Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at
269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
265+ 0.9877 | 265+ 0.0210
266+ 0.9869 | 266+ 0.0198
267+ 0.9861 | 267+ 0.0187
268+ 0.9852 | 268+ 0.0177
269+ 0.9843 | 269+ 0.0166
270+ 0.9834 | 270+ 0.0157
271+ 0.9823 | 271+ 0.0148
272+ 0.9813 | 272+ 0.0139
273+ 0.9802 | 273+ 0.0131
274+ 0.9790 | 274+ 0.0123
275+ 0.9777 | 275+ 0.0116
280+ 0.9706 | 280+ 0.0085
285+ 0.9613 | 285+ 0.0061
290+ 0.9496 | 290+ 0.0043
295+ 0.9347 | 295+ 0.0030
300+ 0.9161 | 300+ 0.0020
305+ 0.8930 | 305+ 0.0014
310+ 0.8645 | 310+ 0.0009
315+ 0.8304 | 315+ 0.0006
320+ 0.7897 | 320+ 0.0004
325+ 0.7425 | 325+ 0.0002
330+ 0.6883 | 330+ 0.0001
335+ 0.6289 | 335+ 0.0001
340+ 0.5641 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.4954 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.4257 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.3566 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.2905 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.2286 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.1754 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.1299 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.0924 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0644 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0437 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0289 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0188 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0120 | 405+ 0.0000
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