Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
255+ 0.9988 | 255+ 0.0110
260+ 0.9982 | 260+ 0.0077
265+ 0.9973 | 265+ 0.0053
266+ 0.9971 | 266+ 0.0050
267+ 0.9968 | 267+ 0.0046
268+ 0.9966 | 268+ 0.0043
269+ 0.9963 | 269+ 0.0040
270+ 0.9960 | 270+ 0.0037
271+ 0.9957 | 271+ 0.0034
272+ 0.9954 | 272+ 0.0032
273+ 0.9950 | 273+ 0.0029
274+ 0.9947 | 274+ 0.0027
275+ 0.9942 | 275+ 0.0025
280+ 0.9918 | 280+ 0.0017
285+ 0.9882 | 285+ 0.0011
290+ 0.9832 | 290+ 0.0007
295+ 0.9760 | 295+ 0.0005
300+ 0.9664 | 300+ 0.0003
305+ 0.9531 | 305+ 0.0002
310+ 0.9348 | 310+ 0.0001
315+ 0.9110 | 315+ 0.0001
320+ 0.8803 | 320+ 0.0000
325+ 0.8420 | 325+ 0.0000
330+ 0.7937 | 330+ 0.0000
335+ 0.7390 | 335+ 0.0000
340+ 0.6741 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.6012 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.5235 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.4427 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.3632 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.2836 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.2168 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.1591 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.1098 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0755 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0500 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0322 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0206 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0129 | 405+ 0.0000
410+ 0.0079 | 410+ 0.0000
415+ 0.0048 | 415+ 0.0000
420+ 0.0027 | 420+ 0.0000
425+ 0.0015 | 425+ 0.0000
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