 | 310+ 0.0008<br /> 315+ 0.8380 | 315+ 0.0005<br /> 320+ 0.7987 | 320+ 0.0003<br /> 325+ 0.7529 | 325+ 0.0002<br /> 330+ 0.7008 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.6431 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.5805 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.5141 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.4463 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3787 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.3134 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.2520 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1972 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1496 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1093 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0778 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0540 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0365 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0242 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0157 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0101 | 410+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-2549693473780495608?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-44031202389389643182008-10-25T11:44:00.003-04:002008-10-25T11:44:45.873-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sat. Oct. 25. Obama's national contract gives him an 86.6% chance to win.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 265+ 0.9900 | 265+ 0.0173<br /> 266+ 0.9893 | 266+ 0.0163<br /> 267+ 0.9887 | 267+ 0.0154<br /> 268+ 0.9879 | 268+ 0.0145<br /> 269+ 0.9872 | 269+ 0.0136<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9864 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0128<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9855 | 271+ 0.0121<br /> 272+ 0.9846 | 272+ 0.0113<br /> 273+ 0.9837 | 273+ 0.0107<br /> 274+ 0.9827 | 274+ 0.0100<br /> 275+ 0.9817 | 275+ 0.0094<br /> 280+ 0.9756 | 280+ 0.0068<br /> 285+ 0.9679 | 285+ 0.0048<br /> 290+ 0.9579 | 290+ 0.0034<br /> 295+ 0.9453 | 295+ 0.0023<br /> 300+ 0.9293 | 300+ 0.0016<br /> 305+ 0.9093 | 305+ 0.0010<br /> 310+ 0.8844 | 310+ 0.0007<br /> 315+ 0.8543 | 315+ 0.0004<br /> 320+ 0.8180 | 320+ 0.0003<br /> 325+ 0.7753 | 325+ 0.0002<br /> 330+ 0.7262 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.6710 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.6105 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.5455 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.4781 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.4099 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.3432 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.2793 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.2213 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1702 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1261 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0908 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0636 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0434 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0289 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0190 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0123 | 410+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-4403120238938964318?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-34687380814600766632008-10-23T09:50:00.000-04:002008-10-23T09:51:10.310-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Oct. 23.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 265+ 0.9871 | 265+ 0.0223<br /> 266+ 0.9862 | 266+ 0.0210<br /> 267+ 0.9854 | 267+ 0.0198<br /> 268+ 0.9844 | 268+ 0.0186<br /> 269+ 0.9835 | 269+ 0.0175<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9825 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0165<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9814 | 271+ 0.0156<br /> 272+ 0.9802 | 272+ 0.0146<br /> 273+ 0.9790 | 273+ 0.0138<br /> 274+ 0.9777 | 274+ 0.0129<br /> 275+ 0.9764 | 275+ 0.0122<br /> 280+ 0.9685 | 280+ 0.0089<br /> 285+ 0.9582 | 285+ 0.0064<br /> 290+ 0.9449 | 290+ 0.0045<br /> 295+ 0.9279 | 295+ 0.0032<br /> 300+ 0.9065 | 300+ 0.0022<br /> 305+ 0.8797 | 305+ 0.0015<br /> 310+ 0.8469 | 310+ 0.0010<br /> 315+ 0.8079 | 315+ 0.0006<br /> 320+ 0.7620 | 320+ 0.0004<br /> 325+ 0.7096 | 325+ 0.0003<br /> 330+ 0.6508 | 330+ 0.0002<br /> 335+ 0.5876 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.5204 | 340+ 0.0001<br /> 345+ 0.4511 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.3823 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3162 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.2543 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.1976 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1497 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1098 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0775 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0536 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0364 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0243 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0159 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0102 | 405+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-3468738081460076663?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-83621452751024386842008-10-22T09:42:00.001-04:002008-10-22T09:42:37.610-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Oct. 22.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 265+ 0.9879 | 265+ 0.0211<br /> 266+ 0.9871 | 266+ 0.0199<br /> 267+ 0.9863 | 267+ 0.0187<br /> 268+ 0.9854 | 268+ 0.0176<br /> 269+ 0.9844 | 269+ 0.0166<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9834 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0156<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9824 | 271+ 0.0146<br /> 272+ 0.9813 | 272+ 0.0137<br /> 273+ 0.9801 | 273+ 0.0129<br /> 274+ 0.9789 | 274+ 0.0121<br /> 275+ 0.9776 | 275+ 0.0114<br /> 280+ 0.9698 | 280+ 0.0083<br /> 285+ 0.9595 | 285+ 0.0059<br /> 290+ 0.9461 | 290+ 0.0042<br /> 295+ 0.9288 | 295+ 0.0029<br /> 300+ 0.9068 | 300+ 0.0020<br /> 305+ 0.8793 | 305+ 0.0014<br /> 310+ 0.8456 | 310+ 0.0009<br /> 315+ 0.8056 | 315+ 0.0006<br /> 320+ 0.7586 | 320+ 0.0004<br /> 325+ 0.7052 | 325+ 0.0002<br /> 330+ 0.6458 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.5819 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.5147 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.4456 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.3775 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3123 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.2516 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.1966 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1497 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1106 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0789 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0550 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0376 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0252 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0166 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0107 | 405+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-8362145275102438684?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-61212149583309761522008-10-21T10:16:00.001-04:002008-10-21T10:17:03.650-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Oct. 21. Intrade's national contracts give Obama an 84.1% chance to win.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 265+ 0.9890 | 265+ 0.0193<br /> 266+ 0.9883 | 266+ 0.0181<br /> 267+ 0.9875 | 267+ 0.0171<br /> 268+ 0.9867 | 268+ 0.0160<br /> 269+ 0.9858 | 269+ 0.0151<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9849 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0142<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9840 | 271+ 0.0133<br /> 272+ 0.9829 | 272+ 0.0125<br /> 273+ 0.9819 | 273+ 0.0117<br /> 274+ 0.9807 | 274+ 0.0110<br /> 275+ 0.9795 | 275+ 0.0103<br /> 280+ 0.9724 | 280+ 0.0075<br /> 285+ 0.9629 | 285+ 0.0053<br /> 290+ 0.9504 | 290+ 0.0038<br /> 295+ 0.9342 | 295+ 0.0026<br /> 300+ 0.9135 | 300+ 0.0018<br /> 305+ 0.8875 | 305+ 0.0012<br /> 310+ 0.8552 | 310+ 0.0008<br /> 315+ 0.8165 | 315+ 0.0005<br /> 320+ 0.7707 | 320+ 0.0003<br /> 325+ 0.7180 | 325+ 0.0002<br /> 330+ 0.6585 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.5943 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.5260 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.4550 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.3848 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3174 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.2543 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.1970 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1489 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1089 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0769 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0532 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0361 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0241 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0157 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0100 | 405+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-6121214958330976152?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-37145260937446377962008-10-20T10:42:00.002-04:002008-10-20T10:43:10.156-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Mon. Oct. 20. Obama's national contract gives him an 85% chance of winning.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 265+ 0.9885 | 265+ 0.0201<br /> 266+ 0.9877 | 266+ 0.0189<br /> 267+ 0.9869 | 267+ 0.0178<br /> 268+ 0.9861 | 268+ 0.0168<br /> 269+ 0.9852 | 269+ 0.0158<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9842 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0148<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9832 | 271+ 0.0139<br /> 272+ 0.9822 | 272+ 0.0131<br /> 273+ 0.9811 | 273+ 0.0123<br /> 274+ 0.9799 | 274+ 0.0115<br /> 275+ 0.9786 | 275+ 0.0108<br /> 280+ 0.9712 | 280+ 0.0078<br /> 285+ 0.9613 | 285+ 0.0056<br /> 290+ 0.9484 | 290+ 0.0040<br /> 295+ 0.9317 | 295+ 0.0028<br /> 300+ 0.9104 | 300+ 0.0019<br /> 305+ 0.8837 | 305+ 0.0013<br /> 310+ 0.8508 | 310+ 0.0008<br /> 315+ 0.8115 | 315+ 0.0005<br /> 320+ 0.7652 | 320+ 0.0003<br /> 325+ 0.7121 | 325+ 0.0002<br /> 330+ 0.6526 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.5884 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.5205 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.4504 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.3810 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3146 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.2527 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.1968 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1494 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1101 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0786 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0549 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0377 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0254 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0168 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0108 | 405+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-3714526093744637796?