Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
230+ 0.9867 | 230+ 0.4796
235+ 0.9821 | 235+ 0.4178
240+ 0.9762 | 240+ 0.3586
245+ 0.9686 | 245+ 0.3034
250+ 0.9589 | 250+ 0.2530
255+ 0.9465 | 255+ 0.2080
260+ 0.9309 | 260+ 0.1688
265+ 0.9114 | 265+ 0.1353
266+ 0.9070 | 266+ 0.1293
267+ 0.9025 | 267+ 0.1235
268+ 0.8977 | 268+ 0.1179
269+ 0.8927 | 269+ 0.1125
270+ 0.8875 | 270+ 0.1073
271+ 0.8821 | 271+ 0.1023
272+ 0.8765 | 272+ 0.0975
273+ 0.8707 | 273+ 0.0930
274+ 0.8647 | 274+ 0.0886
275+ 0.8584 | 275+ 0.0843
280+ 0.8238 | 280+ 0.0656
285+ 0.7834 | 285+ 0.0507
290+ 0.7373 | 290+ 0.0389
295+ 0.6859 | 295+ 0.0297
300+ 0.6298 | 300+ 0.0225
305+ 0.5700 | 305+ 0.0169
310+ 0.5078 | 310+ 0.0126
315+ 0.4448 | 315+ 0.0093
320+ 0.3825 | 320+ 0.0067
325+ 0.3225 | 325+ 0.0048
330+ 0.2662 | 330+ 0.0034
335+ 0.2150 | 335+ 0.0024
340+ 0.1696 | 340+ 0.0016
345+ 0.1304 | 345+ 0.0011
350+ 0.0979 | 350+ 0.0007
355+ 0.0717 | 355+ 0.0005
360+ 0.0511 | 360+ 0.0003
365+ 0.0355 | 365+ 0.0002
370+ 0.0242 | 370+ 0.0001
375+ 0.0161 | 375+ 0.0001
380+ 0.0104 | 380+ 0.0000
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