Thursday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Oct. 9. A further increase for Obama's odds, up to a 96% chance that he'll win outright. Interestingly, this is on the heels of a 3% decrease of his odds to 74% on the main Intrade "Obama to win" contract.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 250+       0.9875    |    250+       0.1095
 255+       0.9831    |    255+       0.0852
 260+       0.9773    |    260+       0.0657
 265+       0.9697    |    265+       0.0502
 266+       0.9679    |    266+       0.0475
 267+       0.9660    |    267+       0.0449
 268+       0.9640    |    268+       0.0425
 269+       0.9620    |    269+       0.0402
 270+       0.9598    |    270+       0.0380
 271+       0.9575    |    271+       0.0360
 272+       0.9551    |    272+       0.0340
 273+       0.9525    |    273+       0.0321
 274+       0.9498    |    274+       0.0303
 275+       0.9470    |    275+       0.0287
 280+       0.9308    |    280+       0.0214
 285+       0.9103    |    285+       0.0159
 290+       0.8850    |    290+       0.0117
 295+       0.8542    |    295+       0.0085
 300+       0.8174    |    300+       0.0062
 305+       0.7743    |    305+       0.0044
 310+       0.7249    |    310+       0.0031
 315+       0.6698    |    315+       0.0021
 320+       0.6095    |    320+       0.0015
 325+       0.5454    |    325+       0.0010
 330+       0.4789    |    330+       0.0006
 335+       0.4122    |    335+       0.0004
 340+       0.3467    |    340+       0.0003
 345+       0.2844    |    345+       0.0002
 350+       0.2275    |    350+       0.0001
 355+       0.1772    |    355+       0.0001
 360+       0.1341    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.0984    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.0707    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0494    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0336    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0225    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0148    |    390+       0.0000