Thursday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Oct. 30, a mere 5 days from election day (for those not counting the minutes). Although his national contract is down to 84.5%, Obama's state-by-state numbers look as good as ever after a momentary (and small) post-infomercial blip last night.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 266+       0.9894    |    266+       0.0165
 267+       0.9887    |    267+       0.0155
 268+       0.9880    |    268+       0.0146
 269+       0.9872    |    269+       0.0136
 270+       0.9864    |    270+       0.0128
 271+       0.9854    |    271+       0.0120
 272+       0.9845    |    272+       0.0113
 273+       0.9835    |    273+       0.0106
 274+       0.9824    |    274+       0.0099
 275+       0.9813    |    275+       0.0093
 280+       0.9746    |    280+       0.0066
 285+       0.9656    |    285+       0.0047
 290+       0.9537    |    290+       0.0033
 295+       0.9382    |    295+       0.0023
 300+       0.9184    |    300+       0.0015
 305+       0.8932    |    305+       0.0010
 310+       0.8618    |    310+       0.0007
 315+       0.8239    |    315+       0.0004
 320+       0.7788    |    320+       0.0003
 325+       0.7267    |    325+       0.0002
 330+       0.6674    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6035    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5346    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.4631    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.3917    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3227    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2580    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.1985    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1492    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1078    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0747    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0508    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0336    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0217    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0138    |    400+       0.0000