Monday night's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the evening of Mon. Sep. 29. Obama's odds continue to rise, presumably in response to the failure of the bailout package in the House and the markets' terrible performance today.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 220+       0.9899    |    220+       0.6760
 225+       0.9864    |    225+       0.6161
 230+       0.9817    |    230+       0.5538
 235+       0.9757    |    235+       0.4906
 240+       0.9679    |    240+       0.4283
 245+       0.9580    |    245+       0.3683
 250+       0.9453    |    250+       0.3120
 255+       0.9292    |    255+       0.2604
 260+       0.9090    |    260+       0.2142
 265+       0.8843    |    265+       0.1738
 266+       0.8787    |    266+       0.1665
 267+       0.8729    |    267+       0.1593
 268+       0.8669    |    268+       0.1525
 269+       0.8607    |    269+       0.1458
 270+       0.8542    |    270+       0.1393
 271+       0.8475    |    271+       0.1331
 272+       0.8407    |    272+       0.1271
 273+       0.8335    |    273+       0.1213
 274+       0.8262    |    274+       0.1157
 275+       0.8185    |    275+       0.1104
 280+       0.7770    |    280+       0.0866
 285+       0.7297    |    285+       0.0673
 290+       0.6771    |    290+       0.0520
 295+       0.6200    |    295+       0.0398
 300+       0.5594    |    300+       0.0303
 305+       0.4968    |    305+       0.0230
 310+       0.4337    |    310+       0.0172
 315+       0.3718    |    315+       0.0128
 320+       0.3124    |    320+       0.0095
 325+       0.2571    |    325+       0.0069
 330+       0.2070    |    330+       0.0049
 335+       0.1629    |    335+       0.0035
 340+       0.1251    |    340+       0.0024
 345+       0.0937    |    345+       0.0016
 350+       0.0684    |    350+       0.0011
 355+       0.0488    |    355+       0.0007
 360+       0.0339    |    360+       0.0005
 365+       0.0230    |    365+       0.0003
 370+       0.0153    |    370+       0.0002