Tuesday Afternoon's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Sep. 30. 87% chance that Obama wins, says the simulation, which is pretty high. But only about 23% higher than the 64% chance Intrade's "Obama to win" contract gives him, which is similar to the sorts of discrepancies we've been seeing since I started doing these analyses. Of course, that's got to flatten out as we approach 100%.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 225+       0.9882    |    225+       0.5854
 230+       0.9841    |    230+       0.5222
 235+       0.9788    |    235+       0.4589
 240+       0.9720    |    240+       0.3975
 245+       0.9631    |    245+       0.3391
 250+       0.9519    |    250+       0.2850
 255+       0.9376    |    255+       0.2360
 260+       0.9197    |    260+       0.1929
 265+       0.8974    |    265+       0.1555
 266+       0.8924    |    266+       0.1487
 267+       0.8872    |    267+       0.1422
 268+       0.8817    |    268+       0.1359
 269+       0.8761    |    269+       0.1298
 270+       0.8702    |    270+       0.1239
 271+       0.8641    |    271+       0.1183
 272+       0.8578    |    272+       0.1128
 273+       0.8513    |    273+       0.1076
 274+       0.8445    |    274+       0.1026
 275+       0.8374    |    275+       0.0978
 280+       0.7990    |    280+       0.0764
 285+       0.7545    |    285+       0.0593
 290+       0.7045    |    290+       0.0456
 295+       0.6495    |    295+       0.0349
 300+       0.5904    |    300+       0.0265
 305+       0.5284    |    305+       0.0200
 310+       0.4651    |    310+       0.0150
 315+       0.4021    |    315+       0.0111
 320+       0.3410    |    320+       0.0081
 325+       0.2832    |    325+       0.0059
 330+       0.2301    |    330+       0.0042
 335+       0.1828    |    335+       0.0029
 340+       0.1417    |    340+       0.0020
 345+       0.1071    |    345+       0.0014
 350+       0.0790    |    350+       0.0009
 355+       0.0568    |    355+       0.0006
 360+       0.0399    |    360+       0.0004
 365+       0.0273    |    365+       0.0002
 370+       0.0183    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0120    |    375+       0.0001

Tuesday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Sep. 30. McCain's a couple of points higher than last night, which is interesting since the overall "McCain to win" contract is down a little since yesterday. Still, it's hard to imagine that Obama's numbers could have gotten much higher than they were, at 85%+.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 220+       0.9874    |    220+       0.7118
 225+       0.9831    |    225+       0.6545
 230+       0.9775    |    230+       0.5940
 235+       0.9703    |    235+       0.5316
 240+       0.9610    |    240+       0.4690
 245+       0.9492    |    245+       0.4078
 250+       0.9342    |    250+       0.3493
 255+       0.9154    |    255+       0.2948
 260+       0.8921    |    260+       0.2452
 265+       0.8638    |    265+       0.2011
 266+       0.8575    |    266+       0.1929
 267+       0.8510    |    267+       0.1850
 268+       0.8443    |    268+       0.1774
 269+       0.8373    |    269+       0.1700
 270+       0.8300    |    270+       0.1627
 271+       0.8226    |    271+       0.1557
 272+       0.8150    |    272+       0.1490
 273+       0.8071    |    273+       0.1425
 274+       0.7989    |    274+       0.1362
 275+       0.7905    |    275+       0.1301
 280+       0.7453    |    280+       0.1029
 285+       0.6946    |    285+       0.0806
 290+       0.6392    |    290+       0.0626
 295+       0.5801    |    295+       0.0482
 300+       0.5186    |    300+       0.0369
 305+       0.4558    |    305+       0.0281
 310+       0.3937    |    310+       0.0212
 315+       0.3338    |    315+       0.0159
 320+       0.2773    |    320+       0.0118
 325+       0.2255    |    325+       0.0087
 330+       0.1794    |    330+       0.0063
 335+       0.1395    |    335+       0.0045
 340+       0.1058    |    340+       0.0032
 345+       0.0783    |    345+       0.0022
 350+       0.0566    |    350+       0.0015
 355+       0.0399    |    355+       0.0010
 360+       0.0275    |    360+       0.0006
 365+       0.0185    |    365+       0.0004
 370+       0.0122    |    370+       0.0003

