Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Fri. Oct. 10. Another day, another point for Obama, who now sits at 96.85% to win here, 77% in his "Obama to win" national contract.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 255+       0.9869    |    255+       0.0673
 260+       0.9823    |    260+       0.0516
 265+       0.9763    |    265+       0.0393
 266+       0.9749    |    266+       0.0372
 267+       0.9734    |    267+       0.0352
 268+       0.9719    |    268+       0.0333
 269+       0.9702    |    269+       0.0315
 270+       0.9685    |    270+       0.0298
 271+       0.9667    |    271+       0.0281
 272+       0.9648    |    272+       0.0266
 273+       0.9628    |    273+       0.0251
 274+       0.9607    |    274+       0.0237
 275+       0.9584    |    275+       0.0224
 280+       0.9455    |    280+       0.0167
 285+       0.9291    |    285+       0.0124
 290+       0.9085    |    290+       0.0090
 295+       0.8831    |    295+       0.0065
 300+       0.8521    |    300+       0.0047
 305+       0.8150    |    305+       0.0033
 310+       0.7715    |    310+       0.0023
 315+       0.7219    |    315+       0.0015
 320+       0.6662    |    320+       0.0010
 325+       0.6054    |    325+       0.0007
 330+       0.5406    |    330+       0.0004
 335+       0.4737    |    335+       0.0003
 340+       0.4063    |    340+       0.0002
 345+       0.3402    |    345+       0.0001
 350+       0.2778    |    350+       0.0001
 355+       0.2209    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.1708    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.1278    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.0932    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0664    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0458    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0310    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0207    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0135    |    395+       0.0000