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-50205547978300338392008-10-19T12:43:00.001-04:002008-10-19T12:43:55.072-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Oct. 19.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 267+ 0.9897 | 267+ 0.0145<br /> 268+ 0.9889 | 268+ 0.0135<br /> 269+ 0.9882 | 269+ 0.0126<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9874 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0118<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9865 | 271+ 0.0111<br /> 272+ 0.9855 | 272+ 0.0103<br /> 273+ 0.9846 | 273+ 0.0097<br /> 274+ 0.9835 | 274+ 0.0090<br /> 275+ 0.9824 | 275+ 0.0084<br /> 280+ 0.9756 | 280+ 0.0060<br /> 285+ 0.9665 | 285+ 0.0042<br /> 290+ 0.9543 | 290+ 0.0029<br /> 295+ 0.9383 | 295+ 0.0020<br /> 300+ 0.9178 | 300+ 0.0014<br /> 305+ 0.8918 | 305+ 0.0009<br /> 310+ 0.8596 | 310+ 0.0006<br /> 315+ 0.8210 | 315+ 0.0004<br /> 320+ 0.7753 | 320+ 0.0002<br /> 325+ 0.7228 | 325+ 0.0001<br /> 330+ 0.6639 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.6001 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.5323 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.4623 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.3927 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3257 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.2629 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.2058 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1572 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1165 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0836 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0587 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0405 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0274 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0181 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0118 | 405+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-5020554797830033839?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-29590244411892116582008-10-17T09:32:00.000-04:002008-10-17T09:34:01.411-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Fri. Oct. 17. Little change from yesterday.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 266+ 0.9897 | 266+ 0.0158<br /> 267+ 0.9891 | 267+ 0.0149<br /> 268+ 0.9884 | 268+ 0.0140<br /> 269+ 0.9876 | 269+ 0.0132<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9868 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0124<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9860 | 271+ 0.0116<br /> 272+ 0.9851 | 272+ 0.0109<br /> 273+ 0.9842 | 273+ 0.0103<br /> 274+ 0.9832 | 274+ 0.0096<br /> 275+ 0.9822 | 275+ 0.0090<br /> 280+ 0.9761 | 280+ 0.0065<br /> 285+ 0.9683 | 285+ 0.0046<br /> 290+ 0.9581 | 290+ 0.0032<br /> 295+ 0.9450 | 295+ 0.0022<br /> 300+ 0.9283 | 300+ 0.0015<br /> 305+ 0.9073 | 305+ 0.0010<br /> 310+ 0.8812 | 310+ 0.0006<br /> 315+ 0.8492 | 315+ 0.0004<br /> 320+ 0.8108 | 320+ 0.0003<br /> 325+ 0.7655 | 325+ 0.0002<br /> 330+ 0.7132 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.6546 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.5905 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.5219 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.4510 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3804 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.3123 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.2485 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1922 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1444 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1050 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0744 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0518 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0355 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0238 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0156 | 405+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-2959024441189211658?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-41063457918953059352008-10-16T08:38:00.002-04:002008-10-16T08:40:39.409-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Oct. 16, following the last debate. McCain's numbers have further deteriorated slightly, though not nearly as much as they have on the national contracts, which currently give McCain a 15.3% chance of winning. Then again, there isn't really room for them to.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 266+ 0.9895 | 266+ 0.0161<br /> 267+ 0.9888 | 267+ 0.0152<br /> 268+ 0.9881 | 268+ 0.0143<br /> 269+ 0.9874 | 269+ 0.0134<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9866 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0126<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9857 | 271+ 0.0119<br /> 272+ 0.9848 | 272+ 0.0112<br /> 273+ 0.9839 | 273+ 0.0105<br /> 274+ 0.9829 | 274+ 0.0098<br /> 275+ 0.9819 | 275+ 0.0092<br /> 280+ 0.9758 | 280+ 0.0067<br /> 285+ 0.9679 | 285+ 0.0047<br /> 290+ 0.9577 | 290+ 0.0033<br /> 295+ 0.9448 | 295+ 0.0023<br /> 300+ 0.9284 | 300+ 0.0015<br /> 305+ 0.9078 | 305+ 0.0010<br /> 310+ 0.8821 | 310+ 0.0007<br /> 315+ 0.8509 | 315+ 0.0004<br /> 320+ 0.8133 | 320+ 0.0003<br /> 325+ 0.7689 | 325+ 0.0002<br /> 330+ 0.7174 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.6595 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.5959 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.5275 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.4567 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3861 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.3177 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.2534 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1967 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1484 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1084 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0772 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0541 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0371 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0250 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0165 | 405+ 0.0000<br /> 410+ 0.0106 | 410+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-4106345791895305935?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-71923345695030402312008-10-15T08:49:00.002-04:002008-10-15T08:51:26.037-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Oct. 15. Today marks the first time Obama's national contract has broken 80%, and the first time that McCain's chances according to my state-by-state simulations have dropped below 2%.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 265+ 0.9895 | 265+ 0.0182<br /> 266+ 0.9889 | 266+ 0.0171<br /> 267+ 0.9881 | 267+ 0.0161<br /> 268+ 0.9874 | 268+ 0.0152<br /> 269+ 0.9866 | 269+ 0.0143<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9857 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0134<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9848 | 271+ 0.0126<br /> 272+ 0.9839 | 272+ 0.0119<br /> 273+ 0.9829 | 273+ 0.0111<br /> 274+ 0.9818 | 274+ 0.0105<br /> 275+ 0.9807 | 275+ 0.0098<br /> 280+ 0.9741 | 280+ 0.0071<br /> 285+ 0.9654 | 285+ 0.0051<br /> 290+ 0.9542 | 290+ 0.0036<br /> 295+ 0.9398 | 295+ 0.0025<br /> 300+ 0.9215 | 300+ 0.0017<br /> 305+ 0.8985 | 305+ 0.0011<br /> 310+ 0.8701 | 310+ 0.0007<br /> 315+ 0.8358 | 315+ 0.0005<br /> 320+ 0.7950 | 320+ 0.0003<br /> 325+ 0.7474 | 325+ 0.0002<br /> 330+ 0.6934 | 330+ 0.0001<br /> 335+ 0.6335 | 335+ 0.0001<br /> 340+ 0.5688 | 340+ 0.0000<br /> 345+ 0.5008 | 345+ 0.0000<br /> 350+ 0.4314 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.3631 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.2977 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.2372 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1839 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.1386 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.1013 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0721 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0503 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0342 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0229 | 400+ 0.0000<br /> 405+ 0.0150 | 405+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-7192334569503040231?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-22790862545321069062008-10-14T08:34:00.001-04:002008-10-14T08:35:45.719-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Oct. 14. McCain's chances dropped very slightly again today. Intrade's national contracts still have Obama at a 77% chance to win. <br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 255+ 0.9887 | 255+ 0.0590<br /> 260+ 0.9846 | 260+ 0.0452<br /> 265+ 0.9794 | 265+ 0.0344<br /> 266+ 0.9781 | 266+ 0.0325<br /> 267+ 0.9768 | 267+ 0.0307<br /> 268+ 0.9755 | 268+ 0.0291<br /> 269+ 0.9740 | 269+ 0.0275<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9725 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0260<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9709 | 271+ 0.0245<br /> 272+ 0.9693 | 272+ 0.0232<br /> 273+ 0.9675 | 273+ 0.0219<br /> 274+ 0.9656 | 274+ 0.0206<br /> 275+ 0.9637 | 275+ 0.0195<br /> 280+ 0.9523 | 280+ 0.0145<br /> 285+ 0.9378 | 285+ 0.0107<br /> 290+ 0.9195 | 290+ 0.0078<br /> 295+ 0.8968 | 295+ 0.0056<br /> 300+ 0.8690 | 300+ 0.0040<br /> 305+ 0.8353 | 305+ 0.0028<br /> 310+ 0.7956 | 310+ 0.0019<br /> 315+ 0.7496 | 315+ 0.0013<br /> 320+ 0.6975 | 320+ 0.0008<br /> 325+ 0.6398 | 325+ 0.0006<br /> 330+ 0.5774 | 330+ 0.0003<br /> 335+ 0.5119 | 335+ 0.0002<br /> 340+ 0.4449 | 340+ 0.0001<br /> 345+ 0.3782 | 345+ 0.0001<br /> 350+ 0.3139 | 350+ 0.0000<br /> 355+ 0.2541 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.2002 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.1532 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1141 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.0827 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0583 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0402 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0272 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0180 | 395+ 0.0000<br /> 400+ 0.0117 | 400+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-2279086254532106906?