Friday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Fri. Oct. 31. McCain's chances of winning are down to 1.16%. [Insert trick-or-treat joke here.] The national Obama-to-win contract is sitting at 85%. Just a few days to go!

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at
269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 267+       0.9898    |    267+       0.0141
 268+       0.9891    |    268+       0.0132
 269+       0.9884    |    269+       0.0124
 270+       0.9876    |    270+       0.0116
 271+       0.9868    |    271+       0.0109
 272+       0.9859    |    272+       0.0102
 273+       0.9850    |    273+       0.0096
 274+       0.9840    |    274+       0.0090
 275+       0.9829    |    275+       0.0084
 280+       0.9768    |    280+       0.0060
 285+       0.9685    |    285+       0.0042
 290+       0.9575    |    290+       0.0029
 295+       0.9432    |    295+       0.0020
 300+       0.9247    |    300+       0.0014
 305+       0.9012    |    305+       0.0009
 310+       0.8716    |    310+       0.0006
 315+       0.8357    |    315+       0.0004
 320+       0.7927    |    320+       0.0002
 325+       0.7425    |    325+       0.0001
 330+       0.6849    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6220    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5538    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.4820    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.4098    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3393    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2724    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2103    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1580    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1142    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0785    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0529    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0345    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0219    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0137    |    400+       0.0000