Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright. But a tie at 269 isn't impossible...
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
190+ 0.9897 | 190+ 0.9799
195+ 0.9862 | 195+ 0.9710
200+ 0.9816 | 200+ 0.9590
205+ 0.9758 | 205+ 0.9433
210+ 0.9687 | 210+ 0.9235
215+ 0.9599 | 215+ 0.8988
220+ 0.9490 | 220+ 0.8687
225+ 0.9357 | 225+ 0.8334
230+ 0.9195 | 230+ 0.7922
235+ 0.8999 | 235+ 0.7457
240+ 0.8766 | 240+ 0.6953
245+ 0.8487 | 245+ 0.6403
250+ 0.8162 | 250+ 0.5829
255+ 0.7783 | 255+ 0.5239
260+ 0.7354 | 260+ 0.4654
265+ 0.6879 | 265+ 0.4079
266+ 0.6779 | 266+ 0.3966
267+ 0.6678 | 267+ 0.3854
268+ 0.6575 | 268+ 0.3745
269+ 0.6471 | 269+ 0.3637
270+ 0.6363 | 270+ 0.3529
271+ 0.6255 | 271+ 0.3425
272+ 0.6146 | 272+ 0.3322
273+ 0.6034 | 273+ 0.3221
274+ 0.5921 | 274+ 0.3121
275+ 0.5807 | 275+ 0.3023
280+ 0.5231 | 280+ 0.2557
285+ 0.4642 | 285+ 0.2138
290+ 0.4055 | 290+ 0.1770
295+ 0.3484 | 295+ 0.1453
300+ 0.2943 | 300+ 0.1185
305+ 0.2447 | 305+ 0.0959
310+ 0.1991 | 310+ 0.0771
315+ 0.1591 | 315+ 0.0614
320+ 0.1249 | 320+ 0.0487
325+ 0.0958 | 325+ 0.0382
330+ 0.0721 | 330+ 0.0298
335+ 0.0533 | 335+ 0.0229
340+ 0.0383 | 340+ 0.0174
345+ 0.0270 | 345+ 0.0131
350+ 0.0187 | 350+ 0.0097
355+ 0.0126 | 355+ 0.0070
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