Tuesday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Oct. 14. McCain's chances dropped very slightly again today. Intrade's national contracts still have Obama at a 77% chance to win.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 255+       0.9887    |    255+       0.0590
 260+       0.9846    |    260+       0.0452
 265+       0.9794    |    265+       0.0344
 266+       0.9781    |    266+       0.0325
 267+       0.9768    |    267+       0.0307
 268+       0.9755    |    268+       0.0291
 269+       0.9740    |    269+       0.0275
 270+       0.9725    |    270+       0.0260
 271+       0.9709    |    271+       0.0245
 272+       0.9693    |    272+       0.0232
 273+       0.9675    |    273+       0.0219
 274+       0.9656    |    274+       0.0206
 275+       0.9637    |    275+       0.0195
 280+       0.9523    |    280+       0.0145
 285+       0.9378    |    285+       0.0107
 290+       0.9195    |    290+       0.0078
 295+       0.8968    |    295+       0.0056
 300+       0.8690    |    300+       0.0040
 305+       0.8353    |    305+       0.0028
 310+       0.7956    |    310+       0.0019
 315+       0.7496    |    315+       0.0013
 320+       0.6975    |    320+       0.0008
 325+       0.6398    |    325+       0.0006
 330+       0.5774    |    330+       0.0003
 335+       0.5119    |    335+       0.0002
 340+       0.4449    |    340+       0.0001
 345+       0.3782    |    345+       0.0001
 350+       0.3139    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.2541    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2002    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.1532    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1141    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0827    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0583    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0402    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0272    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0180    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0117    |    400+       0.0000