Monday night's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the evening of Mon. Sep. 29. Obama's odds continue to rise, presumably in response to the failure of the bailout package in the House and the markets' terrible performance today.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 220+       0.9899    |    220+       0.6760
 225+       0.9864    |    225+       0.6161
 230+       0.9817    |    230+       0.5538
 235+       0.9757    |    235+       0.4906
 240+       0.9679    |    240+       0.4283
 245+       0.9580    |    245+       0.3683
 250+       0.9453    |    250+       0.3120
 255+       0.9292    |    255+       0.2604
 260+       0.9090    |    260+       0.2142
 265+       0.8843    |    265+       0.1738
 266+       0.8787    |    266+       0.1665
 267+       0.8729    |    267+       0.1593
 268+       0.8669    |    268+       0.1525
 269+       0.8607    |    269+       0.1458
 270+       0.8542    |    270+       0.1393
 271+       0.8475    |    271+       0.1331
 272+       0.8407    |    272+       0.1271
 273+       0.8335    |    273+       0.1213
 274+       0.8262    |    274+       0.1157
 275+       0.8185    |    275+       0.1104
 280+       0.7770    |    280+       0.0866
 285+       0.7297    |    285+       0.0673
 290+       0.6771    |    290+       0.0520
 295+       0.6200    |    295+       0.0398
 300+       0.5594    |    300+       0.0303
 305+       0.4968    |    305+       0.0230
 310+       0.4337    |    310+       0.0172
 315+       0.3718    |    315+       0.0128
 320+       0.3124    |    320+       0.0095
 325+       0.2571    |    325+       0.0069
 330+       0.2070    |    330+       0.0049
 335+       0.1629    |    335+       0.0035
 340+       0.1251    |    340+       0.0024
 345+       0.0937    |    345+       0.0016
 350+       0.0684    |    350+       0.0011
 355+       0.0488    |    355+       0.0007
 360+       0.0339    |    360+       0.0005
 365+       0.0230    |    365+       0.0003
 370+       0.0153    |    370+       0.0002

Monday morning's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Mon. Sep. 29. A bump of a couple of points for Obama.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 215+       0.9896    |    215+       0.7704
 220+       0.9860    |    220+       0.7185
 225+       0.9813    |    225+       0.6620
 230+       0.9752    |    230+       0.6021
 235+       0.9675    |    235+       0.5402
 240+       0.9576    |    240+       0.4780
 245+       0.9452    |    245+       0.4169
 250+       0.9295    |    250+       0.3583
 255+       0.9099    |    255+       0.3036
 260+       0.8860    |    260+       0.2537
 265+       0.8570    |    265+       0.2090
 266+       0.8506    |    266+       0.2008
 267+       0.8440    |    267+       0.1927
 268+       0.8371    |    268+       0.1850
 269+       0.8299    |    269+       0.1774
 270+       0.8226    |    270+       0.1701
 271+       0.8150    |    271+       0.1629
 272+       0.8073    |    272+       0.1560
 273+       0.7992    |    273+       0.1494
 274+       0.7910    |    274+       0.1430
 275+       0.7824    |    275+       0.1368
 280+       0.7368    |    280+       0.1088
 285+       0.6857    |    285+       0.0858
 290+       0.6302    |    290+       0.0671
 295+       0.5710    |    295+       0.0521
 300+       0.5096    |    300+       0.0402
 305+       0.4473    |    305+       0.0308
 310+       0.3857    |    310+       0.0234
 315+       0.3264    |    315+       0.0177
 320+       0.2707    |    320+       0.0132
 325+       0.2198    |    325+       0.0098
 330+       0.1745    |    330+       0.0071
 335+       0.1354    |    335+       0.0051
 340+       0.1026    |    340+       0.0036
 345+       0.0758    |    345+       0.0025
 350+       0.0547    |    350+       0.0017
 355+       0.0385    |    355+       0.0011
 360+       0.0265    |    360+       0.0007
 365+       0.0178    |    365+       0.0005
 370+       0.0118    |    370+       0.0003

The overall Intrade dem v rep president contracts, by contrast, give Obama about a 60% chance of winning.

