Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
265+ 0.9888 | 265+ 0.0192
266+ 0.9881 | 266+ 0.0181
267+ 0.9874 | 267+ 0.0171
268+ 0.9866 | 268+ 0.0161
269+ 0.9857 | 269+ 0.0151
270+ 0.9849 | 270+ 0.0143
271+ 0.9839 | 271+ 0.0134
272+ 0.9829 | 272+ 0.0126
273+ 0.9819 | 273+ 0.0119
274+ 0.9808 | 274+ 0.0112
275+ 0.9797 | 275+ 0.0105
280+ 0.9730 | 280+ 0.0076
285+ 0.9645 | 285+ 0.0054
290+ 0.9536 | 290+ 0.0038
295+ 0.9398 | 295+ 0.0026
300+ 0.9224 | 300+ 0.0018
305+ 0.9005 | 305+ 0.0012
310+ 0.8734 | 310+ 0.0008
315+ 0.8406 | 315+ 0.0005
320+ 0.8013 | 320+ 0.0003
325+ 0.7553 | 325+ 0.0002
330+ 0.7020 | 330+ 0.0001
335+ 0.6432 | 335+ 0.0001
340+ 0.5787 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.5097 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.4391 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.3687 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.3007 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.2365 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.1808 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.1331 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.0936 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0641 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0425 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0273 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0173 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0107 | 405+ 0.0000
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