Monday morning's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Mon. Oct. 13. Virtually no change from yesterday, although Obama's lost 1.2 points to go to 76.5% on the national Intrade contract.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 255+       0.9878    |    255+       0.0635
 260+       0.9834    |    260+       0.0486
 265+       0.9778    |    265+       0.0370
 266+       0.9765    |    266+       0.0350
 267+       0.9751    |    267+       0.0331
 268+       0.9736    |    268+       0.0313
 269+       0.9720    |    269+       0.0296
 270+       0.9704    |    270+       0.0280
 271+       0.9687    |    271+       0.0264
 272+       0.9669    |    272+       0.0249
 273+       0.9650    |    273+       0.0235
 274+       0.9630    |    274+       0.0222
 275+       0.9609    |    275+       0.0210
 280+       0.9487    |    280+       0.0156
 285+       0.9331    |    285+       0.0115
 290+       0.9134    |    290+       0.0084
 295+       0.8891    |    295+       0.0061
 300+       0.8593    |    300+       0.0043
 305+       0.8235    |    305+       0.0030
 310+       0.7813    |    310+       0.0021
 315+       0.7328    |    315+       0.0014
 320+       0.6781    |    320+       0.0009
 325+       0.6180    |    325+       0.0006
 330+       0.5534    |    330+       0.0004
 335+       0.4864    |    335+       0.0002
 340+       0.4184    |    340+       0.0001
 345+       0.3513    |    345+       0.0001
 350+       0.2877    |    350+       0.0001
 355+       0.2295    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.1778    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.1336    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.0977    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0697    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0483    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0328    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0219    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0143    |    395+       0.0000