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-35871003940615078632008-10-13T08:17:00.003-04:002008-10-13T08:20:11.817-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Mon. Oct. 13. Virtually no change from yesterday, although Obama's lost 1.2 points to go to 76.5% on the national Intrade contract.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 255+ 0.9878 | 255+ 0.0635<br /> 260+ 0.9834 | 260+ 0.0486<br /> 265+ 0.9778 | 265+ 0.0370<br /> 266+ 0.9765 | 266+ 0.0350<br /> 267+ 0.9751 | 267+ 0.0331<br /> 268+ 0.9736 | 268+ 0.0313<br /> 269+ 0.9720 | 269+ 0.0296<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9704 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0280<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9687 | 271+ 0.0264<br /> 272+ 0.9669 | 272+ 0.0249<br /> 273+ 0.9650 | 273+ 0.0235<br /> 274+ 0.9630 | 274+ 0.0222<br /> 275+ 0.9609 | 275+ 0.0210<br /> 280+ 0.9487 | 280+ 0.0156<br /> 285+ 0.9331 | 285+ 0.0115<br /> 290+ 0.9134 | 290+ 0.0084<br /> 295+ 0.8891 | 295+ 0.0061<br /> 300+ 0.8593 | 300+ 0.0043<br /> 305+ 0.8235 | 305+ 0.0030<br /> 310+ 0.7813 | 310+ 0.0021<br /> 315+ 0.7328 | 315+ 0.0014<br /> 320+ 0.6781 | 320+ 0.0009<br /> 325+ 0.6180 | 325+ 0.0006<br /> 330+ 0.5534 | 330+ 0.0004<br /> 335+ 0.4864 | 335+ 0.0002<br /> 340+ 0.4184 | 340+ 0.0001<br /> 345+ 0.3513 | 345+ 0.0001<br /> 350+ 0.2877 | 350+ 0.0001<br /> 355+ 0.2295 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.1778 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.1336 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.0977 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.0697 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0483 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0328 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0219 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0143 | 395+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-3587100394061507863?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-9253500441519022592008-10-12T10:19:00.002-04:002008-10-12T10:20:00.823-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Oct. 12. Obama just barely cracks the 97% mark. His national contract is predicting a 77.7% chance.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 255+ 0.9877 | 255+ 0.0635<br /> 260+ 0.9834 | 260+ 0.0487<br /> 265+ 0.9777 | 265+ 0.0370<br /> 266+ 0.9764 | 266+ 0.0350<br /> 267+ 0.9750 | 267+ 0.0331<br /> 268+ 0.9736 | 268+ 0.0313<br /> 269+ 0.9720 | 269+ 0.0296<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9704 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0280<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9687 | 271+ 0.0264<br /> 272+ 0.9669 | 272+ 0.0250<br /> 273+ 0.9650 | 273+ 0.0236<br /> 274+ 0.9630 | 274+ 0.0223<br /> 275+ 0.9609 | 275+ 0.0210<br /> 280+ 0.9486 | 280+ 0.0157<br /> 285+ 0.9331 | 285+ 0.0115<br /> 290+ 0.9135 | 290+ 0.0084<br /> 295+ 0.8892 | 295+ 0.0061<br /> 300+ 0.8595 | 300+ 0.0043<br /> 305+ 0.8239 | 305+ 0.0030<br /> 310+ 0.7819 | 310+ 0.0021<br /> 315+ 0.7337 | 315+ 0.0014<br /> 320+ 0.6794 | 320+ 0.0009<br /> 325+ 0.6197 | 325+ 0.0006<br /> 330+ 0.5558 | 330+ 0.0004<br /> 335+ 0.4893 | 335+ 0.0002<br /> 340+ 0.4219 | 340+ 0.0002<br /> 345+ 0.3554 | 345+ 0.0001<br /> 350+ 0.2921 | 350+ 0.0001<br /> 355+ 0.2339 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.1822 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.1375 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.1012 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.0726 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0505 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0344 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0230 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0151 | 395+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-925350044151902259?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-46693357233192403692008-10-11T11:47:00.000-04:002008-10-11T11:48:09.577-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sat. Oct. 11. More or less unchanged from yesterday.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 255+ 0.9871 | 255+ 0.0664<br /> 260+ 0.9825 | 260+ 0.0510<br /> 265+ 0.9766 | 265+ 0.0388<br /> 266+ 0.9752 | 266+ 0.0367<br /> 267+ 0.9738 | 267+ 0.0347<br /> 268+ 0.9722 | 268+ 0.0329<br /> 269+ 0.9706 | 269+ 0.0311<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9689 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0294<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9671 | 271+ 0.0278<br /> 272+ 0.9653 | 272+ 0.0262<br /> 273+ 0.9633 | 273+ 0.0248<br /> 274+ 0.9612 | 274+ 0.0234<br /> 275+ 0.9590 | 275+ 0.0221<br /> 280+ 0.9462 | 280+ 0.0165<br /> 285+ 0.9300 | 285+ 0.0122<br /> 290+ 0.9096 | 290+ 0.0089<br /> 295+ 0.8844 | 295+ 0.0064<br /> 300+ 0.8537 | 300+ 0.0046<br /> 305+ 0.8169 | 305+ 0.0032<br /> 310+ 0.7738 | 310+ 0.0022<br /> 315+ 0.7245 | 315+ 0.0015<br /> 320+ 0.6693 | 320+ 0.0010<br /> 325+ 0.6090 | 325+ 0.0007<br /> 330+ 0.5448 | 330+ 0.0004<br /> 335+ 0.4784 | 335+ 0.0003<br /> 340+ 0.4114 | 340+ 0.0002<br /> 345+ 0.3457 | 345+ 0.0001<br /> 350+ 0.2835 | 350+ 0.0001<br /> 355+ 0.2267 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.1762 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.1328 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.0976 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.0699 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0486 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0331 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0221 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0145 | 395+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-4669335723319240369?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-5428182324122175872008-10-10T08:26:00.001-04:002008-10-10T08:28:12.407-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Fri. Oct. 10. Another day, another point for Obama, who now sits at 96.85% to win here, 77% in his "Obama to win" national contract.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 255+ 0.9869 | 255+ 0.0673<br /> 260+ 0.9823 | 260+ 0.0516<br /> 265+ 0.9763 | 265+ 0.0393<br /> 266+ 0.9749 | 266+ 0.0372<br /> 267+ 0.9734 | 267+ 0.0352<br /> 268+ 0.9719 | 268+ 0.0333<br /> 269+ 0.9702 | 269+ 0.0315<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9685 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0298<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9667 | 271+ 0.0281<br /> 272+ 0.9648 | 272+ 0.0266<br /> 273+ 0.9628 | 273+ 0.0251<br /> 274+ 0.9607 | 274+ 0.0237<br /> 275+ 0.9584 | 275+ 0.0224<br /> 280+ 0.9455 | 280+ 0.0167<br /> 285+ 0.9291 | 285+ 0.0124<br /> 290+ 0.9085 | 290+ 0.0090<br /> 295+ 0.8831 | 295+ 0.0065<br /> 300+ 0.8521 | 300+ 0.0047<br /> 305+ 0.8150 | 305+ 0.0033<br /> 310+ 0.7715 | 310+ 0.0023<br /> 315+ 0.7219 | 315+ 0.0015<br /> 320+ 0.6662 | 320+ 0.0010<br /> 325+ 0.6054 | 325+ 0.0007<br /> 330+ 0.5406 | 330+ 0.0004<br /> 335+ 0.4737 | 335+ 0.0003<br /> 340+ 0.4063 | 340+ 0.0002<br /> 345+ 0.3402 | 345+ 0.0001<br /> 350+ 0.2778 | 350+ 0.0001<br /> 355+ 0.2209 | 355+ 0.0000<br /> 360+ 0.1708 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.1278 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.0932 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.0664 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0458 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0310 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0207 | 390+ 0.0000<br /> 395+ 0.0135 | 395+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-542818232412217587?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-53972594994447653352008-10-09T08:25:00.002-04:002008-10-09T08:26:42.603-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Oct. 9. A further increase for Obama's odds, up to a 96% chance that he'll win outright. Interestingly, this is on the heels of a 3% <i>decrease</i> of his odds to 74% on the main Intrade "Obama to win" contract.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 250+ 0.9875 | 250+ 0.1095<br /> 255+ 0.9831 | 255+ 0.0852<br /> 260+ 0.9773 | 260+ 0.0657<br /> 265+ 0.9697 | 265+ 0.0502<br /> 266+ 0.9679 | 266+ 0.0475<br /> 267+ 0.9660 | 267+ 0.0449<br /> 268+ 0.9640 | 268+ 0.0425<br /> 269+ 0.9620 | 269+ 0.0402<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9598 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0380<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9575 | 271+ 0.0360<br /> 272+ 0.9551 | 272+ 0.0340<br /> 273+ 0.9525 | 273+ 0.0321<br /> 274+ 0.9498 | 274+ 0.0303<br /> 275+ 0.9470 | 275+ 0.0287<br /> 280+ 0.9308 | 280+ 0.0214<br /> 285+ 0.9103 | 285+ 0.0159<br /> 290+ 0.8850 | 290+ 0.0117<br /> 295+ 0.8542 | 295+ 0.0085<br /> 300+ 0.8174 | 300+ 0.0062<br /> 305+ 0.7743 | 305+ 0.0044<br /> 310+ 0.7249 | 310+ 0.0031<br /> 315+ 0.6698 | 315+ 0.0021<br /> 320+ 0.6095 | 320+ 0.0015<br /> 325+ 0.5454 | 325+ 0.0010<br /> 330+ 0.4789 | 330+ 0.0006<br /> 335+ 0.4122 | 335+ 0.0004<br /> 340+ 0.3467 | 340+ 0.0003<br /> 345+ 0.2844 | 345+ 0.0002<br /> 350+ 0.2275 | 350+ 0.0001<br /> 355+ 0.1772 | 355+ 0.0001<br /> 360+ 0.1341 | 360+ 0.0000<br /> 365+ 0.0984 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.0707 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.0494 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0336 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0225 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0148 | 390+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-5397259499444765335?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-49142025288257915592008-10-08T08:42:00.001-04:002008-10-08T08:42:19.755-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Wed. Oct. 8.