Post-Debate: Thursday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Oct. 16, following the last debate. McCain's numbers have further deteriorated slightly, though not nearly as much as they have on the national contracts, which currently give McCain a 15.3% chance of winning. Then again, there isn't really room for them to.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 266+       0.9895    |    266+       0.0161
 267+       0.9888    |    267+       0.0152
 268+       0.9881    |    268+       0.0143
 269+       0.9874    |    269+       0.0134
 270+       0.9866    |    270+       0.0126
 271+       0.9857    |    271+       0.0119
 272+       0.9848    |    272+       0.0112
 273+       0.9839    |    273+       0.0105
 274+       0.9829    |    274+       0.0098
 275+       0.9819    |    275+       0.0092
 280+       0.9758    |    280+       0.0067
 285+       0.9679    |    285+       0.0047
 290+       0.9577    |    290+       0.0033
 295+       0.9448    |    295+       0.0023
 300+       0.9284    |    300+       0.0015
 305+       0.9078    |    305+       0.0010
 310+       0.8821    |    310+       0.0007
 315+       0.8509    |    315+       0.0004
 320+       0.8133    |    320+       0.0003
 325+       0.7689    |    325+       0.0002
 330+       0.7174    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6595    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5959    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.5275    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.4567    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3861    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.3177    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2534    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1967    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1484    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1084    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0772    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0541    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0371    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0250    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0165    |    405+       0.0000
 410+       0.0106    |    410+       0.0000