Intrade's "presidential election winner" contracts, by contrast, give Obama a 56.7% chance of winning, and McCain a 42.1% chance of winning.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
210+ 0.9891 | 210+ 0.8375
215+ 0.9854 | 215+ 0.7951
220+ 0.9806 | 220+ 0.7473
225+ 0.9745 | 225+ 0.6946
230+ 0.9667 | 230+ 0.6380
235+ 0.9569 | 235+ 0.5787
240+ 0.9447 | 240+ 0.5181
245+ 0.9295 | 245+ 0.4577
250+ 0.9108 | 250+ 0.3989
255+ 0.8880 | 255+ 0.3429
260+ 0.8606 | 260+ 0.2910
265+ 0.8282 | 265+ 0.2437
266+ 0.8211 | 266+ 0.2348
267+ 0.8138 | 267+ 0.2262
268+ 0.8062 | 268+ 0.2178
269+ 0.7984 | 269+ 0.2096
270+ 0.7904 | 270+ 0.2016
271+ 0.7822 | 271+ 0.1938
272+ 0.7738 | 272+ 0.1862
273+ 0.7652 | 273+ 0.1789
274+ 0.7563 | 274+ 0.1718
275+ 0.7472 | 275+ 0.1649
280+ 0.6990 | 280+ 0.1335
285+ 0.6461 | 285+ 0.1071
290+ 0.5895 | 290+ 0.0851
295+ 0.5303 | 295+ 0.0672
300+ 0.4698 | 300+ 0.0526
305+ 0.4093 | 305+ 0.0409
310+ 0.3504 | 310+ 0.0316
315+ 0.2945 | 315+ 0.0242
320+ 0.2427 | 320+ 0.0184
325+ 0.1959 | 325+ 0.0138
330+ 0.1547 | 330+ 0.0102
335+ 0.1196 | 335+ 0.0075
340+ 0.0902 | 340+ 0.0054
345+ 0.0665 | 345+ 0.0038
350+ 0.0478 | 350+ 0.0027
355+ 0.0336 | 355+ 0.0018
360+ 0.0231 | 360+ 0.0012
365+ 0.0155 | 365+ 0.0008
370+ 0.0102 | 370+ 0.0005
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2 comments:
I'd be interested in seeing the "Obama to win" and "McCain to win" contract odds from intrade for each day, as well.
Thanks for running this.
Good idea, might as well make it easier by putting all the numbers in one place.
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