Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
215+ 0.9881 | 215+ 0.7879
220+ 0.9840 | 220+ 0.7386
225+ 0.9787 | 225+ 0.6844
230+ 0.9719 | 230+ 0.6263
235+ 0.9633 | 235+ 0.5656
240+ 0.9523 | 240+ 0.5038
245+ 0.9385 | 245+ 0.4425
250+ 0.9212 | 250+ 0.3830
255+ 0.8998 | 255+ 0.3267
260+ 0.8737 | 260+ 0.2748
265+ 0.8424 | 265+ 0.2279
266+ 0.8355 | 266+ 0.2192
267+ 0.8284 | 267+ 0.2107
268+ 0.8210 | 268+ 0.2025
269+ 0.8134 | 269+ 0.1944
270+ 0.8056 | 270+ 0.1866
271+ 0.7975 | 271+ 0.1790
272+ 0.7893 | 272+ 0.1716
273+ 0.7808 | 273+ 0.1645
274+ 0.7721 | 274+ 0.1576
275+ 0.7631 | 275+ 0.1509
280+ 0.7152 | 280+ 0.1207
285+ 0.6623 | 285+ 0.0956
290+ 0.6053 | 290+ 0.0750
295+ 0.5454 | 295+ 0.0585
300+ 0.4838 | 300+ 0.0453
305+ 0.4221 | 305+ 0.0348
310+ 0.3619 | 310+ 0.0266
315+ 0.3045 | 315+ 0.0201
320+ 0.2511 | 320+ 0.0151
325+ 0.2029 | 325+ 0.0112
330+ 0.1603 | 330+ 0.0083
335+ 0.1240 | 335+ 0.0060
340+ 0.0936 | 340+ 0.0043
345+ 0.0690 | 345+ 0.0030
350+ 0.0496 | 350+ 0.0020
355+ 0.0349 | 355+ 0.0014
360+ 0.0240 | 360+ 0.0009
365+ 0.0161 | 365+ 0.0006
370+ 0.0106 | 370+ 0.0004
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