Saturday afternoon's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the afternoon of Sat. Sep. 27. About a 1.5% gain for Obama since the morning, which is in line with about a 1% gain on the "obama to win" contract since then.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 215+       0.9869    |    215+       0.7809
 220+       0.9826    |    220+       0.7311
 225+       0.9770    |    225+       0.6768
 230+       0.9699    |    230+       0.6189
 235+       0.9609    |    235+       0.5586
 240+       0.9497    |    240+       0.4977
 245+       0.9357    |    245+       0.4374
 250+       0.9183    |    250+       0.3791
 255+       0.8971    |    255+       0.3241
 260+       0.8714    |    260+       0.2735
 265+       0.8407    |    265+       0.2279
 266+       0.8340    |    266+       0.2194
 267+       0.8270    |    267+       0.2111
 268+       0.8198    |    268+       0.2031
 269+       0.8124    |    269+       0.1952
 270+       0.8048    |    270+       0.1876
 271+       0.7969    |    271+       0.1802
 272+       0.7889    |    272+       0.1730
 273+       0.7806    |    273+       0.1660
 274+       0.7721    |    274+       0.1593
 275+       0.7634    |    275+       0.1527
 280+       0.7167    |    280+       0.1231
 285+       0.6651    |    285+       0.0984
 290+       0.6094    |    290+       0.0779
 295+       0.5507    |    295+       0.0613
 300+       0.4902    |    300+       0.0479
 305+       0.4292    |    305+       0.0371
 310+       0.3693    |    310+       0.0286
 315+       0.3121    |    315+       0.0218
 320+       0.2585    |    320+       0.0165
 325+       0.2098    |    325+       0.0123
 330+       0.1666    |    330+       0.0091
 335+       0.1294    |    335+       0.0066
 340+       0.0982    |    340+       0.0047
 345+       0.0727    |    345+       0.0033
 350+       0.0526    |    350+       0.0023
 355+       0.0371    |    355+       0.0016
 360+       0.0256    |    360+       0.0011
 365+       0.0172    |    365+       0.0007
 370+       0.0114    |    370+       0.0004