Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
255+ 0.9997 | 255+ 0.0051
260+ 0.9994 | 260+ 0.0034
265+ 0.9991 | 265+ 0.0022
266+ 0.9990 | 266+ 0.0020
267+ 0.9989 | 267+ 0.0018
268+ 0.9987 | 268+ 0.0017
269+ 0.9986 | 269+ 0.0015
270+ 0.9985 | 270+ 0.0014
271+ 0.9983 | 271+ 0.0013
272+ 0.9982 | 272+ 0.0011
273+ 0.9980 | 273+ 0.0010
274+ 0.9978 | 274+ 0.0009
275+ 0.9976 | 275+ 0.0008
280+ 0.9964 | 280+ 0.0005
285+ 0.9945 | 285+ 0.0003
290+ 0.9920 | 290+ 0.0002
295+ 0.9886 | 295+ 0.0001
300+ 0.9839 | 300+ 0.0001
305+ 0.9782 | 305+ 0.0000
310+ 0.9697 | 310+ 0.0000
315+ 0.9604 | 315+ 0.0000
320+ 0.9483 | 320+ 0.0000
325+ 0.9317 | 325+ 0.0000
330+ 0.9107 | 330+ 0.0000
335+ 0.8834 | 335+ 0.0000
340+ 0.8457 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.7949 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.7326 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.6501 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.5639 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.4456 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.3494 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.2599 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.1679 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.1098 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0761 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0544 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0382 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0263 | 405+ 0.0000
410+ 0.0155 | 410+ 0.0000
415+ 0.0087 | 415+ 0.0000
420+ 0.0038 | 420+ 0.0000
425+ 0.0015 | 425+ 0.0000
430+ 0.0005 | 430+ 0.0000
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