Friday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Fri. Oct. 3, following the VP debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden. No dramatic shifts, but Obama's pretty close to the 90% mark at this point.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 230+       0.9875    |    230+       0.4497
 235+       0.9832    |    235+       0.3889
 240+       0.9778    |    240+       0.3317
 245+       0.9708    |    245+       0.2791
 250+       0.9619    |    250+       0.2316
 255+       0.9507    |    255+       0.1898
 260+       0.9366    |    260+       0.1538
 265+       0.9191    |    265+       0.1232
 266+       0.9151    |    266+       0.1178
 267+       0.9110    |    267+       0.1125
 268+       0.9066    |    268+       0.1075
 269+       0.9021    |    269+       0.1026
 270+       0.8974    |    270+       0.0979
 271+       0.8925    |    271+       0.0934
 272+       0.8875    |    272+       0.0890
 273+       0.8822    |    273+       0.0849
 274+       0.8768    |    274+       0.0809
 275+       0.8710    |    275+       0.0771
 280+       0.8395    |    280+       0.0603
 285+       0.8023    |    285+       0.0469
 290+       0.7593    |    290+       0.0361
 295+       0.7108    |    295+       0.0277
 300+       0.6572    |    300+       0.0210
 305+       0.5991    |    305+       0.0158
 310+       0.5378    |    310+       0.0118
 315+       0.4749    |    315+       0.0087
 320+       0.4115    |    320+       0.0063
 325+       0.3496    |    325+       0.0045
 330+       0.2908    |    330+       0.0031
 335+       0.2365    |    335+       0.0021
 340+       0.1877    |    340+       0.0014
 345+       0.1452    |    345+       0.0010
 350+       0.1095    |    350+       0.0006
 355+       0.0805    |    355+       0.0004
 360+       0.0576    |    360+       0.0002
 365+       0.0400    |    365+       0.0001
 370+       0.0273    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0182    |    375+       0.0001
 380+       0.0119    |    380+       0.0000