Friday night's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the evening of Fri. Oct. 31.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 268+       0.9894    |    268+       0.0129
 269+       0.9887    |    269+       0.0121
 270+       0.9879    |    270+       0.0113
 271+       0.9871    |    271+       0.0106
 272+       0.9863    |    272+       0.0099
 273+       0.9854    |    273+       0.0093
 274+       0.9844    |    274+       0.0087
 275+       0.9834    |    275+       0.0082
 280+       0.9774    |    280+       0.0058
 285+       0.9693    |    285+       0.0041
 290+       0.9585    |    290+       0.0028
 295+       0.9443    |    295+       0.0019
 300+       0.9260    |    300+       0.0013
 305+       0.9025    |    305+       0.0009
 310+       0.8727    |    310+       0.0006
 315+       0.8365    |    315+       0.0003
 320+       0.7929    |    320+       0.0002
 325+       0.7418    |    325+       0.0001
 330+       0.6831    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6193    |    335+       0.0000
 340+       0.5498    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.4767    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.4037    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3322    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2648    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2025    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1507    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1075    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0730    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0486    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0314    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0198    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0123    |    400+       0.0000