Sunday's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Oct. 19.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 267+       0.9897    |    267+       0.0145
 268+       0.9889    |    268+       0.0135
 269+       0.9882    |    269+       0.0126
 270+       0.9874    |    270+       0.0118
 271+       0.9865    |    271+       0.0111
 272+       0.9855    |    272+       0.0103
 273+       0.9846    |    273+       0.0097
 274+       0.9835    |    274+       0.0090
 275+       0.9824    |    275+       0.0084
 280+       0.9756    |    280+       0.0060
 285+       0.9665    |    285+       0.0042
 290+       0.9543    |    290+       0.0029
 295+       0.9383    |    295+       0.0020
 300+       0.9178    |    300+       0.0014
 305+       0.8918    |    305+       0.0009
 310+       0.8596    |    310+       0.0006
 315+       0.8210    |    315+       0.0004
 320+       0.7753    |    320+       0.0002
 325+       0.7228    |    325+       0.0001
 330+       0.6639    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6001    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5323    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.4623    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.3927    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3257    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2629    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2058    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1572    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1165    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0836    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0587    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0405    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0274    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0181    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0118    |    405+       0.0000