Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
205+ 0.9885 | 205+ 0.8946
210+ 0.9846 | 210+ 0.8631
215+ 0.9796 | 215+ 0.8258
220+ 0.9733 | 220+ 0.7829
225+ 0.9653 | 225+ 0.7349
230+ 0.9555 | 230+ 0.6822
235+ 0.9433 | 235+ 0.6259
240+ 0.9283 | 240+ 0.5673
245+ 0.9099 | 245+ 0.5076
250+ 0.8877 | 250+ 0.4484
255+ 0.8611 | 255+ 0.3909
260+ 0.8296 | 260+ 0.3364
265+ 0.7930 | 265+ 0.2858
266+ 0.7851 | 266+ 0.2763
267+ 0.7770 | 267+ 0.2669
268+ 0.7686 | 268+ 0.2578
269+ 0.7600 | 269+ 0.2488
270+ 0.7512 | 270+ 0.2400
271+ 0.7422 | 271+ 0.2314
272+ 0.7331 | 272+ 0.2230
273+ 0.7237 | 273+ 0.2149
274+ 0.7142 | 274+ 0.2070
275+ 0.7044 | 275+ 0.1992
280+ 0.6530 | 280+ 0.1637
285+ 0.5978 | 285+ 0.1333
290+ 0.5399 | 290+ 0.1075
295+ 0.4804 | 295+ 0.0861
300+ 0.4209 | 300+ 0.0685
305+ 0.3626 | 305+ 0.0541
310+ 0.3070 | 310+ 0.0424
315+ 0.2552 | 315+ 0.0329
320+ 0.2081 | 320+ 0.0254
325+ 0.1663 | 325+ 0.0193
330+ 0.1301 | 330+ 0.0146
335+ 0.0997 | 335+ 0.0108
340+ 0.0747 | 340+ 0.0080
345+ 0.0548 | 345+ 0.0057
350+ 0.0393 | 350+ 0.0041
355+ 0.0275 | 355+ 0.0029
360+ 0.0189 | 360+ 0.0020
365+ 0.0127 | 365+ 0.0013
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Obama has 3:1 chance of winning
According to this afternoon's Intrade state-by-state numbers (again, under certain assumptions), Obama is currently the favorite to win the 270+ electoral votes he needs to win the White House. His ~3:1 odds this afternoon are ~5% better than they were this morning, and ~10% better than yesterday morning.
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1 comment:
Mr Matt Hoffman :
I congratulate you on your excellent website, which I visit very often.
I share the idea that the INTRADE information is very important and crucial.
Pollsters that err do not lose money or feel the pain. Bettors are facing headaches if they do not act with knowledge, wisdom and careful consideration ( and a slimmer wallet ).
I imagine that many bettors know their State and therefore have "insider information", they know the towns, the mentality, the customs, traditions, etc... and they are in contact with their own folks. So their decision to bet is more informed and better.
I think that polls have one million holes leaking the gold of information. They make constant mistakes and always have biases.
What you do is to integrate that State wisdom into a national forecast.
It is a good prediction and more credible than many pollsters.
I hope that you continue after November 4 providing some analysis and simulations for us. I hope that we continue being informed by you in politics, marketing, trends, etc ....
Vicente Duque
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