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 240+ 0.9885 | 240+ 0.2221<br /> 245+ 0.9845 | 245+ 0.1813<br /> 250+ 0.9793 | 250+ 0.1463<br /> 255+ 0.9728 | 255+ 0.1169<br /> 260+ 0.9644 | 260+ 0.0925<br /> 265+ 0.9538 | 265+ 0.0727<br /> 266+ 0.9513 | 266+ 0.0692<br /> 267+ 0.9488 | 267+ 0.0658<br /> 268+ 0.9461 | 268+ 0.0627<br /> 269+ 0.9433 | 269+ 0.0596<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9404 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0567<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9373 | 271+ 0.0539<br /> 272+ 0.9342 | 272+ 0.0512<br /> 273+ 0.9308 | 273+ 0.0487<br /> 274+ 0.9273 | 274+ 0.0462<br /> 275+ 0.9237 | 275+ 0.0439<br /> 280+ 0.9030 | 280+ 0.0338<br /> 285+ 0.8776 | 285+ 0.0258<br /> 290+ 0.8471 | 290+ 0.0195<br /> 295+ 0.8110 | 295+ 0.0146<br /> 300+ 0.7691 | 300+ 0.0109<br /> 305+ 0.7212 | 305+ 0.0079<br /> 310+ 0.6679 | 310+ 0.0057<br /> 315+ 0.6100 | 315+ 0.0040<br /> 320+ 0.5483 | 320+ 0.0028<br /> 325+ 0.4845 | 325+ 0.0019<br /> 330+ 0.4200 | 330+ 0.0013<br /> 335+ 0.3569 | 335+ 0.0008<br /> 340+ 0.2965 | 340+ 0.0005<br /> 345+ 0.2405 | 345+ 0.0003<br /> 350+ 0.1905 | 350+ 0.0002<br /> 355+ 0.1471 | 355+ 0.0001<br /> 360+ 0.1107 | 360+ 0.0001<br /> 365+ 0.0810 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.0582 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.0408 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0279 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0188 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0124 | 390+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-4914202528825791559?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-40460761168101172612008-10-07T22:59:00.000-04:002008-10-07T23:00:47.981-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the evening of Tue. Oct. 7, immediately following the 2nd debate. A bit more of a bump for Obama.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 245+ 0.9874 | 245+ 0.1760<br /> 250+ 0.9830 | 250+ 0.1401<br /> 255+ 0.9771 | 255+ 0.1102<br /> 260+ 0.9695 | 260+ 0.0857<br /> 265+ 0.9595 | 265+ 0.0660<br /> 266+ 0.9572 | 266+ 0.0626<br /> 267+ 0.9548 | 267+ 0.0593<br /> 268+ 0.9523 | 268+ 0.0562<br /> 269+ 0.9496 | 269+ 0.0533<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9467 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0504<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9438 | 271+ 0.0477<br /> 272+ 0.9407 | 272+ 0.0452<br /> 273+ 0.9374 | 273+ 0.0428<br /> 274+ 0.9340 | 274+ 0.0405<br /> 275+ 0.9304 | 275+ 0.0383<br /> 280+ 0.9098 | 280+ 0.0288<br /> 285+ 0.8843 | 285+ 0.0216<br /> 290+ 0.8532 | 290+ 0.0160<br /> 295+ 0.8161 | 295+ 0.0118<br /> 300+ 0.7728 | 300+ 0.0086<br /> 305+ 0.7233 | 305+ 0.0062<br /> 310+ 0.6681 | 310+ 0.0044<br /> 315+ 0.6082 | 315+ 0.0031<br /> 320+ 0.5445 | 320+ 0.0022<br /> 325+ 0.4788 | 325+ 0.0015<br /> 330+ 0.4127 | 330+ 0.0010<br /> 335+ 0.3485 | 335+ 0.0006<br /> 340+ 0.2874 | 340+ 0.0004<br /> 345+ 0.2311 | 345+ 0.0003<br /> 350+ 0.1813 | 350+ 0.0002<br /> 355+ 0.1387 | 355+ 0.0001<br /> 360+ 0.1034 | 360+ 0.0001<br /> 365+ 0.0749 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.0533 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.0371 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0252 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0168 | 385+ 0.0000<br /> 390+ 0.0110 | 390+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-4046076116810117261?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-77692274801477087372008-10-07T09:12:00.001-04:002008-10-07T09:13:51.478-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Tue. Oct. 7, going into the debate. Obama's numbers keep increasing, with him winning 93.6% of the time. Intrade's global contract gives him a 68.7% chance to win.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 240+ 0.9887 | 240+ 0.2502<br /> 245+ 0.9847 | 245+ 0.2039<br /> 250+ 0.9794 | 250+ 0.1638<br /> 255+ 0.9724 | 255+ 0.1298<br /> 260+ 0.9632 | 260+ 0.1017<br /> 265+ 0.9514 | 265+ 0.0787<br /> 266+ 0.9487 | 266+ 0.0747<br /> 267+ 0.9458 | 267+ 0.0708<br /> 268+ 0.9428 | 268+ 0.0672<br /> 269+ 0.9396 | 269+ 0.0637<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9363 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0604<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9328 | 271+ 0.0572<br /> 272+ 0.9292 | 272+ 0.0542<br /> 273+ 0.9253 | 273+ 0.0513<br /> 274+ 0.9213 | 274+ 0.0486<br /> 275+ 0.9171 | 275+ 0.0460<br /> 280+ 0.8931 | 280+ 0.0347<br /> 285+ 0.8638 | 285+ 0.0261<br /> 290+ 0.8286 | 290+ 0.0195<br /> 295+ 0.7873 | 295+ 0.0144<br /> 300+ 0.7399 | 300+ 0.0106<br /> 305+ 0.6867 | 305+ 0.0077<br /> 310+ 0.6285 | 310+ 0.0055<br /> 315+ 0.5666 | 315+ 0.0039<br /> 320+ 0.5021 | 320+ 0.0028<br /> 325+ 0.4368 | 325+ 0.0019<br /> 330+ 0.3725 | 330+ 0.0013<br /> 335+ 0.3111 | 335+ 0.0008<br /> 340+ 0.2539 | 340+ 0.0005<br /> 345+ 0.2022 | 345+ 0.0003<br /> 350+ 0.1572 | 350+ 0.0002<br /> 355+ 0.1192 | 355+ 0.0001<br /> 360+ 0.0882 | 360+ 0.0001<br /> 365+ 0.0635 | 365+ 0.0000<br /> 370+ 0.0449 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.0311 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0210 | 380+ 0.0000<br /> 385+ 0.0139 | 385+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-7769227480147708737?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-14490298261598245112008-10-06T09:38:00.001-04:002008-10-06T09:38:19.491-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Mon. Oct. 6.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 235+ 0.9874 | 235+ 0.3638<br /> 240+ 0.9830 | 240+ 0.3062<br /> 245+ 0.9773 | 245+ 0.2537<br /> 250+ 0.9701 | 250+ 0.2071<br /> 255+ 0.9607 | 255+ 0.1668<br /> 260+ 0.9487 | 260+ 0.1328<br /> 265+ 0.9335 | 265+ 0.1045<br /> 266+ 0.9300 | 266+ 0.0995<br /> 267+ 0.9264 | 267+ 0.0947<br /> 268+ 0.9225 | 268+ 0.0902<br /> 269+ 0.9185 | 269+ 0.0858<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9142 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0815<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9098 | 271+ 0.0775<br /> 272+ 0.9053 | 272+ 0.0736<br /> 273+ 0.9005 | 273+ 0.0700<br /> 274+ 0.8955 | 274+ 0.0665<br /> 275+ 0.8902 | 275+ 0.0632<br /> 280+ 0.8609 | 280+ 0.0486<br /> 285+ 0.8256 | 285+ 0.0372<br /> 290+ 0.7840 | 290+ 0.0283<br /> 295+ 0.7363 | 295+ 0.0214<br /> 300+ 0.6827 | 300+ 0.0161<br /> 305+ 0.6240 | 305+ 0.0119<br /> 310+ 0.5614 | 310+ 0.0087<br /> 315+ 0.4966 | 315+ 0.0063<br /> 320+ 0.4309 | 320+ 0.0045<br /> 325+ 0.3663 | 325+ 0.0031<br /> 330+ 0.3046 | 330+ 0.0021<br /> 335+ 0.2475 | 335+ 0.0014<br /> 340+ 0.1960 | 340+ 0.0009<br /> 345+ 0.1510 | 345+ 0.0006<br /> 350+ 0.1133 | 350+ 0.0004<br /> 355+ 0.0827 | 355+ 0.0002<br /> 360+ 0.0586 | 360+ 0.0001<br /> 365+ 0.0403 | 365+ 0.0001<br /> 370+ 0.0272 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.0179 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0115 | 380+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-1449029826159824511?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-58975613078677755832008-10-05T10:20:00.001-04:002008-10-05T10:20:15.279-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Oct. 5.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 230+ 0.9882 | 230+ 0.4442<br /> 235+ 0.9841 | 235+ 0.3829<br /> 240+ 0.9789 | 240+ 0.3253<br /> 245+ 0.9723 | 245+ 0.2724<br /> 250+ 0.9639 | 250+ 0.2249<br /> 255+ 0.9532 | 255+ 0.1834<br /> 260+ 0.9398 | 260+ 0.1479<br /> 265+ 0.9230 | 265+ 0.1180<br /> 266+ 0.9192 | 266+ 0.1126<br /> 267+ 0.9152 | 267+ 0.1075<br /> 268+ 0.9111 | 268+ 0.1026<br /> 269+ 0.9066 | 269+ 0.0979<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9021 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0934<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.8974 | 271+ 0.0889<br /> 272+ 0.8925 | 272+ 0.0848<br /> 273+ 0.8874 | 273+ 0.0808<br /> 274+ 0.8820 | 274+ 0.0770<br /> 275+ 0.8764 | 275+ 0.0733<br /> 280+ 0.8454 | 280+ 0.0573<br /> 285+ 0.8087 | 285+ 0.0444<br /> 290+ 0.7659 | 290+ 0.0343<br /> 295+ 0.7174 | 295+ 0.0262<br /> 300+ 0.6635 | 300+ 0.0199<br /> 305+ 0.6050 | 305+ 0.0149<br /> 310+ 0.5432 | 310+ 0.0111<br /> 315+ 0.4797 | 315+ 0.0081<br /> 320+ 0.4157 | 320+ 0.0058<br /> 325+ 0.3533 | 325+ 0.0041<br /> 330+ 0.2940 | 330+ 0.0028<br /> 335+ 0.2394 | 335+ 0.0019<br /> 340+ 0.1902 | 340+ 0.0012<br /> 345+ 0.1475 | 345+ 0.0008<br /> 350+ 0.1115 | 350+ 0.0005<br /> 355+ 0.0822 | 355+ 0.0003<br /> 360+ 0.0592 | 360+ 0.0002<br /> 365+ 0.0414 | 365+ 0.0001<br /> 370+ 0.0285 | 370+ 0.0001<br /> 375+ 0.0192 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0126 | 380+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-5897561307867775583?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-3142130598883982282008-10-04T11:28:00.001-04:002008-10-04T11:30:25.867-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sat. Oct. 4. Still more improvement for Obama, as every day McCain doesn't turn things around makes the ultimate outcome less uncertain.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 235+ 0.9870 | 235+ 0.3714<br /> 240+ 0.9826 | 240+ 0.3136<br /> 245+ 0.9768 | 245+ 0.2606<br /> 250+ 0.9693 | 250+ 0.2132<br /> 255+ 0.9596 | 255+ 0.1721<br /> 260+ 0.9472 | 260+ 0.1371<br /> 265+ 0.9313 | 265+ 0.1080<br /> 266+ 0.9277 | 266+ 0.1028<br /> 267+ 0.9240 | 267+ 0.0978<br /> 268+ 0.9200 | 268+ 0.0931<br /> 269+ 0.9158 | 269+ 0.0886<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.9114 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0842<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.9069 | 271+ 0.0800<br /> 272+ 0.9022 | 272+ 0.0760<br /> 273+ 0.8972 | 273+ 0.0723<br /> 274+ 0.8920 | 274+ 0.0687<br /> 275+ 0.8866 | 275+ 0.0652<br /> 280+ 0.8563 | 280+ 0.0501<br /> 285+ 0.8201 | 285+ 0.0383<br /> 290+ 0.7776 | 290+ 0.0291<br /> 295+ 0.7292 | 295+ 0.0220<br /> 300+ 0.6752 | 300+ 0.0164<br /> 305+ 0.6164 | 305+ 0.0122<br /> 310+ 0.5540 | 310+ 0.0089<br /> 315+ 0.4898 | 315+ 0.0065<br /> 320+ 0.4249 | 320+ 0.0046<br /> 325+ 0.3615 | 325+ 0.0032<br /> 330+ 0.3012 | 330+ 0.0022<br /> 335+ 0.2455 | 335+ 0.0015<br /> 340+ 0.1954 | 340+ 0.0010<br /> 345+ 0.1516 | 345+ 0.0006<br /> 350+ 0.1149 | 350+ 0.0004<br /> 355+ 0.0848 | 355+ 0.0002<br /> 360+ 0.0611 | 360+ 0.0001<br /> 365+ 0.0429 | 365+ 0.0001<br /> 370+ 0.0296 | 370+ 0.0000<br /> 375+ 0.0199 | 375+ 0.0000<br /> 380+ 0.0131 | 380+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-314213059888398228?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-14985423794471137102008-10-03T09:02:00.001-04:002008-10-03T09:03:23.747-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Fri. Oct. 3, following the VP debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden. No dramatic shifts, but Obama's pretty close to the 90% mark at this point.