Sunday afternoon's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Sep. 28.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 215+       0.9881    |    215+       0.7879
 220+       0.9840    |    220+       0.7386
 225+       0.9787    |    225+       0.6844
 230+       0.9719    |    230+       0.6263
 235+       0.9633    |    235+       0.5656
 240+       0.9523    |    240+       0.5038
 245+       0.9385    |    245+       0.4425
 250+       0.9212    |    250+       0.3830
 255+       0.8998    |    255+       0.3267
 260+       0.8737    |    260+       0.2748
 265+       0.8424    |    265+       0.2279
 266+       0.8355    |    266+       0.2192
 267+       0.8284    |    267+       0.2107
 268+       0.8210    |    268+       0.2025
 269+       0.8134    |    269+       0.1944
 270+       0.8056    |    270+       0.1866
 271+       0.7975    |    271+       0.1790
 272+       0.7893    |    272+       0.1716
 273+       0.7808    |    273+       0.1645
 274+       0.7721    |    274+       0.1576
 275+       0.7631    |    275+       0.1509
 280+       0.7152    |    280+       0.1207
 285+       0.6623    |    285+       0.0956
 290+       0.6053    |    290+       0.0750
 295+       0.5454    |    295+       0.0585
 300+       0.4838    |    300+       0.0453
 305+       0.4221    |    305+       0.0348
 310+       0.3619    |    310+       0.0266
 315+       0.3045    |    315+       0.0201
 320+       0.2511    |    320+       0.0151
 325+       0.2029    |    325+       0.0112
 330+       0.1603    |    330+       0.0083
 335+       0.1240    |    335+       0.0060
 340+       0.0936    |    340+       0.0043
 345+       0.0690    |    345+       0.0030
 350+       0.0496    |    350+       0.0020
 355+       0.0349    |    355+       0.0014
 360+       0.0240    |    360+       0.0009
 365+       0.0161    |    365+       0.0006
 370+       0.0106    |    370+       0.0004

Saturday afternoon's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the afternoon of Sat. Sep. 27. About a 1.5% gain for Obama since the morning, which is in line with about a 1% gain on the "obama to win" contract since then.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 215+       0.9869    |    215+       0.7809
 220+       0.9826    |    220+       0.7311
 225+       0.9770    |    225+       0.6768
 230+       0.9699    |    230+       0.6189
 235+       0.9609    |    235+       0.5586
 240+       0.9497    |    240+       0.4977
 245+       0.9357    |    245+       0.4374
 250+       0.9183    |    250+       0.3791
 255+       0.8971    |    255+       0.3241
 260+       0.8714    |    260+       0.2735
 265+       0.8407    |    265+       0.2279
 266+       0.8340    |    266+       0.2194
 267+       0.8270    |    267+       0.2111
 268+       0.8198    |    268+       0.2031
 269+       0.8124    |    269+       0.1952
 270+       0.8048    |    270+       0.1876
 271+       0.7969    |    271+       0.1802
 272+       0.7889    |    272+       0.1730
 273+       0.7806    |    273+       0.1660
 274+       0.7721    |    274+       0.1593
 275+       0.7634    |    275+       0.1527
 280+       0.7167    |    280+       0.1231
 285+       0.6651    |    285+       0.0984
 290+       0.6094    |    290+       0.0779
 295+       0.5507    |    295+       0.0613
 300+       0.4902    |    300+       0.0479
 305+       0.4292    |    305+       0.0371
 310+       0.3693    |    310+       0.0286
 315+       0.3121    |    315+       0.0218
 320+       0.2585    |    320+       0.0165
 325+       0.2098    |    325+       0.0123
 330+       0.1666    |    330+       0.0091
 335+       0.1294    |    335+       0.0066
 340+       0.0982    |    340+       0.0047
 345+       0.0727    |    345+       0.0033
 350+       0.0526    |    350+       0.0023
 355+       0.0371    |    355+       0.0016
 360+       0.0256    |    360+       0.0011
 365+       0.0172    |    365+       0.0007
 370+       0.0114    |    370+       0.0004

Morning After Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Sat. Sep. 27, after last night's debate. A further improvement for Obama, up to ~79% to win outright with 270+ votes, plus about a 0.8% chance of a tie at 269 that he would likely win in the House of Reps.

