Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
265+ 0.9890 | 265+ 0.0193
266+ 0.9883 | 266+ 0.0181
267+ 0.9875 | 267+ 0.0171
268+ 0.9867 | 268+ 0.0160
269+ 0.9858 | 269+ 0.0151
270+ 0.9849 | 270+ 0.0142
271+ 0.9840 | 271+ 0.0133
272+ 0.9829 | 272+ 0.0125
273+ 0.9819 | 273+ 0.0117
274+ 0.9807 | 274+ 0.0110
275+ 0.9795 | 275+ 0.0103
280+ 0.9724 | 280+ 0.0075
285+ 0.9629 | 285+ 0.0053
290+ 0.9504 | 290+ 0.0038
295+ 0.9342 | 295+ 0.0026
300+ 0.9135 | 300+ 0.0018
305+ 0.8875 | 305+ 0.0012
310+ 0.8552 | 310+ 0.0008
315+ 0.8165 | 315+ 0.0005
320+ 0.7707 | 320+ 0.0003
325+ 0.7180 | 325+ 0.0002
330+ 0.6585 | 330+ 0.0001
335+ 0.5943 | 335+ 0.0001
340+ 0.5260 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.4550 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.3848 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.3174 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.2543 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.1970 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.1489 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.1089 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.0769 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0532 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0361 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0241 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0157 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0100 | 405+ 0.0000
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