Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright. But a tie at 269 isn't impossible...
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
190+ 0.9881 | 190+ 0.9816
195+ 0.9839 | 195+ 0.9733
200+ 0.9788 | 200+ 0.9624
205+ 0.9723 | 205+ 0.9478
210+ 0.9644 | 210+ 0.9292
215+ 0.9547 | 215+ 0.9060
220+ 0.9428 | 220+ 0.8774
225+ 0.9285 | 225+ 0.8433
230+ 0.9111 | 230+ 0.8044
235+ 0.8904 | 235+ 0.7601
240+ 0.8657 | 240+ 0.7103
245+ 0.8364 | 245+ 0.6570
250+ 0.8025 | 250+ 0.6003
255+ 0.7635 | 255+ 0.5420
260+ 0.7197 | 260+ 0.4834
265+ 0.6713 | 265+ 0.4259
266+ 0.6609 | 266+ 0.4146
267+ 0.6507 | 267+ 0.4034
268+ 0.6403 | 268+ 0.3923
269+ 0.6294 | 269+ 0.3814
270+ 0.6186 | 270+ 0.3706
271+ 0.6077 | 271+ 0.3597
272+ 0.5966 | 272+ 0.3493
273+ 0.5854 | 273+ 0.3391
274+ 0.5741 | 274+ 0.3287
275+ 0.5627 | 275+ 0.3188
280+ 0.5050 | 280+ 0.2711
285+ 0.4462 | 285+ 0.2283
290+ 0.3882 | 290+ 0.1904
295+ 0.3321 | 295+ 0.1573
300+ 0.2794 | 300+ 0.1290
305+ 0.2305 | 305+ 0.1051
310+ 0.1874 | 310+ 0.0851
315+ 0.1494 | 315+ 0.0684
320+ 0.1164 | 320+ 0.0547
325+ 0.0890 | 325+ 0.0432
330+ 0.0667 | 330+ 0.0339
335+ 0.0490 | 335+ 0.0263
340+ 0.0352 | 340+ 0.0201
345+ 0.0247 | 345+ 0.0152
350+ 0.0171 | 350+ 0.0113
355+ 0.0116 | 355+ 0.0081
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