Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
225+ 0.9888 | 225+ 0.5493
230+ 0.9849 | 230+ 0.4864
235+ 0.9800 | 235+ 0.4245
240+ 0.9736 | 240+ 0.3654
245+ 0.9655 | 245+ 0.3101
250+ 0.9553 | 250+ 0.2596
255+ 0.9424 | 255+ 0.2144
260+ 0.9262 | 260+ 0.1750
265+ 0.9063 | 265+ 0.1413
266+ 0.9018 | 266+ 0.1352
267+ 0.8971 | 267+ 0.1293
268+ 0.8922 | 268+ 0.1236
269+ 0.8871 | 269+ 0.1182
270+ 0.8818 | 270+ 0.1129
271+ 0.8764 | 271+ 0.1078
272+ 0.8707 | 272+ 0.1029
273+ 0.8648 | 273+ 0.0982
274+ 0.8587 | 274+ 0.0937
275+ 0.8524 | 275+ 0.0894
280+ 0.8175 | 280+ 0.0702
285+ 0.7769 | 285+ 0.0548
290+ 0.7307 | 290+ 0.0425
295+ 0.6792 | 295+ 0.0327
300+ 0.6231 | 300+ 0.0250
305+ 0.5632 | 305+ 0.0189
310+ 0.5011 | 310+ 0.0142
315+ 0.4382 | 315+ 0.0105
320+ 0.3760 | 320+ 0.0077
325+ 0.3161 | 325+ 0.0055
330+ 0.2601 | 330+ 0.0039
335+ 0.2093 | 335+ 0.0027
340+ 0.1644 | 340+ 0.0019
345+ 0.1258 | 345+ 0.0012
350+ 0.0939 | 350+ 0.0008
355+ 0.0683 | 355+ 0.0005
360+ 0.0483 | 360+ 0.0003
365+ 0.0333 | 365+ 0.0002
370+ 0.0225 | 370+ 0.0001
375+ 0.0149 | 375+ 0.0001
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