Monday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Mon. Nov. 3, the last day before the election. Apparently traders on Intrade have become significantly more confident in Obama's chances since yesterday -- his national Obama-to-win contract is above 90% for the first time I can think of, and my state-by-state simulations give McCain about a 0.5% chance to win.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 260+       0.9972    |    260+       0.0114
 265+       0.9959    |    265+       0.0080
 266+       0.9955    |    266+       0.0074
 267+       0.9952    |    267+       0.0069
 268+       0.9948    |    268+       0.0064
 269+       0.9944    |    269+       0.0060
 270+       0.9940    |    270+       0.0056
 271+       0.9936    |    271+       0.0052
 272+       0.9931    |    272+       0.0048
 273+       0.9926    |    273+       0.0045
 274+       0.9920    |    274+       0.0041
 275+       0.9914    |    275+       0.0039
 280+       0.9878    |    280+       0.0026
 285+       0.9828    |    285+       0.0018
 290+       0.9758    |    290+       0.0012
 295+       0.9661    |    295+       0.0008
 300+       0.9532    |    300+       0.0005
 305+       0.9361    |    305+       0.0003
 310+       0.9133    |    310+       0.0002
 315+       0.8848    |    315+       0.0001
 320+       0.8491    |    320+       0.0001
 325+       0.8057    |    325+       0.0000
 330+       0.7533    |    330+       0.0000
 335+       0.6946    |    335+       0.0000
 340+       0.6277    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.5544    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.4787    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.4013    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.3264    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2537    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1925    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1401    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0964    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0655    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0429    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0274    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0173    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0107    |    405+       0.0000
 410+       0.0065    |    410+       0.0000
 415+       0.0039    |    415+       0.0000
 420+       0.0022    |    420+       0.0000