Friday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Fri. Sep. 26. Not much change from yesterday afternoon, about a 2% drop for Obama.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 200+       0.9895    |    200+       0.9283
 205+       0.9858    |    205+       0.9042
 210+       0.9811    |    210+       0.8748
 215+       0.9752    |    215+       0.8398
 220+       0.9679    |    220+       0.7992
 225+       0.9588    |    225+       0.7533
 230+       0.9477    |    230+       0.7025
 235+       0.9341    |    235+       0.6478
 240+       0.9175    |    240+       0.5903
 245+       0.8976    |    245+       0.5313
 250+       0.8737    |    250+       0.4722
 255+       0.8454    |    255+       0.4144
 260+       0.8122    |    260+       0.3592
 265+       0.7740    |    265+       0.3075
 266+       0.7657    |    266+       0.2977
 267+       0.7573    |    267+       0.2880
 268+       0.7486    |    268+       0.2786
 269+       0.7397    |    269+       0.2694
 270+       0.7306    |    270+       0.2603
 271+       0.7214    |    271+       0.2514
 272+       0.7120    |    272+       0.2427
 273+       0.7023    |    273+       0.2343
 274+       0.6925    |    274+       0.2260
 275+       0.6825    |    275+       0.2180
 280+       0.6301    |    280+       0.1808
 285+       0.5742    |    285+       0.1486
 290+       0.5160    |    290+       0.1212
 295+       0.4568    |    295+       0.0981
 300+       0.3981    |    300+       0.0789
 305+       0.3410    |    305+       0.0630
 310+       0.2870    |    310+       0.0499
 315+       0.2372    |    315+       0.0392
 320+       0.1922    |    320+       0.0305
 325+       0.1527    |    325+       0.0235
 330+       0.1188    |    330+       0.0178
 335+       0.0906    |    335+       0.0134
 340+       0.0675    |    340+       0.0099
 345+       0.0492    |    345+       0.0072
 350+       0.0351    |    350+       0.0051
 355+       0.0245    |    355+       0.0036
 360+       0.0167    |    360+       0.0025
 365+       0.0112    |    365+       0.0017