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 230+ 0.9875 | 230+ 0.4497<br /> 235+ 0.9832 | 235+ 0.3889<br /> 240+ 0.9778 | 240+ 0.3317<br /> 245+ 0.9708 | 245+ 0.2791<br /> 250+ 0.9619 | 250+ 0.2316<br /> 255+ 0.9507 | 255+ 0.1898<br /> 260+ 0.9366 | 260+ 0.1538<br /> 265+ 0.9191 | 265+ 0.1232<br /> 266+ 0.9151 | 266+ 0.1178<br /> 267+ 0.9110 | 267+ 0.1125<br /> 268+ 0.9066 | 268+ 0.1075<br /> 269+ 0.9021 | 269+ 0.1026<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.8974 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0979<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.8925 | 271+ 0.0934<br /> 272+ 0.8875 | 272+ 0.0890<br /> 273+ 0.8822 | 273+ 0.0849<br /> 274+ 0.8768 | 274+ 0.0809<br /> 275+ 0.8710 | 275+ 0.0771<br /> 280+ 0.8395 | 280+ 0.0603<br /> 285+ 0.8023 | 285+ 0.0469<br /> 290+ 0.7593 | 290+ 0.0361<br /> 295+ 0.7108 | 295+ 0.0277<br /> 300+ 0.6572 | 300+ 0.0210<br /> 305+ 0.5991 | 305+ 0.0158<br /> 310+ 0.5378 | 310+ 0.0118<br /> 315+ 0.4749 | 315+ 0.0087<br /> 320+ 0.4115 | 320+ 0.0063<br /> 325+ 0.3496 | 325+ 0.0045<br /> 330+ 0.2908 | 330+ 0.0031<br /> 335+ 0.2365 | 335+ 0.0021<br /> 340+ 0.1877 | 340+ 0.0014<br /> 345+ 0.1452 | 345+ 0.0010<br /> 350+ 0.1095 | 350+ 0.0006<br /> 355+ 0.0805 | 355+ 0.0004<br /> 360+ 0.0576 | 360+ 0.0002<br /> 365+ 0.0400 | 365+ 0.0001<br /> 370+ 0.0273 | 370+ 0.0001<br /> 375+ 0.0182 | 375+ 0.0001<br /> 380+ 0.0119 | 380+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-1498542379447113710?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-24666176492197860032008-10-02T23:57:00.000-04:002008-10-02T23:58:21.579-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes after the VP debate.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 230+ 0.9873 | 230+ 0.4560<br /> 235+ 0.9830 | 235+ 0.3947<br /> 240+ 0.9774 | 240+ 0.3369<br /> 245+ 0.9704 | 245+ 0.2835<br /> 250+ 0.9614 | 250+ 0.2352<br /> 255+ 0.9501 | 255+ 0.1926<br /> 260+ 0.9359 | 260+ 0.1559<br /> 265+ 0.9181 | 265+ 0.1249<br /> 266+ 0.9141 | 266+ 0.1193<br /> 267+ 0.9099 | 267+ 0.1139<br /> 268+ 0.9055 | 268+ 0.1088<br /> 269+ 0.9009 | 269+ 0.1039<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.8961 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.0991<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.8912 | 271+ 0.0945<br /> 272+ 0.8861 | 272+ 0.0901<br /> 273+ 0.8807 | 273+ 0.0859<br /> 274+ 0.8751 | 274+ 0.0819<br /> 275+ 0.8693 | 275+ 0.0780<br /> 280+ 0.8372 | 280+ 0.0610<br /> 285+ 0.7993 | 285+ 0.0474<br /> 290+ 0.7556 | 290+ 0.0366<br /> 295+ 0.7063 | 295+ 0.0281<br /> 300+ 0.6519 | 300+ 0.0214<br /> 305+ 0.5932 | 305+ 0.0161<br /> 310+ 0.5316 | 310+ 0.0120<br /> 315+ 0.4686 | 315+ 0.0088<br /> 320+ 0.4056 | 320+ 0.0064<br /> 325+ 0.3444 | 325+ 0.0045<br /> 330+ 0.2864 | 330+ 0.0032<br /> 335+ 0.2332 | 335+ 0.0022<br /> 340+ 0.1855 | 340+ 0.0015<br /> 345+ 0.1440 | 345+ 0.0010<br /> 350+ 0.1091 | 350+ 0.0006<br /> 355+ 0.0808 | 355+ 0.0004<br /> 360+ 0.0583 | 360+ 0.0002<br /> 365+ 0.0409 | 365+ 0.0001<br /> 370+ 0.0283 | 370+ 0.0001<br /> 375+ 0.0191 | 375+ 0.0001<br /> 380+ 0.0126 | 380+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-2466617649219786003?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-89770373776160728792008-10-02T09:42:00.001-04:002008-10-02T09:42:44.090-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Oct. 2. Not much movement from last night.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 225+ 0.9888 | 225+ 0.5493<br /> 230+ 0.9849 | 230+ 0.4864<br /> 235+ 0.9800 | 235+ 0.4245<br /> 240+ 0.9736 | 240+ 0.3654<br /> 245+ 0.9655 | 245+ 0.3101<br /> 250+ 0.9553 | 250+ 0.2596<br /> 255+ 0.9424 | 255+ 0.2144<br /> 260+ 0.9262 | 260+ 0.1750<br /> 265+ 0.9063 | 265+ 0.1413<br /> 266+ 0.9018 | 266+ 0.1352<br /> 267+ 0.8971 | 267+ 0.1293<br /> 268+ 0.8922 | 268+ 0.1236<br /> 269+ 0.8871 | 269+ 0.1182<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.8818 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.1129<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.8764 | 271+ 0.1078<br /> 272+ 0.8707 | 272+ 0.1029<br /> 273+ 0.8648 | 273+ 0.0982<br /> 274+ 0.8587 | 274+ 0.0937<br /> 275+ 0.8524 | 275+ 0.0894<br /> 280+ 0.8175 | 280+ 0.0702<br /> 285+ 0.7769 | 285+ 0.0548<br /> 290+ 0.7307 | 290+ 0.0425<br /> 295+ 0.6792 | 295+ 0.0327<br /> 300+ 0.6231 | 300+ 0.0250<br /> 305+ 0.5632 | 305+ 0.0189<br /> 310+ 0.5011 | 310+ 0.0142<br /> 315+ 0.4382 | 315+ 0.0105<br /> 320+ 0.3760 | 320+ 0.0077<br /> 325+ 0.3161 | 325+ 0.0055<br /> 330+ 0.2601 | 330+ 0.0039<br /> 335+ 0.2093 | 335+ 0.0027<br /> 340+ 0.1644 | 340+ 0.0019<br /> 345+ 0.1258 | 345+ 0.0012<br /> 350+ 0.0939 | 350+ 0.0008<br /> 355+ 0.0683 | 355+ 0.0005<br /> 360+ 0.0483 | 360+ 0.0003<br /> 365+ 0.0333 | 365+ 0.0002<br /> 370+ 0.0225 | 370+ 0.0001<br /> 375+ 0.0149 | 375+ 0.0001<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-8977037377616072879?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-45872456332944239622008-10-01T22:20:00.002-04:002008-10-01T22:25:55.644-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Oct. 1. Bad news for McCain in the polls seems to be getting absorbed by the markets.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 230+ 0.9867 | 230+ 0.4796<br /> 235+ 0.9821 | 235+ 0.4178<br /> 240+ 0.9762 | 240+ 0.3586<br /> 245+ 0.9686 | 245+ 0.3034<br /> 250+ 0.9589 | 250+ 0.2530<br /> 255+ 0.9465 | 255+ 0.2080<br /> 260+ 0.9309 | 260+ 0.1688<br /> 265+ 0.9114 | 265+ 0.1353<br /> 266+ 0.9070 | 266+ 0.1293<br /> 267+ 0.9025 | 267+ 0.1235<br /> 268+ 0.8977 | 268+ 0.1179<br /> 269+ 0.8927 | 269+ 0.1125<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.8875 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.1073<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.8821 | 271+ 0.1023<br /> 272+ 0.8765 | 272+ 0.0975<br /> 273+ 0.8707 | 273+ 0.0930<br /> 274+ 0.8647 | 274+ 0.0886<br /> 275+ 0.8584 | 275+ 0.0843<br /> 280+ 0.8238 | 280+ 0.0656<br /> 285+ 0.7834 | 285+ 0.0507<br /> 290+ 0.7373 | 290+ 0.0389<br /> 295+ 0.6859 | 295+ 0.0297<br /> 300+ 0.6298 | 300+ 0.0225<br /> 305+ 0.5700 | 305+ 0.0169<br /> 310+ 0.5078 | 310+ 0.0126<br /> 315+ 0.4448 | 315+ 0.0093<br /> 320+ 0.3825 | 320+ 0.0067<br /> 325+ 0.3225 | 325+ 0.0048<br /> 330+ 0.2662 | 330+ 0.0034<br /> 335+ 0.2150 | 335+ 0.0024<br /> 340+ 0.1696 | 340+ 0.0016<br /> 345+ 0.1304 | 345+ 0.0011<br /> 350+ 0.0979 | 350+ 0.0007<br /> 355+ 0.0717 | 355+ 0.0005<br /> 360+ 0.0511 | 360+ 0.0003<br /> 365+ 0.0355 | 365+ 0.0002<br /> 370+ 0.0242 | 370+ 0.0001<br /> 375+ 0.0161 | 375+ 0.0001<br /> 380+ 0.0104 | 380+ 0.0000<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-4587245633294423962?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-31764899840187013932008-10-01T09:06:00.001-04:002008-10-01T09:08:14.592-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wednesday, October 1, 2008.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 225+ 0.9885 | 225+ 0.5792<br /> 230+ 0.9845 | 230+ 0.5158<br /> 235+ 0.9793 | 235+ 0.4527<br /> 240+ 0.9726 | 240+ 0.3916<br /> 245+ 0.9640 | 245+ 0.3336<br /> 250+ 0.9530 | 250+ 0.2800<br /> 255+ 0.9390 | 255+ 0.2317<br /> 260+ 0.9214 | 260+ 0.1891<br /> 265+ 0.8996 | 265+ 0.1524<br /> 266+ 0.8947 | 266+ 0.1457<br /> 267+ 0.8896 | 267+ 0.1393<br /> 268+ 0.8842 | 268+ 0.1331<br /> 269+ 0.8787 | 269+ 0.1271<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.8729 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.1213<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.8669 | 271+ 0.1158<br /> 272+ 0.8607 | 272+ 0.1104<br /> 273+ 0.8543 | 273+ 0.1053<br /> 274+ 0.8476 | 274+ 0.1004<br /> 275+ 0.8407 | 275+ 0.0957<br /> 280+ 0.8028 | 280+ 0.0747<br /> 285+ 0.7590 | 285+ 0.0579<br /> 290+ 0.7096 | 290+ 0.0446<br /> 295+ 0.6551 | 295+ 0.0341<br /> 300+ 0.5965 | 300+ 0.0259<br /> 305+ 0.5347 | 305+ 0.0195<br /> 310+ 0.4715 | 310+ 0.0146<br /> 315+ 0.4084 | 315+ 0.0108<br /> 320+ 0.3469 | 320+ 0.0079<br /> 325+ 0.2886 | 325+ 0.0057<br /> 330+ 0.2349 | 330+ 0.0041<br /> 335+ 0.1870 | 335+ 0.0028<br /> 340+ 0.1452 | 340+ 0.0019<br /> 345+ 0.1100 | 345+ 0.0013<br /> 350+ 0.0812 | 350+ 0.0009<br /> 355+ 0.0585 | 355+ 0.0006<br /> 360+ 0.0411 | 360+ 0.0004<br /> 365+ 0.0282 | 365+ 0.0002<br /> 370+ 0.0189 | 370+ 0.0001<br /> 375+ 0.0125 | 375+ 0.0001<br /></pre><br /><br />The overall "Obama to win" and "McCain to win" contracts say they have a 64.8% and 34.8% chance respectively.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-3176489984018701393?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-31959476322430091302008-09-30T14:24:00.002-04:002008-09-30T14:30:41.476-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Sep. 30. 87% chance that Obama wins, says the simulation, which is pretty high. But only about 23% higher than the 64% chance Intrade's "Obama to win" contract gives him, which is similar to the sorts of discrepancies we've been seeing since I started doing these analyses. Of course, that's got to flatten out as we approach 100%.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 225+ 0.9882 | 225+ 0.5854<br /> 230+ 0.9841 | 230+ 0.5222<br /> 235+ 0.9788 | 235+ 0.4589<br /> 240+ 0.9720 | 240+ 0.3975<br /> 245+ 0.9631 | 245+ 0.3391<br /> 250+ 0.9519 | 250+ 0.2850<br /> 255+ 0.9376 | 255+ 0.2360<br /> 260+ 0.9197 | 260+ 0.1929<br /> 265+ 0.8974 | 265+ 0.1555<br /> 266+ 0.8924 | 266+ 0.1487<br /> 267+ 0.8872 | 267+ 0.1422<br /> 268+ 0.8817 | 268+ 0.1359<br /> 269+ 0.8761 | 269+ 0.1298<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.8702 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.1239<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.8641 | 271+ 0.1183<br /> 272+ 0.8578 | 272+ 0.1128<br /> 273+ 0.8513 | 273+ 0.1076<br /> 274+ 0.8445 | 274+ 0.1026<br /> 275+ 0.8374 | 275+ 0.0978<br /> 280+ 0.7990 | 280+ 0.0764<br /> 285+ 0.7545 | 285+ 0.0593<br /> 290+ 0.7045 | 290+ 0.0456<br /> 295+ 0.6495 | 295+ 0.0349<br /> 300+ 0.5904 | 300+ 0.0265<br /> 305+ 0.5284 | 305+ 0.0200<br /> 310+ 0.4651 | 310+ 0.0150<br /> 315+ 0.4021 | 315+ 0.0111<br /> 320+ 0.3410 | 320+ 0.0081<br /> 325+ 0.2832 | 325+ 0.0059<br /> 330+ 0.2301 | 330+ 0.0042<br /> 335+ 0.1828 | 335+ 0.0029<br /> 340+ 0.1417 | 340+ 0.0020<br /> 345+ 0.1071 | 345+ 0.0014<br /> 350+ 0.0790 | 350+ 0.0009<br /> 355+ 0.0568 | 355+ 0.0006<br /> 360+ 0.0399 | 360+ 0.0004<br /> 365+ 0.0273 | 365+ 0.0002<br /> 370+ 0.0183 | 370+ 0.0001<br /> 375+ 0.0120 | 375+ 0.0001<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-3195947632243009130?