Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Sep. 24.
Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright. But a tie at 269 isn't impossible...
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
195+ 0.9870 | 195+ 0.9689
200+ 0.9826 | 200+ 0.9564
205+ 0.9770 | 205+ 0.9400
210+ 0.9701 | 210+ 0.9192
215+ 0.9616 | 215+ 0.8935
220+ 0.9511 | 220+ 0.8625
225+ 0.9383 | 225+ 0.8259
230+ 0.9227 | 230+ 0.7838
235+ 0.9039 | 235+ 0.7365
240+ 0.8813 | 240+ 0.6848
245+ 0.8544 | 245+ 0.6294
250+ 0.8228 | 250+ 0.5716
255+ 0.7862 | 255+ 0.5127
260+ 0.7444 | 260+ 0.4540
265+ 0.6977 | 265+ 0.3970
266+ 0.6879 | 266+ 0.3859
267+ 0.6778 | 267+ 0.3749
268+ 0.6676 | 268+ 0.3641
269+ 0.6572 | 269+ 0.3534
270+ 0.6466 | 270+ 0.3428
271+ 0.6359 | 271+ 0.3324
272+ 0.6251 | 272+ 0.3222
273+ 0.6141 | 273+ 0.3121
274+ 0.6030 | 274+ 0.3023
275+ 0.5917 | 275+ 0.2925
280+ 0.5343 | 280+ 0.2468
285+ 0.4755 | 285+ 0.2061
290+ 0.4167 | 290+ 0.1705
295+ 0.3593 | 295+ 0.1398
300+ 0.3046 | 300+ 0.1138
305+ 0.2536 | 305+ 0.0920
310+ 0.2074 | 310+ 0.0739
315+ 0.1664 | 315+ 0.0589
320+ 0.1309 | 320+ 0.0466
325+ 0.1009 | 325+ 0.0366
330+ 0.0762 | 330+ 0.0284
335+ 0.0564 | 335+ 0.0218
340+ 0.0408 | 340+ 0.0165
345+ 0.0290 | 345+ 0.0123
350+ 0.0201 | 350+ 0.0090
355+ 0.0137 | 355+ 0.0065
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