Intrade's "presidential election winner" contracts, by contrast, give Obama a 56.7% chance of winning, and McCain a 42.1% chance of winning.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 210+       0.9891    |    210+       0.8375
 215+       0.9854    |    215+       0.7951
 220+       0.9806    |    220+       0.7473
 225+       0.9745    |    225+       0.6946
 230+       0.9667    |    230+       0.6380
 235+       0.9569    |    235+       0.5787
 240+       0.9447    |    240+       0.5181
 245+       0.9295    |    245+       0.4577
 250+       0.9108    |    250+       0.3989
 255+       0.8880    |    255+       0.3429
 260+       0.8606    |    260+       0.2910
 265+       0.8282    |    265+       0.2437
 266+       0.8211    |    266+       0.2348
 267+       0.8138    |    267+       0.2262
 268+       0.8062    |    268+       0.2178
 269+       0.7984    |    269+       0.2096
 270+       0.7904    |    270+       0.2016
 271+       0.7822    |    271+       0.1938
 272+       0.7738    |    272+       0.1862
 273+       0.7652    |    273+       0.1789
 274+       0.7563    |    274+       0.1718
 275+       0.7472    |    275+       0.1649
 280+       0.6990    |    280+       0.1335
 285+       0.6461    |    285+       0.1071
 290+       0.5895    |    290+       0.0851
 295+       0.5303    |    295+       0.0672
 300+       0.4698    |    300+       0.0526
 305+       0.4093    |    305+       0.0409
 310+       0.3504    |    310+       0.0316
 315+       0.2945    |    315+       0.0242
 320+       0.2427    |    320+       0.0184
 325+       0.1959    |    325+       0.0138
 330+       0.1547    |    330+       0.0102
 335+       0.1196    |    335+       0.0075
 340+       0.0902    |    340+       0.0054
 345+       0.0665    |    345+       0.0038
 350+       0.0478    |    350+       0.0027
 355+       0.0336    |    355+       0.0018
 360+       0.0231    |    360+       0.0012
 365+       0.0155    |    365+       0.0008
 370+       0.0102    |    370+       0.0005

Post-debate state-by-state odds

Immediately after the debate, here are the state-by-state simulation odds. A small improvement for Obama, despite the small improvement for McCain in the overall "McCain to win" contract.

As always, each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 205+       0.9888    |    205+       0.8758
 210+       0.9849    |    210+       0.8411
 215+       0.9800    |    215+       0.8009
 220+       0.9739    |    220+       0.7554
 225+       0.9663    |    225+       0.7053
 230+       0.9568    |    230+       0.6513
 235+       0.9453    |    235+       0.5945
 240+       0.9312    |    240+       0.5363
 245+       0.9141    |    245+       0.4779
 250+       0.8935    |    250+       0.4206
 255+       0.8689    |    255+       0.3657
 260+       0.8399    |    260+       0.3143
 265+       0.8062    |    265+       0.2670
 266+       0.7988    |    266+       0.2581
 267+       0.7913    |    267+       0.2493
 268+       0.7836    |    268+       0.2408
 269+       0.7756    |    269+       0.2325
 270+       0.7675    |    270+       0.2244
 271+       0.7592    |    271+       0.2164
 272+       0.7507    |    272+       0.2087
 273+       0.7419    |    273+       0.2012
 274+       0.7330    |    274+       0.1938
 275+       0.7239    |    275+       0.1867
 280+       0.6757    |    280+       0.1539
 285+       0.6235    |    285+       0.1259
 290+       0.5680    |    290+       0.1021
 295+       0.5105    |    295+       0.0823
 300+       0.4520    |    300+       0.0658
 305+       0.3940    |    305+       0.0522
 310+       0.3377    |    310+       0.0411
 315+       0.2844    |    315+       0.0321
 320+       0.2351    |    320+       0.0248
 325+       0.1906    |    325+       0.0189
 330+       0.1515    |    330+       0.0143
 335+       0.1179    |    335+       0.0106
 340+       0.0898    |    340+       0.0077
 345+       0.0669    |    345+       0.0056
 350+       0.0488    |    350+       0.0039
 355+       0.0348    |    355+       0.0027
 360+       0.0242    |    360+       0.0019
 365+       0.0165    |    365+       0.0012
 370+       0.0111    |    370+       0.0008

