Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
215+ 0.9896 | 215+ 0.7704
220+ 0.9860 | 220+ 0.7185
225+ 0.9813 | 225+ 0.6620
230+ 0.9752 | 230+ 0.6021
235+ 0.9675 | 235+ 0.5402
240+ 0.9576 | 240+ 0.4780
245+ 0.9452 | 245+ 0.4169
250+ 0.9295 | 250+ 0.3583
255+ 0.9099 | 255+ 0.3036
260+ 0.8860 | 260+ 0.2537
265+ 0.8570 | 265+ 0.2090
266+ 0.8506 | 266+ 0.2008
267+ 0.8440 | 267+ 0.1927
268+ 0.8371 | 268+ 0.1850
269+ 0.8299 | 269+ 0.1774
270+ 0.8226 | 270+ 0.1701
271+ 0.8150 | 271+ 0.1629
272+ 0.8073 | 272+ 0.1560
273+ 0.7992 | 273+ 0.1494
274+ 0.7910 | 274+ 0.1430
275+ 0.7824 | 275+ 0.1368
280+ 0.7368 | 280+ 0.1088
285+ 0.6857 | 285+ 0.0858
290+ 0.6302 | 290+ 0.0671
295+ 0.5710 | 295+ 0.0521
300+ 0.5096 | 300+ 0.0402
305+ 0.4473 | 305+ 0.0308
310+ 0.3857 | 310+ 0.0234
315+ 0.3264 | 315+ 0.0177
320+ 0.2707 | 320+ 0.0132
325+ 0.2198 | 325+ 0.0098
330+ 0.1745 | 330+ 0.0071
335+ 0.1354 | 335+ 0.0051
340+ 0.1026 | 340+ 0.0036
345+ 0.0758 | 345+ 0.0025
350+ 0.0547 | 350+ 0.0017
355+ 0.0385 | 355+ 0.0011
360+ 0.0265 | 360+ 0.0007
365+ 0.0178 | 365+ 0.0005
370+ 0.0118 | 370+ 0.0003
The overall Intrade dem v rep president contracts, by contrast, give Obama about a 60% chance of winning.
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