Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
250+ 0.9990 | 250+ 0.0182
255+ 0.9984 | 255+ 0.0134
260+ 0.9976 | 260+ 0.0097
265+ 0.9964 | 265+ 0.0069
266+ 0.9961 | 266+ 0.0064
267+ 0.9958 | 267+ 0.0060
268+ 0.9955 | 268+ 0.0056
269+ 0.9951 | 269+ 0.0052
270+ 0.9948 | 270+ 0.0049
271+ 0.9944 | 271+ 0.0045
272+ 0.9940 | 272+ 0.0042
273+ 0.9936 | 273+ 0.0039
274+ 0.9931 | 274+ 0.0036
275+ 0.9926 | 275+ 0.0033
280+ 0.9897 | 280+ 0.0022
285+ 0.9857 | 285+ 0.0015
290+ 0.9806 | 290+ 0.0009
295+ 0.9737 | 295+ 0.0006
300+ 0.9648 | 300+ 0.0004
305+ 0.9530 | 305+ 0.0002
310+ 0.9370 | 310+ 0.0001
315+ 0.9171 | 315+ 0.0001
320+ 0.8911 | 320+ 0.0000
325+ 0.8580 | 325+ 0.0000
330+ 0.8164 | 330+ 0.0000
335+ 0.7680 | 335+ 0.0000
340+ 0.7086 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.6412 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.5661 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.4848 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.4054 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.3174 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.2442 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.1808 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.1205 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0809 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0534 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0342 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0220 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0140 | 405+ 0.0000
410+ 0.0086 | 410+ 0.0000
415+ 0.0052 | 415+ 0.0000
420+ 0.0029 | 420+ 0.0000
425+ 0.0015 | 425+ 0.0000
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