Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Final odds on Obama's electoral margins

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Nov. 5. This is the last time I will post these numbers, and they're basically only interesting insofar as they give some insight into the potential magnitude of Obama's win. Thanks to everyone who's read over the past weeks!

Matt

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
285+ 0.9998 | 285+ 0.0000
290+ 0.9996 | 290+ 0.0000
295+ 0.9992 | 295+ 0.0000
300+ 0.9986 | 300+ 0.0000
305+ 0.9980 | 305+ 0.0000
310+ 0.9950 | 310+ 0.0000
315+ 0.9929 | 315+ 0.0000
320+ 0.9911 | 320+ 0.0000
325+ 0.9881 | 325+ 0.0000
330+ 0.9846 | 330+ 0.0000
335+ 0.9764 | 335+ 0.0000
340+ 0.9649 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.9448 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.9095 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.8417 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.7820 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.4779 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.2972 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.1981 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.0606 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0248 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0121 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0077 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0044 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0025 | 405+ 0.0000
410+ 0.0010 | 410+ 0.0000
415+ 0.0004 | 415+ 0.0000

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