Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
235+ 0.9874 | 235+ 0.3638
240+ 0.9830 | 240+ 0.3062
245+ 0.9773 | 245+ 0.2537
250+ 0.9701 | 250+ 0.2071
255+ 0.9607 | 255+ 0.1668
260+ 0.9487 | 260+ 0.1328
265+ 0.9335 | 265+ 0.1045
266+ 0.9300 | 266+ 0.0995
267+ 0.9264 | 267+ 0.0947
268+ 0.9225 | 268+ 0.0902
269+ 0.9185 | 269+ 0.0858
270+ 0.9142 | 270+ 0.0815
271+ 0.9098 | 271+ 0.0775
272+ 0.9053 | 272+ 0.0736
273+ 0.9005 | 273+ 0.0700
274+ 0.8955 | 274+ 0.0665
275+ 0.8902 | 275+ 0.0632
280+ 0.8609 | 280+ 0.0486
285+ 0.8256 | 285+ 0.0372
290+ 0.7840 | 290+ 0.0283
295+ 0.7363 | 295+ 0.0214
300+ 0.6827 | 300+ 0.0161
305+ 0.6240 | 305+ 0.0119
310+ 0.5614 | 310+ 0.0087
315+ 0.4966 | 315+ 0.0063
320+ 0.4309 | 320+ 0.0045
325+ 0.3663 | 325+ 0.0031
330+ 0.3046 | 330+ 0.0021
335+ 0.2475 | 335+ 0.0014
340+ 0.1960 | 340+ 0.0009
345+ 0.1510 | 345+ 0.0006
350+ 0.1133 | 350+ 0.0004
355+ 0.0827 | 355+ 0.0002
360+ 0.0586 | 360+ 0.0001
365+ 0.0403 | 365+ 0.0001
370+ 0.0272 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.0179 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.0115 | 380+ 0.0000
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