Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
265+ 0.9884 | 265+ 0.0198
266+ 0.9877 | 266+ 0.0187
267+ 0.9869 | 267+ 0.0176
268+ 0.9861 | 268+ 0.0166
269+ 0.9852 | 269+ 0.0157
270+ 0.9843 | 270+ 0.0148
271+ 0.9834 | 271+ 0.0139
272+ 0.9824 | 272+ 0.0131
273+ 0.9813 | 273+ 0.0123
274+ 0.9802 | 274+ 0.0116
275+ 0.9790 | 275+ 0.0109
280+ 0.9722 | 280+ 0.0079
285+ 0.9635 | 285+ 0.0057
290+ 0.9524 | 290+ 0.0040
295+ 0.9382 | 295+ 0.0028
300+ 0.9204 | 300+ 0.0019
305+ 0.8983 | 305+ 0.0013
310+ 0.8709 | 310+ 0.0008
315+ 0.8380 | 315+ 0.0005
320+ 0.7987 | 320+ 0.0003
325+ 0.7529 | 325+ 0.0002
330+ 0.7008 | 330+ 0.0001
335+ 0.6431 | 335+ 0.0001
340+ 0.5805 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.5141 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.4463 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.3787 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.3134 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.2520 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.1972 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.1496 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.1093 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0778 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0540 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0365 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0242 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0157 | 405+ 0.0000
410+ 0.0101 | 410+ 0.0000
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