Thursday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Sep. 25. These numbers show about a +5% bump for Obama, significantly more than the global "Obama next president" contract has gone up on Intrade.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 200+       0.9882    |    200+       0.9430
 205+       0.9842    |    205+       0.9228
 210+       0.9790    |    210+       0.8976
 215+       0.9726    |    215+       0.8671
 220+       0.9645    |    220+       0.8309
 225+       0.9544    |    225+       0.7891
 230+       0.9420    |    230+       0.7420
 235+       0.9266    |    235+       0.6901
 240+       0.9078    |    240+       0.6345
 245+       0.8851    |    245+       0.5762
 250+       0.8578    |    250+       0.5166
 255+       0.8256    |    255+       0.4570
 260+       0.7881    |    260+       0.3990
 265+       0.7454    |    265+       0.3438
 266+       0.7363    |    266+       0.3331
 267+       0.7270    |    267+       0.3227
 268+       0.7174    |    268+       0.3124
 269+       0.7076    |    269+       0.3023
 270+       0.6977    |    270+       0.2924
 271+       0.6876    |    271+       0.2826
 272+       0.6773    |    272+       0.2730
 273+       0.6669    |    273+       0.2637
 274+       0.6562    |    274+       0.2546
 275+       0.6454    |    275+       0.2456
 280+       0.5896    |    280+       0.2039
 285+       0.5311    |    285+       0.1676
 290+       0.4715    |    290+       0.1364
 295+       0.4120    |    295+       0.1101
 300+       0.3542    |    300+       0.0881
 305+       0.2992    |    305+       0.0701
 310+       0.2482    |    310+       0.0553
 315+       0.2021    |    315+       0.0434
 320+       0.1614    |    320+       0.0337
 325+       0.1264    |    325+       0.0260
 330+       0.0969    |    330+       0.0198
 335+       0.0728    |    335+       0.0150
 340+       0.0535    |    340+       0.0111
 345+       0.0385    |    345+       0.0082
 350+       0.0271    |    350+       0.0059
 355+       0.0187    |    355+       0.0042
 360+       0.0126    |    360+       0.0029