Friday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Fri. Sep. 26. Not much change from yesterday afternoon, about a 2% drop for Obama.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 200+       0.9895    |    200+       0.9283
 205+       0.9858    |    205+       0.9042
 210+       0.9811    |    210+       0.8748
 215+       0.9752    |    215+       0.8398
 220+       0.9679    |    220+       0.7992
 225+       0.9588    |    225+       0.7533
 230+       0.9477    |    230+       0.7025
 235+       0.9341    |    235+       0.6478
 240+       0.9175    |    240+       0.5903
 245+       0.8976    |    245+       0.5313
 250+       0.8737    |    250+       0.4722
 255+       0.8454    |    255+       0.4144
 260+       0.8122    |    260+       0.3592
 265+       0.7740    |    265+       0.3075
 266+       0.7657    |    266+       0.2977
 267+       0.7573    |    267+       0.2880
 268+       0.7486    |    268+       0.2786
 269+       0.7397    |    269+       0.2694
 270+       0.7306    |    270+       0.2603
 271+       0.7214    |    271+       0.2514
 272+       0.7120    |    272+       0.2427
 273+       0.7023    |    273+       0.2343
 274+       0.6925    |    274+       0.2260
 275+       0.6825    |    275+       0.2180
 280+       0.6301    |    280+       0.1808
 285+       0.5742    |    285+       0.1486
 290+       0.5160    |    290+       0.1212
 295+       0.4568    |    295+       0.0981
 300+       0.3981    |    300+       0.0789
 305+       0.3410    |    305+       0.0630
 310+       0.2870    |    310+       0.0499
 315+       0.2372    |    315+       0.0392
 320+       0.1922    |    320+       0.0305
 325+       0.1527    |    325+       0.0235
 330+       0.1188    |    330+       0.0178
 335+       0.0906    |    335+       0.0134
 340+       0.0675    |    340+       0.0099
 345+       0.0492    |    345+       0.0072
 350+       0.0351    |    350+       0.0051
 355+       0.0245    |    355+       0.0036
 360+       0.0167    |    360+       0.0025
 365+       0.0112    |    365+       0.0017

Obama has 3:1 chance of winning

According to this afternoon's Intrade state-by-state numbers (again, under certain assumptions), Obama is currently the favorite to win the 270+ electoral votes he needs to win the White House. His ~3:1 odds this afternoon are ~5% better than they were this morning, and ~10% better than yesterday morning.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 205+       0.9885    |    205+       0.8946
 210+       0.9846    |    210+       0.8631
 215+       0.9796    |    215+       0.8258
 220+       0.9733    |    220+       0.7829
 225+       0.9653    |    225+       0.7349
 230+       0.9555    |    230+       0.6822
 235+       0.9433    |    235+       0.6259
 240+       0.9283    |    240+       0.5673
 245+       0.9099    |    245+       0.5076
 250+       0.8877    |    250+       0.4484
 255+       0.8611    |    255+       0.3909
 260+       0.8296    |    260+       0.3364
 265+       0.7930    |    265+       0.2858
 266+       0.7851    |    266+       0.2763
 267+       0.7770    |    267+       0.2669
 268+       0.7686    |    268+       0.2578
 269+       0.7600    |    269+       0.2488
 270+       0.7512    |    270+       0.2400
 271+       0.7422    |    271+       0.2314
 272+       0.7331    |    272+       0.2230
 273+       0.7237    |    273+       0.2149
 274+       0.7142    |    274+       0.2070
 275+       0.7044    |    275+       0.1992
 280+       0.6530    |    280+       0.1637
 285+       0.5978    |    285+       0.1333
 290+       0.5399    |    290+       0.1075
 295+       0.4804    |    295+       0.0861
 300+       0.4209    |    300+       0.0685
 305+       0.3626    |    305+       0.0541
 310+       0.3070    |    310+       0.0424
 315+       0.2552    |    315+       0.0329
 320+       0.2081    |    320+       0.0254
 325+       0.1663    |    325+       0.0193
 330+       0.1301    |    330+       0.0146
 335+       0.0997    |    335+       0.0108
 340+       0.0747    |    340+       0.0080
 345+       0.0548    |    345+       0.0057
 350+       0.0393    |    350+       0.0041
 355+       0.0275    |    355+       0.0029
 360+       0.0189    |    360+       0.0020
 365+       0.0127    |    365+       0.0013