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-51422501412558559452008-09-30T08:48:00.002-04:002008-09-30T08:50:33.846-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Sep. 30. McCain's a couple of points higher than last night, which is interesting since the overall "McCain to win" contract is down a little since yesterday. Still, it's hard to imagine that Obama's numbers could have gotten much higher than they were, at 85%+.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 220+ 0.9874 | 220+ 0.7118<br /> 225+ 0.9831 | 225+ 0.6545<br /> 230+ 0.9775 | 230+ 0.5940<br /> 235+ 0.9703 | 235+ 0.5316<br /> 240+ 0.9610 | 240+ 0.4690<br /> 245+ 0.9492 | 245+ 0.4078<br /> 250+ 0.9342 | 250+ 0.3493<br /> 255+ 0.9154 | 255+ 0.2948<br /> 260+ 0.8921 | 260+ 0.2452<br /> 265+ 0.8638 | 265+ 0.2011<br /> 266+ 0.8575 | 266+ 0.1929<br /> 267+ 0.8510 | 267+ 0.1850<br /> 268+ 0.8443 | 268+ 0.1774<br /> 269+ 0.8373 | 269+ 0.1700<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.8300 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.1627<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.8226 | 271+ 0.1557<br /> 272+ 0.8150 | 272+ 0.1490<br /> 273+ 0.8071 | 273+ 0.1425<br /> 274+ 0.7989 | 274+ 0.1362<br /> 275+ 0.7905 | 275+ 0.1301<br /> 280+ 0.7453 | 280+ 0.1029<br /> 285+ 0.6946 | 285+ 0.0806<br /> 290+ 0.6392 | 290+ 0.0626<br /> 295+ 0.5801 | 295+ 0.0482<br /> 300+ 0.5186 | 300+ 0.0369<br /> 305+ 0.4558 | 305+ 0.0281<br /> 310+ 0.3937 | 310+ 0.0212<br /> 315+ 0.3338 | 315+ 0.0159<br /> 320+ 0.2773 | 320+ 0.0118<br /> 325+ 0.2255 | 325+ 0.0087<br /> 330+ 0.1794 | 330+ 0.0063<br /> 335+ 0.1395 | 335+ 0.0045<br /> 340+ 0.1058 | 340+ 0.0032<br /> 345+ 0.0783 | 345+ 0.0022<br /> 350+ 0.0566 | 350+ 0.0015<br /> 355+ 0.0399 | 355+ 0.0010<br /> 360+ 0.0275 | 360+ 0.0006<br /> 365+ 0.0185 | 365+ 0.0004<br /> 370+ 0.0122 | 370+ 0.0003<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-5142250141255855945?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-68931357181248534172008-09-29T19:31:00.003-04:002008-09-29T19:32:44.671-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the evening of Mon. Sep. 29. Obama's odds continue to rise, presumably in response to the failure of the bailout package in the House and the markets' terrible performance today.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 220+ 0.9899 | 220+ 0.6760<br /> 225+ 0.9864 | 225+ 0.6161<br /> 230+ 0.9817 | 230+ 0.5538<br /> 235+ 0.9757 | 235+ 0.4906<br /> 240+ 0.9679 | 240+ 0.4283<br /> 245+ 0.9580 | 245+ 0.3683<br /> 250+ 0.9453 | 250+ 0.3120<br /> 255+ 0.9292 | 255+ 0.2604<br /> 260+ 0.9090 | 260+ 0.2142<br /> 265+ 0.8843 | 265+ 0.1738<br /> 266+ 0.8787 | 266+ 0.1665<br /> 267+ 0.8729 | 267+ 0.1593<br /> 268+ 0.8669 | 268+ 0.1525<br /> 269+ 0.8607 | 269+ 0.1458<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.8542 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.1393<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.8475 | 271+ 0.1331<br /> 272+ 0.8407 | 272+ 0.1271<br /> 273+ 0.8335 | 273+ 0.1213<br /> 274+ 0.8262 | 274+ 0.1157<br /> 275+ 0.8185 | 275+ 0.1104<br /> 280+ 0.7770 | 280+ 0.0866<br /> 285+ 0.7297 | 285+ 0.0673<br /> 290+ 0.6771 | 290+ 0.0520<br /> 295+ 0.6200 | 295+ 0.0398<br /> 300+ 0.5594 | 300+ 0.0303<br /> 305+ 0.4968 | 305+ 0.0230<br /> 310+ 0.4337 | 310+ 0.0172<br /> 315+ 0.3718 | 315+ 0.0128<br /> 320+ 0.3124 | 320+ 0.0095<br /> 325+ 0.2571 | 325+ 0.0069<br /> 330+ 0.2070 | 330+ 0.0049<br /> 335+ 0.1629 | 335+ 0.0035<br /> 340+ 0.1251 | 340+ 0.0024<br /> 345+ 0.0937 | 345+ 0.0016<br /> 350+ 0.0684 | 350+ 0.0011<br /> 355+ 0.0488 | 355+ 0.0007<br /> 360+ 0.0339 | 360+ 0.0005<br /> 365+ 0.0230 | 365+ 0.0003<br /> 370+ 0.0153 | 370+ 0.0002<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-6893135718124853417?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-49036910019475362062008-09-29T08:32:00.003-04:002008-09-29T08:35:50.629-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Mon. Sep. 29. A bump of a couple of points for Obama.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 215+ 0.9896 | 215+ 0.7704<br /> 220+ 0.9860 | 220+ 0.7185<br /> 225+ 0.9813 | 225+ 0.6620<br /> 230+ 0.9752 | 230+ 0.6021<br /> 235+ 0.9675 | 235+ 0.5402<br /> 240+ 0.9576 | 240+ 0.4780<br /> 245+ 0.9452 | 245+ 0.4169<br /> 250+ 0.9295 | 250+ 0.3583<br /> 255+ 0.9099 | 255+ 0.3036<br /> 260+ 0.8860 | 260+ 0.2537<br /> 265+ 0.8570 | 265+ 0.2090<br /> 266+ 0.8506 | 266+ 0.2008<br /> 267+ 0.8440 | 267+ 0.1927<br /> 268+ 0.8371 | 268+ 0.1850<br /> 269+ 0.8299 | 269+ 0.1774<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.8226 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.1701<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.8150 | 271+ 0.1629<br /> 272+ 0.8073 | 272+ 0.1560<br /> 273+ 0.7992 | 273+ 0.1494<br /> 274+ 0.7910 | 274+ 0.1430<br /> 275+ 0.7824 | 275+ 0.1368<br /> 280+ 0.7368 | 280+ 0.1088<br /> 285+ 0.6857 | 285+ 0.0858<br /> 290+ 0.6302 | 290+ 0.0671<br /> 295+ 0.5710 | 295+ 0.0521<br /> 300+ 0.5096 | 300+ 0.0402<br /> 305+ 0.4473 | 305+ 0.0308<br /> 310+ 0.3857 | 310+ 0.0234<br /> 315+ 0.3264 | 315+ 0.0177<br /> 320+ 0.2707 | 320+ 0.0132<br /> 325+ 0.2198 | 325+ 0.0098<br /> 330+ 0.1745 | 330+ 0.0071<br /> 335+ 0.1354 | 335+ 0.0051<br /> 340+ 0.1026 | 340+ 0.0036<br /> 345+ 0.0758 | 345+ 0.0025<br /> 350+ 0.0547 | 350+ 0.0017<br /> 355+ 0.0385 | 355+ 0.0011<br /> 360+ 0.0265 | 360+ 0.0007<br /> 365+ 0.0178 | 365+ 0.0005<br /> 370+ 0.0118 | 370+ 0.0003<br /></pre><br /><br />The overall Intrade dem v rep president contracts, by contrast, give Obama about a 60% chance of winning.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-4903691001947536206?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-75304832350764203382008-09-28T14:30:00.001-04:002008-09-28T14:30:39.085-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Sep. 28.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 215+ 0.9881 | 215+ 0.7879<br /> 220+ 0.9840 | 220+ 0.7386<br /> 225+ 0.9787 | 225+ 0.6844<br /> 230+ 0.9719 | 230+ 0.6263<br /> 235+ 0.9633 | 235+ 0.5656<br /> 240+ 0.9523 | 240+ 0.5038<br /> 245+ 0.9385 | 245+ 0.4425<br /> 250+ 0.9212 | 250+ 0.3830<br /> 255+ 0.8998 | 255+ 0.3267<br /> 260+ 0.8737 | 260+ 0.2748<br /> 265+ 0.8424 | 265+ 0.2279<br /> 266+ 0.8355 | 266+ 0.2192<br /> 267+ 0.8284 | 267+ 0.2107<br /> 268+ 0.8210 | 268+ 0.2025<br /> 269+ 0.8134 | 269+ 0.1944<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.8056 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.1866<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.7975 | 271+ 0.1790<br /> 272+ 0.7893 | 272+ 0.1716<br /> 273+ 0.7808 | 273+ 0.1645<br /> 274+ 0.7721 | 274+ 0.1576<br /> 275+ 0.7631 | 275+ 0.1509<br /> 280+ 0.7152 | 280+ 0.1207<br /> 285+ 0.6623 | 285+ 0.0956<br /> 290+ 0.6053 | 290+ 0.0750<br /> 295+ 0.5454 | 295+ 0.0585<br /> 300+ 0.4838 | 300+ 0.0453<br /> 305+ 0.4221 | 305+ 0.0348<br /> 310+ 0.3619 | 310+ 0.0266<br /> 315+ 0.3045 | 315+ 0.0201<br /> 320+ 0.2511 | 320+ 0.0151<br /> 325+ 0.2029 | 325+ 0.0112<br /> 330+ 0.1603 | 330+ 0.0083<br /> 335+ 0.1240 | 335+ 0.0060<br /> 340+ 0.0936 | 340+ 0.0043<br /> 345+ 0.0690 | 345+ 0.0030<br /> 350+ 0.0496 | 350+ 0.0020<br /> 355+ 0.0349 | 355+ 0.0014<br /> 360+ 0.0240 | 360+ 0.0009<br /> 365+ 0.0161 | 365+ 0.0006<br /> 370+ 0.0106 | 370+ 0.0004<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-7530483235076420338?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-39652738911099734972008-09-27T16:39:00.002-04:002008-09-27T16:42:24.052-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the afternoon of Sat. Sep. 27. About a 1.5% gain for Obama since the morning, which is in line with about a 1% gain on the "obama to win" contract since then.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 215+ 0.9869 | 215+ 0.7809<br /> 220+ 0.9826 | 220+ 0.7311<br /> 225+ 0.9770 | 225+ 0.6768<br /> 230+ 0.9699 | 230+ 0.6189<br /> 235+ 0.9609 | 235+ 0.5586<br /> 240+ 0.9497 | 240+ 0.4977<br /> 245+ 0.9357 | 245+ 0.4374<br /> 250+ 0.9183 | 250+ 0.3791<br /> 255+ 0.8971 | 255+ 0.3241<br /> 260+ 0.8714 | 260+ 0.2735<br /> 265+ 0.8407 | 265+ 0.2279<br /> 266+ 0.8340 | 266+ 0.2194<br /> 267+ 0.8270 | 267+ 0.2111<br /> 268+ 0.8198 | 268+ 0.2031<br /> 269+ 0.8124 | 269+ 0.1952<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.8048 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.1876<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.7969 | 271+ 0.1802<br /> 272+ 0.7889 | 272+ 0.1730<br /> 273+ 0.7806 | 273+ 0.1660<br /> 274+ 0.7721 | 274+ 0.1593<br /> 275+ 0.7634 | 275+ 0.1527<br /> 280+ 0.7167 | 280+ 0.1231<br /> 285+ 0.6651 | 285+ 0.0984<br /> 290+ 0.6094 | 290+ 0.0779<br /> 295+ 0.5507 | 295+ 0.0613<br /> 300+ 0.4902 | 300+ 0.0479<br /> 305+ 0.4292 | 305+ 0.0371<br /> 310+ 0.3693 | 310+ 0.0286<br /> 315+ 0.3121 | 315+ 0.0218<br /> 320+ 0.2585 | 320+ 0.0165<br /> 325+ 0.2098 | 325+ 0.0123<br /> 330+ 0.1666 | 330+ 0.0091<br /> 335+ 0.1294 | 335+ 0.0066<br /> 340+ 0.0982 | 340+ 0.0047<br /> 345+ 0.0727 | 345+ 0.0033<br /> 350+ 0.0526 | 350+ 0.0023<br /> 355+ 0.0371 | 355+ 0.0016<br /> 360+ 0.0256 | 360+ 0.0011<br /> 365+ 0.0172 | 365+ 0.0007<br /> 370+ 0.0114 | 370+ 0.0004<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-3965273891109973497?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-42058685404537382472008-09-27T11:06:00.003-04:002008-09-27T12:56:35.185-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Sat. Sep. 27, after last night's debate. A further improvement for Obama, up to ~79% to win outright with 270+ votes, plus about a 0.8% chance of a tie at 269 that he would likely win in the House of Reps.<br /><br />Intrade's "presidential election winner" contracts, by contrast, give Obama a 56.7% chance of winning, and McCain a 42.1% chance of winning.