Wednesday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Oct. 15. Today marks the first time Obama's national contract has broken 80%, and the first time that McCain's chances according to my state-by-state simulations have dropped below 2%.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 265+       0.9895    |    265+       0.0182
 266+       0.9889    |    266+       0.0171
 267+       0.9881    |    267+       0.0161
 268+       0.9874    |    268+       0.0152
 269+       0.9866    |    269+       0.0143
 270+       0.9857    |    270+       0.0134
 271+       0.9848    |    271+       0.0126
 272+       0.9839    |    272+       0.0119
 273+       0.9829    |    273+       0.0111
 274+       0.9818    |    274+       0.0105
 275+       0.9807    |    275+       0.0098
 280+       0.9741    |    280+       0.0071
 285+       0.9654    |    285+       0.0051
 290+       0.9542    |    290+       0.0036
 295+       0.9398    |    295+       0.0025
 300+       0.9215    |    300+       0.0017
 305+       0.8985    |    305+       0.0011
 310+       0.8701    |    310+       0.0007
 315+       0.8358    |    315+       0.0005
 320+       0.7950    |    320+       0.0003
 325+       0.7474    |    325+       0.0002
 330+       0.6934    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6335    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5688    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.5008    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.4314    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3631    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2977    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2372    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1839    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1386    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1013    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0721    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0503    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0342    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0229    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0150    |    405+       0.0000