Thursday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Sep. 25. These numbers show about a +5% bump for Obama, significantly more than the global "Obama next president" contract has gone up on Intrade.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 200+       0.9882    |    200+       0.9430
 205+       0.9842    |    205+       0.9228
 210+       0.9790    |    210+       0.8976
 215+       0.9726    |    215+       0.8671
 220+       0.9645    |    220+       0.8309
 225+       0.9544    |    225+       0.7891
 230+       0.9420    |    230+       0.7420
 235+       0.9266    |    235+       0.6901
 240+       0.9078    |    240+       0.6345
 245+       0.8851    |    245+       0.5762
 250+       0.8578    |    250+       0.5166
 255+       0.8256    |    255+       0.4570
 260+       0.7881    |    260+       0.3990
 265+       0.7454    |    265+       0.3438
 266+       0.7363    |    266+       0.3331
 267+       0.7270    |    267+       0.3227
 268+       0.7174    |    268+       0.3124
 269+       0.7076    |    269+       0.3023
 270+       0.6977    |    270+       0.2924
 271+       0.6876    |    271+       0.2826
 272+       0.6773    |    272+       0.2730
 273+       0.6669    |    273+       0.2637
 274+       0.6562    |    274+       0.2546
 275+       0.6454    |    275+       0.2456
 280+       0.5896    |    280+       0.2039
 285+       0.5311    |    285+       0.1676
 290+       0.4715    |    290+       0.1364
 295+       0.4120    |    295+       0.1101
 300+       0.3542    |    300+       0.0881
 305+       0.2992    |    305+       0.0701
 310+       0.2482    |    310+       0.0553
 315+       0.2021    |    315+       0.0434
 320+       0.1614    |    320+       0.0337
 325+       0.1264    |    325+       0.0260
 330+       0.0969    |    330+       0.0198
 335+       0.0728    |    335+       0.0150
 340+       0.0535    |    340+       0.0111
 345+       0.0385    |    345+       0.0082
 350+       0.0271    |    350+       0.0059
 355+       0.0187    |    355+       0.0042
 360+       0.0126    |    360+       0.0029

Wednesday Morning's Odds

Edit: I accidentally posted the result of a new, faster, more accurate script that unfortunately forgot to calculate the probs for McCain. Oops.

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Sep. 24.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright. But a tie at 269 isn't impossible...

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 195+       0.9870    |    195+       0.9689
 200+       0.9826    |    200+       0.9564
 205+       0.9770    |    205+       0.9400
 210+       0.9701    |    210+       0.9192
 215+       0.9616    |    215+       0.8935
 220+       0.9511    |    220+       0.8625
 225+       0.9383    |    225+       0.8259
 230+       0.9227    |    230+       0.7838
 235+       0.9039    |    235+       0.7365
 240+       0.8813    |    240+       0.6848
 245+       0.8544    |    245+       0.6294
 250+       0.8228    |    250+       0.5716
 255+       0.7862    |    255+       0.5127
 260+       0.7444    |    260+       0.4540
 265+       0.6977    |    265+       0.3970
 266+       0.6879    |    266+       0.3859
 267+       0.6778    |    267+       0.3749
 268+       0.6676    |    268+       0.3641
 269+       0.6572    |    269+       0.3534
 270+       0.6466    |    270+       0.3428
 271+       0.6359    |    271+       0.3324
 272+       0.6251    |    272+       0.3222
 273+       0.6141    |    273+       0.3121
 274+       0.6030    |    274+       0.3023
 275+       0.5917    |    275+       0.2925
 280+       0.5343    |    280+       0.2468
 285+       0.4755    |    285+       0.2061
 290+       0.4167    |    290+       0.1705
 295+       0.3593    |    295+       0.1398
 300+       0.3046    |    300+       0.1138
 305+       0.2536    |    305+       0.0920
 310+       0.2074    |    310+       0.0739
 315+       0.1664    |    315+       0.0589
 320+       0.1309    |    320+       0.0466
 325+       0.1009    |    325+       0.0366
 330+       0.0762    |    330+       0.0284
 335+       0.0564    |    335+       0.0218
 340+       0.0408    |    340+       0.0165
 345+       0.0290    |    345+       0.0123
 350+       0.0201    |    350+       0.0090
 355+       0.0137    |    355+       0.0065

Tuesday Afternoon's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Sep. 23, as of around 2:40 pm.

Remember, each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 195+       0.9871    |    195+       0.9680
 200+       0.9829    |    200+       0.9550
 205+       0.9774    |    205+       0.9384
 210+       0.9706    |    210+       0.9175
 215+       0.9620    |    215+       0.8914
 220+       0.9518    |    220+       0.8605
 225+       0.9391    |    225+       0.8238
 230+       0.9237    |    230+       0.7814
 235+       0.9051    |    235+       0.7339
 240+       0.8826    |    240+       0.6821
 245+       0.8561    |    245+       0.6267
 250+       0.8245    |    250+       0.5688
 255+       0.7881    |    255+       0.5100
 260+       0.7468    |    260+       0.4512
 265+       0.7006    |    265+       0.3940
 266+       0.6907    |    266+       0.3830
 267+       0.6807    |    267+       0.3720
 268+       0.6705    |    268+       0.3611
 269+       0.6601    |    269+       0.3505
 270+       0.6495    |    270+       0.3399
 271+       0.6389    |    271+       0.3295
 272+       0.6280    |    272+       0.3193
 273+       0.6170    |    273+       0.3093
 274+       0.6060    |    274+       0.2994
 275+       0.5946    |    275+       0.2899
 280+       0.5372    |    280+       0.2445
 285+       0.4781    |    285+       0.2042
 290+       0.4192    |    290+       0.1688
 295+       0.3619    |    295+       0.1384
 300+       0.3070    |    300+       0.1126
 305+       0.2563    |    305+       0.0909
 310+       0.2097    |    310+       0.0730
 315+       0.1685    |    315+       0.0582
 320+       0.1328    |    320+       0.0460
 325+       0.1028    |    325+       0.0362
 330+       0.0779    |    330+       0.0279
 335+       0.0579    |    335+       0.0214
 340+       0.0420    |    340+       0.0163
 345+       0.0298    |    345+       0.0121
 350+       0.0207    |    350+       0.0089
 355+       0.0141    |    355+       0.0064

