Tuesday Afternoon's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Sep. 30. 87% chance that Obama wins, says the simulation, which is pretty high. But only about 23% higher than the 64% chance Intrade's "Obama to win" contract gives him, which is similar to the sorts of discrepancies we've been seeing since I started doing these analyses. Of course, that's got to flatten out as we approach 100%.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 225+       0.9882    |    225+       0.5854
 230+       0.9841    |    230+       0.5222
 235+       0.9788    |    235+       0.4589
 240+       0.9720    |    240+       0.3975
 245+       0.9631    |    245+       0.3391
 250+       0.9519    |    250+       0.2850
 255+       0.9376    |    255+       0.2360
 260+       0.9197    |    260+       0.1929
 265+       0.8974    |    265+       0.1555
 266+       0.8924    |    266+       0.1487
 267+       0.8872    |    267+       0.1422
 268+       0.8817    |    268+       0.1359
 269+       0.8761    |    269+       0.1298
 270+       0.8702    |    270+       0.1239
 271+       0.8641    |    271+       0.1183
 272+       0.8578    |    272+       0.1128
 273+       0.8513    |    273+       0.1076
 274+       0.8445    |    274+       0.1026
 275+       0.8374    |    275+       0.0978
 280+       0.7990    |    280+       0.0764
 285+       0.7545    |    285+       0.0593
 290+       0.7045    |    290+       0.0456
 295+       0.6495    |    295+       0.0349
 300+       0.5904    |    300+       0.0265
 305+       0.5284    |    305+       0.0200
 310+       0.4651    |    310+       0.0150
 315+       0.4021    |    315+       0.0111
 320+       0.3410    |    320+       0.0081
 325+       0.2832    |    325+       0.0059
 330+       0.2301    |    330+       0.0042
 335+       0.1828    |    335+       0.0029
 340+       0.1417    |    340+       0.0020
 345+       0.1071    |    345+       0.0014
 350+       0.0790    |    350+       0.0009
 355+       0.0568    |    355+       0.0006
 360+       0.0399    |    360+       0.0004
 365+       0.0273    |    365+       0.0002
 370+       0.0183    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0120    |    375+       0.0001