Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
230+ 0.9873 | 230+ 0.4560
235+ 0.9830 | 235+ 0.3947
240+ 0.9774 | 240+ 0.3369
245+ 0.9704 | 245+ 0.2835
250+ 0.9614 | 250+ 0.2352
255+ 0.9501 | 255+ 0.1926
260+ 0.9359 | 260+ 0.1559
265+ 0.9181 | 265+ 0.1249
266+ 0.9141 | 266+ 0.1193
267+ 0.9099 | 267+ 0.1139
268+ 0.9055 | 268+ 0.1088
269+ 0.9009 | 269+ 0.1039
270+ 0.8961 | 270+ 0.0991
271+ 0.8912 | 271+ 0.0945
272+ 0.8861 | 272+ 0.0901
273+ 0.8807 | 273+ 0.0859
274+ 0.8751 | 274+ 0.0819
275+ 0.8693 | 275+ 0.0780
280+ 0.8372 | 280+ 0.0610
285+ 0.7993 | 285+ 0.0474
290+ 0.7556 | 290+ 0.0366
295+ 0.7063 | 295+ 0.0281
300+ 0.6519 | 300+ 0.0214
305+ 0.5932 | 305+ 0.0161
310+ 0.5316 | 310+ 0.0120
315+ 0.4686 | 315+ 0.0088
320+ 0.4056 | 320+ 0.0064
325+ 0.3444 | 325+ 0.0045
330+ 0.2864 | 330+ 0.0032
335+ 0.2332 | 335+ 0.0022
340+ 0.1855 | 340+ 0.0015
345+ 0.1440 | 345+ 0.0010
350+ 0.1091 | 350+ 0.0006
355+ 0.0808 | 355+ 0.0004
360+ 0.0583 | 360+ 0.0002
365+ 0.0409 | 365+ 0.0001
370+ 0.0283 | 370+ 0.0001
375+ 0.0191 | 375+ 0.0001
380+ 0.0126 | 380+ 0.0000
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment