As always, each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
205+ 0.9888 | 205+ 0.8758
210+ 0.9849 | 210+ 0.8411
215+ 0.9800 | 215+ 0.8009
220+ 0.9739 | 220+ 0.7554
225+ 0.9663 | 225+ 0.7053
230+ 0.9568 | 230+ 0.6513
235+ 0.9453 | 235+ 0.5945
240+ 0.9312 | 240+ 0.5363
245+ 0.9141 | 245+ 0.4779
250+ 0.8935 | 250+ 0.4206
255+ 0.8689 | 255+ 0.3657
260+ 0.8399 | 260+ 0.3143
265+ 0.8062 | 265+ 0.2670
266+ 0.7988 | 266+ 0.2581
267+ 0.7913 | 267+ 0.2493
268+ 0.7836 | 268+ 0.2408
269+ 0.7756 | 269+ 0.2325
270+ 0.7675 | 270+ 0.2244
271+ 0.7592 | 271+ 0.2164
272+ 0.7507 | 272+ 0.2087
273+ 0.7419 | 273+ 0.2012
274+ 0.7330 | 274+ 0.1938
275+ 0.7239 | 275+ 0.1867
280+ 0.6757 | 280+ 0.1539
285+ 0.6235 | 285+ 0.1259
290+ 0.5680 | 290+ 0.1021
295+ 0.5105 | 295+ 0.0823
300+ 0.4520 | 300+ 0.0658
305+ 0.3940 | 305+ 0.0522
310+ 0.3377 | 310+ 0.0411
315+ 0.2844 | 315+ 0.0321
320+ 0.2351 | 320+ 0.0248
325+ 0.1906 | 325+ 0.0189
330+ 0.1515 | 330+ 0.0143
335+ 0.1179 | 335+ 0.0106
340+ 0.0898 | 340+ 0.0077
345+ 0.0669 | 345+ 0.0056
350+ 0.0488 | 350+ 0.0039
355+ 0.0348 | 355+ 0.0027
360+ 0.0242 | 360+ 0.0019
365+ 0.0165 | 365+ 0.0012
370+ 0.0111 | 370+ 0.0008
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