Remember, each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
195+ 0.9871 | 195+ 0.9680
200+ 0.9829 | 200+ 0.9550
205+ 0.9774 | 205+ 0.9384
210+ 0.9706 | 210+ 0.9175
215+ 0.9620 | 215+ 0.8914
220+ 0.9518 | 220+ 0.8605
225+ 0.9391 | 225+ 0.8238
230+ 0.9237 | 230+ 0.7814
235+ 0.9051 | 235+ 0.7339
240+ 0.8826 | 240+ 0.6821
245+ 0.8561 | 245+ 0.6267
250+ 0.8245 | 250+ 0.5688
255+ 0.7881 | 255+ 0.5100
260+ 0.7468 | 260+ 0.4512
265+ 0.7006 | 265+ 0.3940
266+ 0.6907 | 266+ 0.3830
267+ 0.6807 | 267+ 0.3720
268+ 0.6705 | 268+ 0.3611
269+ 0.6601 | 269+ 0.3505
270+ 0.6495 | 270+ 0.3399
271+ 0.6389 | 271+ 0.3295
272+ 0.6280 | 272+ 0.3193
273+ 0.6170 | 273+ 0.3093
274+ 0.6060 | 274+ 0.2994
275+ 0.5946 | 275+ 0.2899
280+ 0.5372 | 280+ 0.2445
285+ 0.4781 | 285+ 0.2042
290+ 0.4192 | 290+ 0.1688
295+ 0.3619 | 295+ 0.1384
300+ 0.3070 | 300+ 0.1126
305+ 0.2563 | 305+ 0.0909
310+ 0.2097 | 310+ 0.0730
315+ 0.1685 | 315+ 0.0582
320+ 0.1328 | 320+ 0.0460
325+ 0.1028 | 325+ 0.0362
330+ 0.0779 | 330+ 0.0279
335+ 0.0579 | 335+ 0.0214
340+ 0.0420 | 340+ 0.0163
345+ 0.0298 | 345+ 0.0121
350+ 0.0207 | 350+ 0.0089
355+ 0.0141 | 355+ 0.0064
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