Tuesday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Sep. 30. McCain's a couple of points higher than last night, which is interesting since the overall "McCain to win" contract is down a little since yesterday. Still, it's hard to imagine that Obama's numbers could have gotten much higher than they were, at 85%+.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 220+       0.9874    |    220+       0.7118
 225+       0.9831    |    225+       0.6545
 230+       0.9775    |    230+       0.5940
 235+       0.9703    |    235+       0.5316
 240+       0.9610    |    240+       0.4690
 245+       0.9492    |    245+       0.4078
 250+       0.9342    |    250+       0.3493
 255+       0.9154    |    255+       0.2948
 260+       0.8921    |    260+       0.2452
 265+       0.8638    |    265+       0.2011
 266+       0.8575    |    266+       0.1929
 267+       0.8510    |    267+       0.1850
 268+       0.8443    |    268+       0.1774
 269+       0.8373    |    269+       0.1700
 270+       0.8300    |    270+       0.1627
 271+       0.8226    |    271+       0.1557
 272+       0.8150    |    272+       0.1490
 273+       0.8071    |    273+       0.1425
 274+       0.7989    |    274+       0.1362
 275+       0.7905    |    275+       0.1301
 280+       0.7453    |    280+       0.1029
 285+       0.6946    |    285+       0.0806
 290+       0.6392    |    290+       0.0626
 295+       0.5801    |    295+       0.0482
 300+       0.5186    |    300+       0.0369
 305+       0.4558    |    305+       0.0281
 310+       0.3937    |    310+       0.0212
 315+       0.3338    |    315+       0.0159
 320+       0.2773    |    320+       0.0118
 325+       0.2255    |    325+       0.0087
 330+       0.1794    |    330+       0.0063
 335+       0.1395    |    335+       0.0045
 340+       0.1058    |    340+       0.0032
 345+       0.0783    |    345+       0.0022
 350+       0.0566    |    350+       0.0015
 355+       0.0399    |    355+       0.0010
 360+       0.0275    |    360+       0.0006
 365+       0.0185    |    365+       0.0004
 370+       0.0122    |    370+       0.0003