Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
240+ 0.9885 | 240+ 0.2221
245+ 0.9845 | 245+ 0.1813
250+ 0.9793 | 250+ 0.1463
255+ 0.9728 | 255+ 0.1169
260+ 0.9644 | 260+ 0.0925
265+ 0.9538 | 265+ 0.0727
266+ 0.9513 | 266+ 0.0692
267+ 0.9488 | 267+ 0.0658
268+ 0.9461 | 268+ 0.0627
269+ 0.9433 | 269+ 0.0596
270+ 0.9404 | 270+ 0.0567
271+ 0.9373 | 271+ 0.0539
272+ 0.9342 | 272+ 0.0512
273+ 0.9308 | 273+ 0.0487
274+ 0.9273 | 274+ 0.0462
275+ 0.9237 | 275+ 0.0439
280+ 0.9030 | 280+ 0.0338
285+ 0.8776 | 285+ 0.0258
290+ 0.8471 | 290+ 0.0195
295+ 0.8110 | 295+ 0.0146
300+ 0.7691 | 300+ 0.0109
305+ 0.7212 | 305+ 0.0079
310+ 0.6679 | 310+ 0.0057
315+ 0.6100 | 315+ 0.0040
320+ 0.5483 | 320+ 0.0028
325+ 0.4845 | 325+ 0.0019
330+ 0.4200 | 330+ 0.0013
335+ 0.3569 | 335+ 0.0008
340+ 0.2965 | 340+ 0.0005
345+ 0.2405 | 345+ 0.0003
350+ 0.1905 | 350+ 0.0002
355+ 0.1471 | 355+ 0.0001
360+ 0.1107 | 360+ 0.0001
365+ 0.0810 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.0582 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.0408 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.0279 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0188 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0124 | 390+ 0.0000
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