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 210+ 0.9891 | 210+ 0.8375<br /> 215+ 0.9854 | 215+ 0.7951<br /> 220+ 0.9806 | 220+ 0.7473<br /> 225+ 0.9745 | 225+ 0.6946<br /> 230+ 0.9667 | 230+ 0.6380<br /> 235+ 0.9569 | 235+ 0.5787<br /> 240+ 0.9447 | 240+ 0.5181<br /> 245+ 0.9295 | 245+ 0.4577<br /> 250+ 0.9108 | 250+ 0.3989<br /> 255+ 0.8880 | 255+ 0.3429<br /> 260+ 0.8606 | 260+ 0.2910<br /> 265+ 0.8282 | 265+ 0.2437<br /> 266+ 0.8211 | 266+ 0.2348<br /> 267+ 0.8138 | 267+ 0.2262<br /> 268+ 0.8062 | 268+ 0.2178<br /> 269+ 0.7984 | 269+ 0.2096<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.7904 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.2016<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.7822 | 271+ 0.1938<br /> 272+ 0.7738 | 272+ 0.1862<br /> 273+ 0.7652 | 273+ 0.1789<br /> 274+ 0.7563 | 274+ 0.1718<br /> 275+ 0.7472 | 275+ 0.1649<br /> 280+ 0.6990 | 280+ 0.1335<br /> 285+ 0.6461 | 285+ 0.1071<br /> 290+ 0.5895 | 290+ 0.0851<br /> 295+ 0.5303 | 295+ 0.0672<br /> 300+ 0.4698 | 300+ 0.0526<br /> 305+ 0.4093 | 305+ 0.0409<br /> 310+ 0.3504 | 310+ 0.0316<br /> 315+ 0.2945 | 315+ 0.0242<br /> 320+ 0.2427 | 320+ 0.0184<br /> 325+ 0.1959 | 325+ 0.0138<br /> 330+ 0.1547 | 330+ 0.0102<br /> 335+ 0.1196 | 335+ 0.0075<br /> 340+ 0.0902 | 340+ 0.0054<br /> 345+ 0.0665 | 345+ 0.0038<br /> 350+ 0.0478 | 350+ 0.0027<br /> 355+ 0.0336 | 355+ 0.0018<br /> 360+ 0.0231 | 360+ 0.0012<br /> 365+ 0.0155 | 365+ 0.0008<br /> 370+ 0.0102 | 370+ 0.0005<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-4205868540453738247?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-19499745176842330562008-09-26T23:09:00.003-04:002008-09-26T23:10:17.959-04:00Immediately after the debate, here are the state-by-state simulation odds. A small improvement for Obama, despite the small improvement for McCain in the overall "McCain to win" contract.<br /><br />As always, each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 205+ 0.9888 | 205+ 0.8758<br /> 210+ 0.9849 | 210+ 0.8411<br /> 215+ 0.9800 | 215+ 0.8009<br /> 220+ 0.9739 | 220+ 0.7554<br /> 225+ 0.9663 | 225+ 0.7053<br /> 230+ 0.9568 | 230+ 0.6513<br /> 235+ 0.9453 | 235+ 0.5945<br /> 240+ 0.9312 | 240+ 0.5363<br /> 245+ 0.9141 | 245+ 0.4779<br /> 250+ 0.8935 | 250+ 0.4206<br /> 255+ 0.8689 | 255+ 0.3657<br /> 260+ 0.8399 | 260+ 0.3143<br /> 265+ 0.8062 | 265+ 0.2670<br /> 266+ 0.7988 | 266+ 0.2581<br /> 267+ 0.7913 | 267+ 0.2493<br /> 268+ 0.7836 | 268+ 0.2408<br /> 269+ 0.7756 | 269+ 0.2325<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.7675 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.2244<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.7592 | 271+ 0.2164<br /> 272+ 0.7507 | 272+ 0.2087<br /> 273+ 0.7419 | 273+ 0.2012<br /> 274+ 0.7330 | 274+ 0.1938<br /> 275+ 0.7239 | 275+ 0.1867<br /> 280+ 0.6757 | 280+ 0.1539<br /> 285+ 0.6235 | 285+ 0.1259<br /> 290+ 0.5680 | 290+ 0.1021<br /> 295+ 0.5105 | 295+ 0.0823<br /> 300+ 0.4520 | 300+ 0.0658<br /> 305+ 0.3940 | 305+ 0.0522<br /> 310+ 0.3377 | 310+ 0.0411<br /> 315+ 0.2844 | 315+ 0.0321<br /> 320+ 0.2351 | 320+ 0.0248<br /> 325+ 0.1906 | 325+ 0.0189<br /> 330+ 0.1515 | 330+ 0.0143<br /> 335+ 0.1179 | 335+ 0.0106<br /> 340+ 0.0898 | 340+ 0.0077<br /> 345+ 0.0669 | 345+ 0.0056<br /> 350+ 0.0488 | 350+ 0.0039<br /> 355+ 0.0348 | 355+ 0.0027<br /> 360+ 0.0242 | 360+ 0.0019<br /> 365+ 0.0165 | 365+ 0.0012<br /> 370+ 0.0111 | 370+ 0.0008<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-1949974517684233056?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-61780258717692514252008-09-26T10:24:00.001-04:002008-09-26T10:26:10.608-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Fri. Sep. 26. Not much change from yesterday afternoon, about a 2% drop for Obama.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 200+ 0.9895 | 200+ 0.9283<br /> 205+ 0.9858 | 205+ 0.9042<br /> 210+ 0.9811 | 210+ 0.8748<br /> 215+ 0.9752 | 215+ 0.8398<br /> 220+ 0.9679 | 220+ 0.7992<br /> 225+ 0.9588 | 225+ 0.7533<br /> 230+ 0.9477 | 230+ 0.7025<br /> 235+ 0.9341 | 235+ 0.6478<br /> 240+ 0.9175 | 240+ 0.5903<br /> 245+ 0.8976 | 245+ 0.5313<br /> 250+ 0.8737 | 250+ 0.4722<br /> 255+ 0.8454 | 255+ 0.4144<br /> 260+ 0.8122 | 260+ 0.3592<br /> 265+ 0.7740 | 265+ 0.3075<br /> 266+ 0.7657 | 266+ 0.2977<br /> 267+ 0.7573 | 267+ 0.2880<br /> 268+ 0.7486 | 268+ 0.2786<br /> 269+ 0.7397 | 269+ 0.2694<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.7306 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.2603<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.7214 | 271+ 0.2514<br /> 272+ 0.7120 | 272+ 0.2427<br /> 273+ 0.7023 | 273+ 0.2343<br /> 274+ 0.6925 | 274+ 0.2260<br /> 275+ 0.6825 | 275+ 0.2180<br /> 280+ 0.6301 | 280+ 0.1808<br /> 285+ 0.5742 | 285+ 0.1486<br /> 290+ 0.5160 | 290+ 0.1212<br /> 295+ 0.4568 | 295+ 0.0981<br /> 300+ 0.3981 | 300+ 0.0789<br /> 305+ 0.3410 | 305+ 0.0630<br /> 310+ 0.2870 | 310+ 0.0499<br /> 315+ 0.2372 | 315+ 0.0392<br /> 320+ 0.1922 | 320+ 0.0305<br /> 325+ 0.1527 | 325+ 0.0235<br /> 330+ 0.1188 | 330+ 0.0178<br /> 335+ 0.0906 | 335+ 0.0134<br /> 340+ 0.0675 | 340+ 0.0099<br /> 345+ 0.0492 | 345+ 0.0072<br /> 350+ 0.0351 | 350+ 0.0051<br /> 355+ 0.0245 | 355+ 0.0036<br /> 360+ 0.0167 | 360+ 0.0025<br /> 365+ 0.0112 | 365+ 0.0017<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-6178025871769251425?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-89060489039887083872008-09-25T15:56:00.004-04:002008-09-25T16:01:44.130-04:00According to this afternoon's Intrade state-by-state numbers (again, under certain assumptions), Obama is currently the favorite to win the 270+ electoral votes he needs to win the White House. His ~3:1 odds this afternoon are ~5% better than they were this morning, and ~10% better than yesterday morning.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 205+ 0.9885 | 205+ 0.8946<br /> 210+ 0.9846 | 210+ 0.8631<br /> 215+ 0.9796 | 215+ 0.8258<br /> 220+ 0.9733 | 220+ 0.7829<br /> 225+ 0.9653 | 225+ 0.7349<br /> 230+ 0.9555 | 230+ 0.6822<br /> 235+ 0.9433 | 235+ 0.6259<br /> 240+ 0.9283 | 240+ 0.5673<br /> 245+ 0.9099 | 245+ 0.5076<br /> 250+ 0.8877 | 250+ 0.4484<br /> 255+ 0.8611 | 255+ 0.3909<br /> 260+ 0.8296 | 260+ 0.3364<br /> 265+ 0.7930 | 265+ 0.2858<br /> 266+ 0.7851 | 266+ 0.2763<br /> 267+ 0.7770 | 267+ 0.2669<br /> 268+ 0.7686 | 268+ 0.2578<br /> 269+ 0.7600 | 269+ 0.2488<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.7512 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.2400<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.7422 | 271+ 0.2314<br /> 272+ 0.7331 | 272+ 0.2230<br /> 273+ 0.7237 | 273+ 0.2149<br /> 274+ 0.7142 | 274+ 0.2070<br /> 275+ 0.7044 | 275+ 0.1992<br /> 280+ 0.6530 | 280+ 0.1637<br /> 285+ 0.5978 | 285+ 0.1333<br /> 290+ 0.5399 | 290+ 0.1075<br /> 295+ 0.4804 | 295+ 0.0861<br /> 300+ 0.4209 | 300+ 0.0685<br /> 305+ 0.3626 | 305+ 0.0541<br /> 310+ 0.3070 | 310+ 0.0424<br /> 315+ 0.2552 | 315+ 0.0329<br /> 320+ 0.2081 | 320+ 0.0254<br /> 325+ 0.1663 | 325+ 0.0193<br /> 330+ 0.1301 | 330+ 0.0146<br /> 335+ 0.0997 | 335+ 0.0108<br /> 340+ 0.0747 | 340+ 0.0080<br /> 345+ 0.0548 | 345+ 0.0057<br /> 350+ 0.0393 | 350+ 0.0041<br /> 355+ 0.0275 | 355+ 0.0029<br /> 360+ 0.0189 | 360+ 0.0020<br /> 365+ 0.0127 | 365+ 0.0013<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-8906048903988708387?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-15946213576022394182008-09-25T08:40:00.004-04:002008-09-25T10:26:31.854-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Sep. 25. These numbers show about a +5% bump for Obama, significantly more than the global "Obama next president" contract has gone up on Intrade.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 200+ 0.9882 | 200+ 0.9430<br /> 205+ 0.9842 | 205+ 0.9228<br /> 210+ 0.9790 | 210+ 0.8976<br /> 215+ 0.9726 | 215+ 0.8671<br /> 220+ 0.9645 | 220+ 0.8309<br /> 225+ 0.9544 | 225+ 0.7891<br /> 230+ 0.9420 | 230+ 0.7420<br /> 235+ 0.9266 | 235+ 0.6901<br /> 240+ 0.9078 | 240+ 0.6345<br /> 245+ 0.8851 | 245+ 0.5762<br /> 250+ 0.8578 | 250+ 0.5166<br /> 255+ 0.8256 | 255+ 0.4570<br /> 260+ 0.7881 | 260+ 0.3990<br /> 265+ 0.7454 | 265+ 0.3438<br /> 266+ 0.7363 | 266+ 0.3331<br /> 267+ 0.7270 | 267+ 0.3227<br /> 268+ 0.7174 | 268+ 0.3124<br /> 269+ 0.7076 | 269+ 0.3023<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.6977 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.2924<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.6876 | 271+ 0.2826<br /> 272+ 0.6773 | 272+ 0.2730<br /> 273+ 0.6669 | 273+ 0.2637<br /> 274+ 0.6562 | 274+ 0.2546<br /> 275+ 0.6454 | 275+ 0.2456<br /> 280+ 0.5896 | 280+ 0.2039<br /> 285+ 0.5311 | 285+ 0.1676<br /> 290+ 0.4715 | 290+ 0.1364<br /> 295+ 0.4120 | 295+ 0.1101<br /> 300+ 0.3542 | 300+ 0.0881<br /> 305+ 0.2992 | 305+ 0.0701<br /> 310+ 0.2482 | 310+ 0.0553<br /> 315+ 0.2021 | 315+ 0.0434<br /> 320+ 0.1614 | 320+ 0.0337<br /> 325+ 0.1264 | 325+ 0.0260<br /> 330+ 0.0969 | 330+ 0.0198<br /> 335+ 0.0728 | 335+ 0.0150<br /> 340+ 0.0535 | 340+ 0.0111<br /> 345+ 0.0385 | 345+ 0.0082<br /> 350+ 0.0271 | 350+ 0.0059<br /> 355+ 0.0187 | 355+ 0.0042<br /> 360+ 0.0126 | 360+ 0.0029<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-1594621357602239418?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-23373547862846632122008-09-24T08:21:00.001-04:002008-09-24T10:39:04.569-04:00<b>Edit: I accidentally posted the result of a new, faster, more accurate script that unfortunately forgot to calculate the probs for McCain. Oops.</b><br /><br />Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Sep. 24.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright. But a tie at 269 isn't impossible...<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 195+ 0.9870 | 195+ 0.9689<br /> 200+ 0.9826 | 200+ 0.9564<br /> 205+ 0.9770 | 205+ 0.9400<br /> 210+ 0.9701 | 210+ 0.9192<br /> 215+ 0.9616 | 215+ 0.8935<br /> 220+ 0.9511 | 220+ 0.8625<br /> 225+ 0.9383 | 225+ 0.8259<br /> 230+ 0.9227 | 230+ 0.7838<br /> 235+ 0.9039 | 235+ 0.7365<br /> 240+ 0.8813 | 240+ 0.6848<br /> 245+ 0.8544 | 245+ 0.6294<br /> 250+ 0.8228 | 250+ 0.5716<br /> 255+ 0.7862 | 255+ 0.5127<br /> 260+ 0.7444 | 260+ 0.4540<br /> 265+ 0.6977 | 265+ 0.3970<br /> 266+ 0.6879 | 266+ 0.3859<br /> 267+ 0.6778 | 267+ 0.3749<br /> 268+ 0.6676 | 268+ 0.3641<br /> 269+ 0.6572 | 269+ 0.3534<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.6466 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.3428<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.6359 | 271+ 0.3324<br /> 272+ 0.6251 | 272+ 0.3222<br /> 273+ 0.6141 | 273+ 0.3121<br /> 274+ 0.6030 | 274+ 0.3023<br /> 275+ 0.5917 | 275+ 0.2925<br /> 280+ 0.5343 | 280+ 0.2468<br /> 285+ 0.4755 | 285+ 0.2061<br /> 290+ 0.4167 | 290+ 0.1705<br /> 295+ 0.3593 | 295+ 0.1398<br /> 300+ 0.3046 | 300+ 0.1138<br /> 305+ 0.2536 | 305+ 0.0920<br /> 310+ 0.2074 | 310+ 0.0739<br /> 315+ 0.1664 | 315+ 0.0589<br /> 320+ 0.1309 | 320+ 0.0466<br /> 325+ 0.1009 | 325+ 0.0366<br /> 330+ 0.0762 | 330+ 0.0284<br /> 335+ 0.0564 | 335+ 0.0218<br /> 340+ 0.0408 | 340+ 0.0165<br /> 345+ 0.0290 | 345+ 0.0123<br /> 350+ 0.0201 | 350+ 0.0090<br /> 355+ 0.0137 | 355+ 0.0065<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-2337354786284663212?