Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
255+ 0.9877 | 255+ 0.0635
260+ 0.9834 | 260+ 0.0487
265+ 0.9777 | 265+ 0.0370
266+ 0.9764 | 266+ 0.0350
267+ 0.9750 | 267+ 0.0331
268+ 0.9736 | 268+ 0.0313
269+ 0.9720 | 269+ 0.0296
270+ 0.9704 | 270+ 0.0280
271+ 0.9687 | 271+ 0.0264
272+ 0.9669 | 272+ 0.0250
273+ 0.9650 | 273+ 0.0236
274+ 0.9630 | 274+ 0.0223
275+ 0.9609 | 275+ 0.0210
280+ 0.9486 | 280+ 0.0157
285+ 0.9331 | 285+ 0.0115
290+ 0.9135 | 290+ 0.0084
295+ 0.8892 | 295+ 0.0061
300+ 0.8595 | 300+ 0.0043
305+ 0.8239 | 305+ 0.0030
310+ 0.7819 | 310+ 0.0021
315+ 0.7337 | 315+ 0.0014
320+ 0.6794 | 320+ 0.0009
325+ 0.6197 | 325+ 0.0006
330+ 0.5558 | 330+ 0.0004
335+ 0.4893 | 335+ 0.0002
340+ 0.4219 | 340+ 0.0002
345+ 0.3554 | 345+ 0.0001
350+ 0.2921 | 350+ 0.0001
355+ 0.2339 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.1822 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.1375 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.1012 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.0726 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.0505 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0344 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0230 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0151 | 395+ 0.0000
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