Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Tue. Oct. 7, going into the debate. Obama's numbers keep increasing, with him winning 93.6% of the time. Intrade's global contract gives him a 68.7% chance to win.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 240+       0.9887    |    240+       0.2502
 245+       0.9847    |    245+       0.2039
 250+       0.9794    |    250+       0.1638
 255+       0.9724    |    255+       0.1298
 260+       0.9632    |    260+       0.1017
 265+       0.9514    |    265+       0.0787
 266+       0.9487    |    266+       0.0747
 267+       0.9458    |    267+       0.0708
 268+       0.9428    |    268+       0.0672
 269+       0.9396    |    269+       0.0637
 270+       0.9363    |    270+       0.0604
 271+       0.9328    |    271+       0.0572
 272+       0.9292    |    272+       0.0542
 273+       0.9253    |    273+       0.0513
 274+       0.9213    |    274+       0.0486
 275+       0.9171    |    275+       0.0460
 280+       0.8931    |    280+       0.0347
 285+       0.8638    |    285+       0.0261
 290+       0.8286    |    290+       0.0195
 295+       0.7873    |    295+       0.0144
 300+       0.7399    |    300+       0.0106
 305+       0.6867    |    305+       0.0077
 310+       0.6285    |    310+       0.0055
 315+       0.5666    |    315+       0.0039
 320+       0.5021    |    320+       0.0028
 325+       0.4368    |    325+       0.0019
 330+       0.3725    |    330+       0.0013
 335+       0.3111    |    335+       0.0008
 340+       0.2539    |    340+       0.0005
 345+       0.2022    |    345+       0.0003
 350+       0.1572    |    350+       0.0002
 355+       0.1192    |    355+       0.0001
 360+       0.0882    |    360+       0.0001
 365+       0.0635    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.0449    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0311    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0210    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0139    |    385+       0.0000