Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
225+ 0.9885 | 225+ 0.5792
230+ 0.9845 | 230+ 0.5158
235+ 0.9793 | 235+ 0.4527
240+ 0.9726 | 240+ 0.3916
245+ 0.9640 | 245+ 0.3336
250+ 0.9530 | 250+ 0.2800
255+ 0.9390 | 255+ 0.2317
260+ 0.9214 | 260+ 0.1891
265+ 0.8996 | 265+ 0.1524
266+ 0.8947 | 266+ 0.1457
267+ 0.8896 | 267+ 0.1393
268+ 0.8842 | 268+ 0.1331
269+ 0.8787 | 269+ 0.1271
270+ 0.8729 | 270+ 0.1213
271+ 0.8669 | 271+ 0.1158
272+ 0.8607 | 272+ 0.1104
273+ 0.8543 | 273+ 0.1053
274+ 0.8476 | 274+ 0.1004
275+ 0.8407 | 275+ 0.0957
280+ 0.8028 | 280+ 0.0747
285+ 0.7590 | 285+ 0.0579
290+ 0.7096 | 290+ 0.0446
295+ 0.6551 | 295+ 0.0341
300+ 0.5965 | 300+ 0.0259
305+ 0.5347 | 305+ 0.0195
310+ 0.4715 | 310+ 0.0146
315+ 0.4084 | 315+ 0.0108
320+ 0.3469 | 320+ 0.0079
325+ 0.2886 | 325+ 0.0057
330+ 0.2349 | 330+ 0.0041
335+ 0.1870 | 335+ 0.0028
340+ 0.1452 | 340+ 0.0019
345+ 0.1100 | 345+ 0.0013
350+ 0.0812 | 350+ 0.0009
355+ 0.0585 | 355+ 0.0006
360+ 0.0411 | 360+ 0.0004
365+ 0.0282 | 365+ 0.0002
370+ 0.0189 | 370+ 0.0001
375+ 0.0125 | 375+ 0.0001
The overall "Obama to win" and "McCain to win" contracts say they have a 64.8% and 34.8% chance respectively.
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