Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
260+ 0.9985 | 260+ 0.0065
265+ 0.9977 | 265+ 0.0045
266+ 0.9976 | 266+ 0.0042
267+ 0.9974 | 267+ 0.0039
268+ 0.9971 | 268+ 0.0036
269+ 0.9969 | 269+ 0.0033
270+ 0.9967 | 270+ 0.0031
271+ 0.9964 | 271+ 0.0029
272+ 0.9961 | 272+ 0.0026
273+ 0.9958 | 273+ 0.0024
274+ 0.9955 | 274+ 0.0023
275+ 0.9951 | 275+ 0.0021
280+ 0.9930 | 280+ 0.0014
285+ 0.9900 | 285+ 0.0009
290+ 0.9857 | 290+ 0.0006
295+ 0.9794 | 295+ 0.0004
300+ 0.9709 | 300+ 0.0002
305+ 0.9589 | 305+ 0.0001
310+ 0.9422 | 310+ 0.0001
315+ 0.9200 | 315+ 0.0000
320+ 0.8913 | 320+ 0.0000
325+ 0.8548 | 325+ 0.0000
330+ 0.8080 | 330+ 0.0000
335+ 0.7552 | 335+ 0.0000
340+ 0.6914 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.6192 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.5415 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.4600 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.3793 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.2964 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.2270 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.1669 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.1144 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0782 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0519 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0333 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0213 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0133 | 405+ 0.0000
410+ 0.0082 | 410+ 0.0000
415+ 0.0050 | 415+ 0.0000
420+ 0.0028 | 420+ 0.0000
425+ 0.0015 | 425+ 0.0000
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