Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
265+ 0.9885 | 265+ 0.0201
266+ 0.9877 | 266+ 0.0189
267+ 0.9869 | 267+ 0.0178
268+ 0.9861 | 268+ 0.0168
269+ 0.9852 | 269+ 0.0158
270+ 0.9842 | 270+ 0.0148
271+ 0.9832 | 271+ 0.0139
272+ 0.9822 | 272+ 0.0131
273+ 0.9811 | 273+ 0.0123
274+ 0.9799 | 274+ 0.0115
275+ 0.9786 | 275+ 0.0108
280+ 0.9712 | 280+ 0.0078
285+ 0.9613 | 285+ 0.0056
290+ 0.9484 | 290+ 0.0040
295+ 0.9317 | 295+ 0.0028
300+ 0.9104 | 300+ 0.0019
305+ 0.8837 | 305+ 0.0013
310+ 0.8508 | 310+ 0.0008
315+ 0.8115 | 315+ 0.0005
320+ 0.7652 | 320+ 0.0003
325+ 0.7121 | 325+ 0.0002
330+ 0.6526 | 330+ 0.0001
335+ 0.5884 | 335+ 0.0001
340+ 0.5205 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.4504 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.3810 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.3146 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.2527 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.1968 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.1494 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.1101 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.0786 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0549 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0377 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0254 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0168 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0108 | 405+ 0.0000
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