Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
265+ 0.9871 | 265+ 0.0223
266+ 0.9862 | 266+ 0.0210
267+ 0.9854 | 267+ 0.0198
268+ 0.9844 | 268+ 0.0186
269+ 0.9835 | 269+ 0.0175
270+ 0.9825 | 270+ 0.0165
271+ 0.9814 | 271+ 0.0156
272+ 0.9802 | 272+ 0.0146
273+ 0.9790 | 273+ 0.0138
274+ 0.9777 | 274+ 0.0129
275+ 0.9764 | 275+ 0.0122
280+ 0.9685 | 280+ 0.0089
285+ 0.9582 | 285+ 0.0064
290+ 0.9449 | 290+ 0.0045
295+ 0.9279 | 295+ 0.0032
300+ 0.9065 | 300+ 0.0022
305+ 0.8797 | 305+ 0.0015
310+ 0.8469 | 310+ 0.0010
315+ 0.8079 | 315+ 0.0006
320+ 0.7620 | 320+ 0.0004
325+ 0.7096 | 325+ 0.0003
330+ 0.6508 | 330+ 0.0002
335+ 0.5876 | 335+ 0.0001
340+ 0.5204 | 340+ 0.0001
345+ 0.4511 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.3823 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.3162 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.2543 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.1976 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.1497 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.1098 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.0775 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0536 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0364 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0243 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0159 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0102 | 405+ 0.0000
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