Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
265+ 0.9879 | 265+ 0.0211
266+ 0.9871 | 266+ 0.0199
267+ 0.9863 | 267+ 0.0187
268+ 0.9854 | 268+ 0.0176
269+ 0.9844 | 269+ 0.0166
270+ 0.9834 | 270+ 0.0156
271+ 0.9824 | 271+ 0.0146
272+ 0.9813 | 272+ 0.0137
273+ 0.9801 | 273+ 0.0129
274+ 0.9789 | 274+ 0.0121
275+ 0.9776 | 275+ 0.0114
280+ 0.9698 | 280+ 0.0083
285+ 0.9595 | 285+ 0.0059
290+ 0.9461 | 290+ 0.0042
295+ 0.9288 | 295+ 0.0029
300+ 0.9068 | 300+ 0.0020
305+ 0.8793 | 305+ 0.0014
310+ 0.8456 | 310+ 0.0009
315+ 0.8056 | 315+ 0.0006
320+ 0.7586 | 320+ 0.0004
325+ 0.7052 | 325+ 0.0002
330+ 0.6458 | 330+ 0.0001
335+ 0.5819 | 335+ 0.0001
340+ 0.5147 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.4456 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.3775 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.3123 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.2516 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.1966 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.1497 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.1106 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.0789 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0550 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0376 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0252 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0166 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0107 | 405+ 0.0000
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