Tuesday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Sep. 23.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright. But a tie at 269 isn't impossible...

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 190+       0.9897    |    190+       0.9799
 195+       0.9862    |    195+       0.9710
 200+       0.9816    |    200+       0.9590
 205+       0.9758    |    205+       0.9433
 210+       0.9687    |    210+       0.9235
 215+       0.9599    |    215+       0.8988
 220+       0.9490    |    220+       0.8687
 225+       0.9357    |    225+       0.8334
 230+       0.9195    |    230+       0.7922
 235+       0.8999    |    235+       0.7457
 240+       0.8766    |    240+       0.6953
 245+       0.8487    |    245+       0.6403
 250+       0.8162    |    250+       0.5829
 255+       0.7783    |    255+       0.5239
 260+       0.7354    |    260+       0.4654
 265+       0.6879    |    265+       0.4079
 266+       0.6779    |    266+       0.3966
 267+       0.6678    |    267+       0.3854
 268+       0.6575    |    268+       0.3745
 269+       0.6471    |    269+       0.3637
 270+       0.6363    |    270+       0.3529
 271+       0.6255    |    271+       0.3425
 272+       0.6146    |    272+       0.3322
 273+       0.6034    |    273+       0.3221
 274+       0.5921    |    274+       0.3121
 275+       0.5807    |    275+       0.3023
 280+       0.5231    |    280+       0.2557
 285+       0.4642    |    285+       0.2138
 290+       0.4055    |    290+       0.1770
 295+       0.3484    |    295+       0.1453
 300+       0.2943    |    300+       0.1185
 305+       0.2447    |    305+       0.0959
 310+       0.1991    |    310+       0.0771
 315+       0.1591    |    315+       0.0614
 320+       0.1249    |    320+       0.0487
 325+       0.0958    |    325+       0.0382
 330+       0.0721    |    330+       0.0298
 335+       0.0533    |    335+       0.0229
 340+       0.0383    |    340+       0.0174
 345+       0.0270    |    345+       0.0131
 350+       0.0187    |    350+       0.0097
 355+       0.0126    |    355+       0.0070

Monday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Mon. Sep. 22.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright. But a tie at 269 isn't impossible...

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 190+       0.9887    |    190+       0.9819
 195+       0.9849    |    195+       0.9739
 200+       0.9800    |    200+       0.9629
 205+       0.9737    |    205+       0.9485
 210+       0.9658    |    210+       0.9301
 215+       0.9562    |    215+       0.9070
 220+       0.9445    |    220+       0.8792
 225+       0.9303    |    225+       0.8456
 230+       0.9131    |    230+       0.8064
 235+       0.8924    |    235+       0.7617
 240+       0.8676    |    240+       0.7123
 245+       0.8381    |    245+       0.6584
 250+       0.8036    |    250+       0.6023
 255+       0.7644    |    255+       0.5443
 260+       0.7201    |    260+       0.4856
 265+       0.6705    |    265+       0.4278
 266+       0.6603    |    266+       0.4165
 267+       0.6497    |    267+       0.4052
 268+       0.6391    |    268+       0.3940
 269+       0.6281    |    269+       0.3829
 270+       0.6171    |    270+       0.3719
 271+       0.6060    |    271+       0.3609
 272+       0.5948    |    272+       0.3503
 273+       0.5835    |    273+       0.3397
 274+       0.5722    |    274+       0.3295
 275+       0.5607    |    275+       0.3191
 280+       0.5029    |    280+       0.2708
 285+       0.4441    |    285+       0.2272
 290+       0.3864    |    290+       0.1890
 295+       0.3306    |    295+       0.1557
 300+       0.2776    |    300+       0.1271
 305+       0.2289    |    305+       0.1031
 310+       0.1853    |    310+       0.0831
 315+       0.1472    |    315+       0.0666
 320+       0.1149    |    320+       0.0530
 325+       0.0880    |    325+       0.0417
 330+       0.0659    |    330+       0.0325
 335+       0.0483    |    335+       0.0250
 340+       0.0346    |    340+       0.0190
 345+       0.0243    |    345+       0.0143
 350+       0.0167    |    350+       0.0106
 355+       0.0112    |    355+       0.0077