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-10178816003093141472008-09-23T14:41:00.001-04:002008-09-23T14:42:23.763-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Sep. 23, as of around 2:40 pm.<br /><br />Remember, each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 isn't impossible.<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 195+ 0.9871 | 195+ 0.9680<br /> 200+ 0.9829 | 200+ 0.9550<br /> 205+ 0.9774 | 205+ 0.9384<br /> 210+ 0.9706 | 210+ 0.9175<br /> 215+ 0.9620 | 215+ 0.8914<br /> 220+ 0.9518 | 220+ 0.8605<br /> 225+ 0.9391 | 225+ 0.8238<br /> 230+ 0.9237 | 230+ 0.7814<br /> 235+ 0.9051 | 235+ 0.7339<br /> 240+ 0.8826 | 240+ 0.6821<br /> 245+ 0.8561 | 245+ 0.6267<br /> 250+ 0.8245 | 250+ 0.5688<br /> 255+ 0.7881 | 255+ 0.5100<br /> 260+ 0.7468 | 260+ 0.4512<br /> 265+ 0.7006 | 265+ 0.3940<br /> 266+ 0.6907 | 266+ 0.3830<br /> 267+ 0.6807 | 267+ 0.3720<br /> 268+ 0.6705 | 268+ 0.3611<br /> 269+ 0.6601 | 269+ 0.3505<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.6495 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.3399<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.6389 | 271+ 0.3295<br /> 272+ 0.6280 | 272+ 0.3193<br /> 273+ 0.6170 | 273+ 0.3093<br /> 274+ 0.6060 | 274+ 0.2994<br /> 275+ 0.5946 | 275+ 0.2899<br /> 280+ 0.5372 | 280+ 0.2445<br /> 285+ 0.4781 | 285+ 0.2042<br /> 290+ 0.4192 | 290+ 0.1688<br /> 295+ 0.3619 | 295+ 0.1384<br /> 300+ 0.3070 | 300+ 0.1126<br /> 305+ 0.2563 | 305+ 0.0909<br /> 310+ 0.2097 | 310+ 0.0730<br /> 315+ 0.1685 | 315+ 0.0582<br /> 320+ 0.1328 | 320+ 0.0460<br /> 325+ 0.1028 | 325+ 0.0362<br /> 330+ 0.0779 | 330+ 0.0279<br /> 335+ 0.0579 | 335+ 0.0214<br /> 340+ 0.0420 | 340+ 0.0163<br /> 345+ 0.0298 | 345+ 0.0121<br /> 350+ 0.0207 | 350+ 0.0089<br /> 355+ 0.0141 | 355+ 0.0064<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-1017881600309314147?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-79446784708449184642008-09-23T08:04:00.001-04:002008-09-23T08:04:51.634-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Sep. 23.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright. But a tie at 269 isn't impossible...<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 190+ 0.9897 | 190+ 0.9799<br /> 195+ 0.9862 | 195+ 0.9710<br /> 200+ 0.9816 | 200+ 0.9590<br /> 205+ 0.9758 | 205+ 0.9433<br /> 210+ 0.9687 | 210+ 0.9235<br /> 215+ 0.9599 | 215+ 0.8988<br /> 220+ 0.9490 | 220+ 0.8687<br /> 225+ 0.9357 | 225+ 0.8334<br /> 230+ 0.9195 | 230+ 0.7922<br /> 235+ 0.8999 | 235+ 0.7457<br /> 240+ 0.8766 | 240+ 0.6953<br /> 245+ 0.8487 | 245+ 0.6403<br /> 250+ 0.8162 | 250+ 0.5829<br /> 255+ 0.7783 | 255+ 0.5239<br /> 260+ 0.7354 | 260+ 0.4654<br /> 265+ 0.6879 | 265+ 0.4079<br /> 266+ 0.6779 | 266+ 0.3966<br /> 267+ 0.6678 | 267+ 0.3854<br /> 268+ 0.6575 | 268+ 0.3745<br /> 269+ 0.6471 | 269+ 0.3637<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.6363 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.3529<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.6255 | 271+ 0.3425<br /> 272+ 0.6146 | 272+ 0.3322<br /> 273+ 0.6034 | 273+ 0.3221<br /> 274+ 0.5921 | 274+ 0.3121<br /> 275+ 0.5807 | 275+ 0.3023<br /> 280+ 0.5231 | 280+ 0.2557<br /> 285+ 0.4642 | 285+ 0.2138<br /> 290+ 0.4055 | 290+ 0.1770<br /> 295+ 0.3484 | 295+ 0.1453<br /> 300+ 0.2943 | 300+ 0.1185<br /> 305+ 0.2447 | 305+ 0.0959<br /> 310+ 0.1991 | 310+ 0.0771<br /> 315+ 0.1591 | 315+ 0.0614<br /> 320+ 0.1249 | 320+ 0.0487<br /> 325+ 0.0958 | 325+ 0.0382<br /> 330+ 0.0721 | 330+ 0.0298<br /> 335+ 0.0533 | 335+ 0.0229<br /> 340+ 0.0383 | 340+ 0.0174<br /> 345+ 0.0270 | 345+ 0.0131<br /> 350+ 0.0187 | 350+ 0.0097<br /> 355+ 0.0126 | 355+ 0.0070<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-7944678470844918464?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-17574708451315575462008-09-22T07:58:00.000-04:002008-09-22T07:59:22.376-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Mon. Sep. 22.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright. But a tie at 269 isn't impossible...<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 190+ 0.9887 | 190+ 0.9819<br /> 195+ 0.9849 | 195+ 0.9739<br /> 200+ 0.9800 | 200+ 0.9629<br /> 205+ 0.9737 | 205+ 0.9485<br /> 210+ 0.9658 | 210+ 0.9301<br /> 215+ 0.9562 | 215+ 0.9070<br /> 220+ 0.9445 | 220+ 0.8792<br /> 225+ 0.9303 | 225+ 0.8456<br /> 230+ 0.9131 | 230+ 0.8064<br /> 235+ 0.8924 | 235+ 0.7617<br /> 240+ 0.8676 | 240+ 0.7123<br /> 245+ 0.8381 | 245+ 0.6584<br /> 250+ 0.8036 | 250+ 0.6023<br /> 255+ 0.7644 | 255+ 0.5443<br /> 260+ 0.7201 | 260+ 0.4856<br /> 265+ 0.6705 | 265+ 0.4278<br /> 266+ 0.6603 | 266+ 0.4165<br /> 267+ 0.6497 | 267+ 0.4052<br /> 268+ 0.6391 | 268+ 0.3940<br /> 269+ 0.6281 | 269+ 0.3829<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.6171 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.3719<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.6060 | 271+ 0.3609<br /> 272+ 0.5948 | 272+ 0.3503<br /> 273+ 0.5835 | 273+ 0.3397<br /> 274+ 0.5722 | 274+ 0.3295<br /> 275+ 0.5607 | 275+ 0.3191<br /> 280+ 0.5029 | 280+ 0.2708<br /> 285+ 0.4441 | 285+ 0.2272<br /> 290+ 0.3864 | 290+ 0.1890<br /> 295+ 0.3306 | 295+ 0.1557<br /> 300+ 0.2776 | 300+ 0.1271<br /> 305+ 0.2289 | 305+ 0.1031<br /> 310+ 0.1853 | 310+ 0.0831<br /> 315+ 0.1472 | 315+ 0.0666<br /> 320+ 0.1149 | 320+ 0.0530<br /> 325+ 0.0880 | 325+ 0.0417<br /> 330+ 0.0659 | 330+ 0.0325<br /> 335+ 0.0483 | 335+ 0.0250<br /> 340+ 0.0346 | 340+ 0.0190<br /> 345+ 0.0243 | 345+ 0.0143<br /> 350+ 0.0167 | 350+ 0.0106<br /> 355+ 0.0112 | 355+ 0.0077<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-1757470845131557546?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-21848225921351232522008-09-21T13:43:00.009-04:002008-09-21T14:01:14.256-04:00Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Sep. 21.<br /><br />Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright. But a tie at 269 isn't impossible...<br /><br /><pre style="font-family: courier"> Obama | McCain<br />Votes Probability | Votes Probability<br /> 190+ 0.9881 | 190+ 0.9816<br /> 195+ 0.9839 | 195+ 0.9733<br /> 200+ 0.9788 | 200+ 0.9624<br /> 205+ 0.9723 | 205+ 0.9478<br /> 210+ 0.9644 | 210+ 0.9292<br /> 215+ 0.9547 | 215+ 0.9060<br /> 220+ 0.9428 | 220+ 0.8774<br /> 225+ 0.9285 | 225+ 0.8433<br /> 230+ 0.9111 | 230+ 0.8044<br /> 235+ 0.8904 | 235+ 0.7601<br /> 240+ 0.8657 | 240+ 0.7103<br /> 245+ 0.8364 | 245+ 0.6570<br /> 250+ 0.8025 | 250+ 0.6003<br /> 255+ 0.7635 | 255+ 0.5420<br /> 260+ 0.7197 | 260+ 0.4834<br /> 265+ 0.6713 | 265+ 0.4259<br /> 266+ 0.6609 | 266+ 0.4146<br /> 267+ 0.6507 | 267+ 0.4034<br /> 268+ 0.6403 | 268+ 0.3923<br /> 269+ 0.6294 | 269+ 0.3814<br /><b><i> 270+ 0.6186 </b></i>|<b><i> 270+ 0.3706<br /></b></i> 271+ 0.6077 | 271+ 0.3597<br /> 272+ 0.5966 | 272+ 0.3493<br /> 273+ 0.5854 | 273+ 0.3391<br /> 274+ 0.5741 | 274+ 0.3287<br /> 275+ 0.5627 | 275+ 0.3188<br /> 280+ 0.5050 | 280+ 0.2711<br /> 285+ 0.4462 | 285+ 0.2283<br /> 290+ 0.3882 | 290+ 0.1904<br /> 295+ 0.3321 | 295+ 0.1573<br /> 300+ 0.2794 | 300+ 0.1290<br /> 305+ 0.2305 | 305+ 0.1051<br /> 310+ 0.1874 | 310+ 0.0851<br /> 315+ 0.1494 | 315+ 0.0684<br /> 320+ 0.1164 | 320+ 0.0547<br /> 325+ 0.0890 | 325+ 0.0432<br /> 330+ 0.0667 | 330+ 0.0339<br /> 335+ 0.0490 | 335+ 0.0263<br /> 340+ 0.0352 | 340+ 0.0201<br /> 345+ 0.0247 | 345+ 0.0152<br /> 350+ 0.0171 | 350+ 0.0113<br /> 355+ 0.0116 | 355+ 0.0081<br /></pre><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-2184822592135123252?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264412886788968467.post-6042821634628833542008-09-20T09:52:00.000-04:002008-09-20T11:59:51.416-04:00<div><br />Hello!<br /><br />This is a blog I set up so that other people could see the results of my procrastinatory activities, and have their time likewise wasted.<br /><br />The basic concept is this: I download the current probabilities that each state in the U.S. will go for Obama or McCain from <a href="http://www.intrade.com/">Intrade</a>. (For those not familiar with Intrade, Slate has <a href="http://specials.slate.com/futures/2008/">an introduction</a>.) Some scripts I wrote run many many thousands of virtual elections based on those probabilities, counting how many electoral votes each candidate gets in each scenario. Then I publish the results here, telling you how likely it is that Obama will get 269+ electoral votes vs. 270+ electoral votes, etc.<br /><br />The results tend to differ significantly from the overall "McCain next president" or "Democrat next president" contracts. Feel free to speculate on why that is.<br /><br />They also differ from what Intrade has recently started posting, which is the electoral outcome of the <i>most likely</i> scenario only. That is, they're only publishing the mode of the distribution over electoral votes, which to me is less interesting than some other statistics. I give you the whole <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulative_distribution_function">CDF</a>.<br /><br />The more statistically savvy among you have probably noticed two major problems with this approach:<br />1. I'm assuming that the outcome in each state is independent. Under this assumption, McCain could (with very small probability) lose Pennsylvania and win New York. In reality, McCain winning New York would more likely be the result of some hyper-catastrophic event for the Democratic party that would result in a universal landslide for McCain. If anyone has some good ideas about how to model the correlations between states, I'd be interested to hear them, but I'm also likely to not do anything with them. There's other stuff I should probably be doing.<br />2. I'm assuming that the Intrade state-by-state data accurately integrate all available information about the likely outcomes of each state's contest. They might. They might not. The purpose of this blog is not to argue the accuracy of predictive markets. It's to make it easier to waste time obsessing over politics.<br /></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/264412886788968467-604282163462883354?l=politicalsimulation.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Matt Hoffmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14299125095823512797noreply@blogger.com8