Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
255+ 0.9871 | 255+ 0.0664
260+ 0.9825 | 260+ 0.0510
265+ 0.9766 | 265+ 0.0388
266+ 0.9752 | 266+ 0.0367
267+ 0.9738 | 267+ 0.0347
268+ 0.9722 | 268+ 0.0329
269+ 0.9706 | 269+ 0.0311
270+ 0.9689 | 270+ 0.0294
271+ 0.9671 | 271+ 0.0278
272+ 0.9653 | 272+ 0.0262
273+ 0.9633 | 273+ 0.0248
274+ 0.9612 | 274+ 0.0234
275+ 0.9590 | 275+ 0.0221
280+ 0.9462 | 280+ 0.0165
285+ 0.9300 | 285+ 0.0122
290+ 0.9096 | 290+ 0.0089
295+ 0.8844 | 295+ 0.0064
300+ 0.8537 | 300+ 0.0046
305+ 0.8169 | 305+ 0.0032
310+ 0.7738 | 310+ 0.0022
315+ 0.7245 | 315+ 0.0015
320+ 0.6693 | 320+ 0.0010
325+ 0.6090 | 325+ 0.0007
330+ 0.5448 | 330+ 0.0004
335+ 0.4784 | 335+ 0.0003
340+ 0.4114 | 340+ 0.0002
345+ 0.3457 | 345+ 0.0001
350+ 0.2835 | 350+ 0.0001
355+ 0.2267 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.1762 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.1328 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.0976 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.0699 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.0486 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0331 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0221 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0145 | 395+ 0.0000
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