Sunday's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Sep. 21.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright. But a tie at 269 isn't impossible...

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 190+       0.9881    |    190+       0.9816
 195+       0.9839    |    195+       0.9733
 200+       0.9788    |    200+       0.9624
 205+       0.9723    |    205+       0.9478
 210+       0.9644    |    210+       0.9292
 215+       0.9547    |    215+       0.9060
 220+       0.9428    |    220+       0.8774
 225+       0.9285    |    225+       0.8433
 230+       0.9111    |    230+       0.8044
 235+       0.8904    |    235+       0.7601
 240+       0.8657    |    240+       0.7103
 245+       0.8364    |    245+       0.6570
 250+       0.8025    |    250+       0.6003
 255+       0.7635    |    255+       0.5420
 260+       0.7197    |    260+       0.4834
 265+       0.6713    |    265+       0.4259
 266+       0.6609    |    266+       0.4146
 267+       0.6507    |    267+       0.4034
 268+       0.6403    |    268+       0.3923
 269+       0.6294    |    269+       0.3814
 270+       0.6186    |    270+       0.3706
 271+       0.6077    |    271+       0.3597
 272+       0.5966    |    272+       0.3493
 273+       0.5854    |    273+       0.3391
 274+       0.5741    |    274+       0.3287
 275+       0.5627    |    275+       0.3188
 280+       0.5050    |    280+       0.2711
 285+       0.4462    |    285+       0.2283
 290+       0.3882    |    290+       0.1904
 295+       0.3321    |    295+       0.1573
 300+       0.2794    |    300+       0.1290
 305+       0.2305    |    305+       0.1051
 310+       0.1874    |    310+       0.0851
 315+       0.1494    |    315+       0.0684
 320+       0.1164    |    320+       0.0547
 325+       0.0890    |    325+       0.0432
 330+       0.0667    |    330+       0.0339
 335+       0.0490    |    335+       0.0263
 340+       0.0352    |    340+       0.0201
 345+       0.0247    |    345+       0.0152
 350+       0.0171    |    350+       0.0113
 355+       0.0116    |    355+       0.0081

Simulating the 2008 Presidential Election Using Intrade Data

Hello!

This is a blog I set up so that other people could see the results of my procrastinatory activities, and have their time likewise wasted.

The basic concept is this: I download the current probabilities that each state in the U.S. will go for Obama or McCain from Intrade. (For those not familiar with Intrade, Slate has an introduction.) Some scripts I wrote run many many thousands of virtual elections based on those probabilities, counting how many electoral votes each candidate gets in each scenario. Then I publish the results here, telling you how likely it is that Obama will get 269+ electoral votes vs. 270+ electoral votes, etc.

The results tend to differ significantly from the overall "McCain next president" or "Democrat next president" contracts. Feel free to speculate on why that is.

They also differ from what Intrade has recently started posting, which is the electoral outcome of the most likely scenario only. That is, they're only publishing the mode of the distribution over electoral votes, which to me is less interesting than some other statistics. I give you the whole CDF.

The more statistically savvy among you have probably noticed two major problems with this approach:
1. I'm assuming that the outcome in each state is independent. Under this assumption, McCain could (with very small probability) lose Pennsylvania and win New York. In reality, McCain winning New York would more likely be the result of some hyper-catastrophic event for the Democratic party that would result in a universal landslide for McCain. If anyone has some good ideas about how to model the correlations between states, I'd be interested to hear them, but I'm also likely to not do anything with them. There's other stuff I should probably be doing.
2. I'm assuming that the Intrade state-by-state data accurately integrate all available information about the likely outcomes of each state's contest. They might. They might not. The purpose of this blog is not to argue the accuracy of predictive markets. It's to make it easier to waste time obsessing over politics.